BC OPTIONSLEARNING
Saved by @SAnngeri

Technical Analysis and 3 Strategies to deploy for Aggressive, Moderate, and Conservative Traders.

🧵Weekly Bank Nifty Analysis for 18th August Expiry:

 To form a view, let's have a look at:

1. Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis
2. Option Chain Data

Also, 3 strategies to deploy for:

1. Aggressive Traders (3.36%)
2. Moderate Risk Traders (1.89%)
3. Low-Risk Traders (0.72%)
1. Technicals

Let's start by doing some basic technical analysis.

We'll look at:

• Weekly charts
• Daily charts.
• Hourly / 60 min charts.
1. Weekly-

• The market has broken out from the trendline and is extremely bullish.

• However, also note that there are 4 continuous green candles in the weekly chart.

• Until Bnf closes below the current green candle low which is 37680, bias should not be bearish.
2. Daily:

• Candlestick pattern—Bullish Marubozu on the daily timeframe.

• Chart Pattern—Gave a rectangle breakout and is running up.

Buyers are in control so until we close below the wick made today can't take aggressive bearish positions.
3. Hourly

• We are in a higher high and higher low formation in the hourly chart. (Bullish)

• It's going up continuously which means there is buying pressure present on every dip.

• Support on the hourly chart for the week comes at 38180.
Option chain data:

• Opstra shows that the options chain data is bullish.

• ATM Puts were being written very aggressively yesterday and that's the strike where the highest number of puts are sold on Friday.

• Data is matching with our bias and technicals which are bullish.
Strategies to deploy?

1. Aggressive Traders

Aggressive traders would have sold puts as market closed at day high.

For eg, 38200 puts with a stop loss of 38600.

ROI is around 3.36%
2. Moderate Risk Traders

Can sell 38000 puts with a stop loss of 38400.

ROI is approximately 1.89%.
3. Conservative Traders

Can sell strangles of 37500 puts and 40100 calls. Fetches you approximately 0.72% ROI.

You guys should be targeting 2% per month and playing far away from spot levels of BNF.

4 expires per month to make 0.50% each week and end with 2%.
If you ❤️ this analysis and derived some value from it, consider liking and sharing the first tweet.

Check out @niki_poojary's analysis which she will post before Tuesday, hers is a bit different from mine each time.

Retweet the first tweet and help others find this Thread.

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0/ Who is this for?

This will greatly benefit people who freeze when it comes to managing their trades and keep booking losses.

Some trade with too much fear as well when things go wrong.

Knowing these adjustments will give you the confidence to try to manage your trades.

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Let's begin by having a look at the adjustments.

Here is the adjustment number 1 below.

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Option sellers specially Straddle sellers feel that rising premiums give them excellent opportunity to make easy money. So what they are seeing is the theta aspect of options & ignoring the delta/gamma/vega forces.

1/

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Adjusting during such delta moves involves high slippages. Such costs go in our system & are irrecoverable. So if the ATM straddle is around 400 & after 200 point downmove, the next straddle is at 450 & the loss is not just 50points but compounded much more.

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Again sharing bank nifty intraday weekly straddle. How to play by selling straddle.
Mostly will work on Monday to Wednesday. Sometimes on Friday.
Why to pay your money to learn this if u can get it here.
U need only practice.
Let’s go.

Say bank nifty future is at 32000.
Sell both 32000 call and put.
Considering current volatile market lest say premium on Monday morning is 350 on both sides.
Sold with 700 points combine premium.
If bank nifty will trade in narrow range say +\- 100 hold it.
If moving 200 points

then exit previous sold straddle. Sell new one. Let’s say BN moved +200
Now sell 32200. If bank nifty will move here within range then u will get profit through theta decay. Follow same procedure for next 150-200 pts move.

This is only for single straddle sell position.

Now in second case sell three straddle. 31900/32000/32100
In case of 100 points move no need to change.
If 200 + then future is 32200.
Exit 31900 and sell 31200 straddle.
If moving another 100 then exit 32000 and sell 32300. Continue same with 100 points move.
If no move then

it will consolidate between 32000-32200 or 32100 to 32300 and u will get theta decay.

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How to sell option?
Here let me explain through simple math.
Say BN at 30000
30000 straddle trading at combine premium 800 ( based on current volatility)
Put at 400
Call at 400
You don’t know direction. Sold both.

If move will not come than both will decrease gradually.

At day end it will come down to 720-740 if move will not come. Difference is your profit.

Now case 2:
Move started.
At one points combine premium will start increasing.
Say 810.
Exit immediately. No need to do adjustment.
Let market settle.

Sell again straddle once market settle.
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One can keep SL 550 for both strike to escape from sudden movement.
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