BC MATHS
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

Sir Desmond is right. SAGE makes mathematical predictions based on flawed models.
I chose to stick my neck out almost 4mo ago here:
https://t.co/b0rT5Lq9HI
I experienced much anxiety doing this, aware that, if I was badly wrong here, I would be destroyed as a contributor.

 @DesmondSwayne That said, I thought the immunology so clear that I made three, specific & testable predictions which should apply if I was right.
Please examine them, on the right, under the pie chart:
@DesmondSwayne In particular, I predicted that the epidemic would not reignite in London. Obviously, we have many “cases” but I urge people to disregard these & instead to look at excess deaths, on the principle that a severe (occasionally lethal) respiratory virus would show itself this way.
@DesmondSwayne Here is a chart showing the trend of deaths in London alone over recent years. A prominent peak of deaths is evident as the virus swept through in spring. Also visible the August heatwave. But there are no excess deaths now.
I submit this is a striking example of herd immunity.
@DesmondSwayne I’m still waiting for SAGE or indeed anyone to provide an alternative explanation for the sharp nature of the spring excess deaths peak which doesn’t involve herd immunity or otherwise removing from the pool those vulnerable to lethal outcomes (same result). Given this sharp...
@DesmondSwayne ...turning point, which occurred in time too soon after ‘lockdown’ to have been caused by it, I have wracked my brains & asked dozens of scientists. No one has proffered an interpretation that permits the same population to support a large, growing outbreak of the same virus...
@DesmondSwayne ...again later in the same year. The general rule in immunology is that, upon infection by what I term a ‘plain respiratory virus’, the subject develops humoral (antibody) & cellular (T-cell mediated) immunity, which is robust & durable. The next time the subject encounters the..
@DesmondSwayne ...same virus, if it’s sufficiently soon after the first infection, antibodies may be protective. However if it’s later, when circulating antibody levels have decayed, instead memory T-cells afford that protection from illness. Because this prevents much replication of the...
@DesmondSwayne ...virus, such immunity also prevents the immune subject from becoming a source for onward transmission. Hence it was paradoxical & I believe wrong for Van Tam yesterday to assert that “vaccines would protect vs severe illness but might not diminish transmission”. I’d expect...
@DesmondSwayne ...the opposite: that, if vaccines had some protective effect, it’d first be apparent by reducing transmission but might not be completely protective vs severe illness.
Turning back to the my article “What SAGE Got Wrong” (which was drafted in Sept & published mid-Oct), I...
@DesmondSwayne ...made a number of predictions based on my understanding of the position & contrasted what should happen if SAGE’s pronouncements were instead correct. By inspection, it is clear I was correct in all particulars. I’ve mentioned lack of a major outbreak in London. Recall that...
@DesmondSwayne ...in spring, London was the national epicentre, with several hundred deaths per day at peak. SAGE asserted that “sadly, the vast majority of the population remains susceptible to the virus”. I knew that was impossible based merely upon the shape of the excess deaths curve.
@DesmondSwayne But more than that, but consonant with it we had, by then, seen a dozen good quality, peer-reviewed journal articles from respected groups in top publications like Science & Nature, all of which showed prominent, PRIOR immunity to SARS-COV-2, in people who’d never seen the...
@DesmondSwayne ...virus. Two of those papers dissected the immune recognition involved & showed conclusively that shared regions of SARS-COV-2 & some endemic, common cold producing endemic coronaviruses were responsible for prior T-cell immunity. Taking all the published literature on this...
@DesmondSwayne ...topic together, it is clear that something between 30% & 60% of us already had immunity to the new virus. I’m inclined to take around 50% as most likely now that several other papers have emerged, higher than I’d thought back in September. On the other hand, I’d over-
@DesmondSwayne ...estimated the proportion of the population who’d by then been infected, because I used too low an estimate for ‘infection fatality ratio’, failing to take account of our older population (Dr John Ioaniddes work here is seminal). The combination though of greater prior immunity
@DesmondSwayne ...& lesser infected & recovered (and therefore immune) people leads us to the same place, based on the immunology: that there are too few remaining susceptible people to permit a large, consolidated & growing outbreak of the same virus (aka herd immunity).
I also predicted...
@DesmondSwayne ...that excess deaths would be distinctly regional because not all regions had been as intensely infected as was London by the time the seasonality aspect contributed to termination of the outbreak. Sure enough, students of Joel Smalley’s careful work shows precisely this.
@DesmondSwayne If you look at his ‘Questions for MPs’ presentations, it is clear that the bulk of the covid19 deaths in late autumn & winter came from geographies less involved in spring, right down to subregional levels. Finally, I predicted that any excess deaths from the virus would show...
@DesmondSwayne ...themselves by rising much more slowly than in spring, because the aggregate of mini-outbreaks each have the classic Gompertz curves but the mean of these, uncoordinated in time across separated geographies, has a lower gradient than the much more highly coordinated picture...
@DesmondSwayne ...of spring.
But what of SAGE’s predictions? If they were right & 93% were still susceptible, we’d expect a very similar pattern of lethality as in spring. London would be a very prominent contributor. Most regions would again be hit. The evident excess deaths would appear in...
@DesmondSwayne ...a coordinated manner, giving rise to a sharp ‘spike’ in excess deaths.
None of these three things occurred. SAGE therefore was definitely wrong. Whether my predictions were spot on for the precise reasons I gave or for other reasons is for others to judge.
Lockdown fans...
@DesmondSwayne ...will doubtless point to the claimed ‘covid19 deaths’ recently and say “Yeadon is wrong”. I respectfully ask you to notice that these deaths are merely attributed to the virus & this was done purely on the basis that they’d had a positive PCR test in the preceding 28d. But...
@DesmondSwayne ...if the attribution was correct, those ‘covid19 deaths’ would be additional to deaths from all other causes. They are not: as claimed covid19 deaths have risen, deaths from other causes has fallen, including deaths from the most common causes, ones which cannot really fall...
@DesmondSwayne ...as a result of reduced activity (such as road traffic deaths). I cannot think of a clearer example of misattribution than this. Again, please see Joel Smalley’s analysis of publicly available data. I submit that the majority of these recent ‘covid19 deaths’ are misattributed.
@DesmondSwayne I don’t blame physicians in this narrow sense, in that they’re driven by the 28d rule to assign covid19 as the or a cause of death, even if the deceased showed no signs consistent with viral respiratory death (typically pneumonia). I further submit that, far from deaths from...
@DesmondSwayne ...all other causes being lower that the mean of the last 5 years (surely this stretches everyone’s credulity beyond breaking point? His can reduced access to the NHS for 9mo be associated with fewer deaths?), they really are GREATER. So the claimed ‘covid19 deaths’ are...
@DesmondSwayne ...properly to be reduced both by the claimed decrement in all other causes AND by an unknown amount due to reduced access to the NHS PLUS severe persistent stress from the situation. Without overdoing this point at all, the number of daily deaths from what does look like...
@DesmondSwayne ...respiratory virus infection is then the same as, or lower than, the daily numbers if of deaths from influenza in an average winter. There’s nothing much left to explain.
The dominant reason for misattribution, positive PCR test results are, IMO, completely untrustworthy.
@DesmondSwayne This article attempts to explain the sources of error in PCR mass testing: https://t.co/7tdvEaNSvN
Potential for integrity destroying cross contamination exists. Those running these private ‘Lighthouse Labs’ simply will not engage in courteous discourse & instead, despite being..
@DesmondSwayne ...university professors, resort immediately to what’s best described as potty-mouthed insults. It’s generally the case that those with no real foundations resort to such tactics. What’s beyond doubt is that any valid test has been characterised by independent 3rd parties.
@DesmondSwayne However, no one has been permitted to inspect or to even see assessments of the operational false positive rate for the tests as configured. Such a test, lacking the absolutely required characterisation, should NOT be in use at all.
If anyone wants to rely on results from...
@DesmondSwayne ...such a facility, be my guest. But I’ve long ago decided to discount all their results & claims that there are masses of “cases” daily, on the basis of which the country is progressively being placed into something approaching house arrest. Do note though, that on every one...
@DesmondSwayne ...of half a dozen or more occasions, where recent results from PCR mass testing have been checked, they have always been shown to have greatly exaggerated the position. Instead, re-checking with PCR or testing with rapid antigen tests always show far lower prevalence. Finally,
@DesmondSwayne ...I can only point out that people like me, Joel Smalley, Dr Clare Craig, Dr Jonathan Engler & others have absolutely no influence on what is happening in our country. Do not wait for us to shake the politicians into wakefulness. Many of them already know that what I’ve told...
@DesmondSwayne ...you here is broadly correct & that what SAGE is advising is way off base. I know this because they’ve told me so (recall we sent a short briefing to 650 MPs & 400 members of the Lords prior to the ‘It’ll end in Tiers” vote. We also spoke at length to some MPs. So they do know.
@DesmondSwayne I do not understand the political process but this episode has shown me the distinct limits of what I can do which, beyond what I’ve already done, is absolutely nothing. If you like me want dearly to rescue your country before it is irreversibly damaged by madcap responses,
@DesmondSwayne ..,guided by SAGE (for whatever motives, about which I never speculate, because it’s not a science at all) then YOU the people must find ways to force politicians to pay attention & to alter course. I don’t know how to do that, but it is essential. Good luck to us all!
@DesmondSwayne @threadreaderapp unroll

More from Yardley Yeadon

Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
Postcard From Luxembourg: normality is restored prior to vaccination.
I’ve repeatedly said that “test, test, test” is madness, if the tests are unregulated. Why?
‘Because pandemic’, NO PCR mass testing has a declared operational false positive rate.

So we don’t know the oFPR of PCR mass testing in U.K. This is conducted in a small number of private labs, set up at pace in summer, anticipating a ‘2nd wave’ (itself a dubious prediction from the Imperial team who’ve been wrong every time before). You’d assume these “Lighthouse

...Labs are surely regulated, inspected, accredited etc. They’re doing the most impactful medical diagnostic testing which has ever happened in history. But no. None of these are true. ‘Because pandemic’. Now, I don’t know the oFPR either. But we’re paying for it. It is NOT ZERO.

However, the authorities take every positive result as a “confirmed case” (though there’s nothing confirmed). There is no open protocol you can examine & debate. None of the results are available for understanding, thinking & interpretation. Wouldn’t it be important to learn...

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In a number of Sunday papers:
Scientific advisers said it was “hard to see” when the restrictions would end as new variants continued to emerge, delivering a potentially devastating blow to the travel industry. The prime minister said that after progress with vaccinations...

...”what we don’t want to see is all that work undone by the arrival of a new variant that is vaccine-busting”.
The idea is planted in people’s mind that this virus is mutating in such a way as to evade prior immunity. This is completely unfounded, certainly as regards immunity..

...gained naturally, after repelling the virus (which well around 99.9% of the population do, fewer, obviously in the very elderly & already ill, more in those younger & well). It’s important to appreciate that upon infection, the human immune system cuts up an infectious...

...agent into short pieces. Each of these short pieces of protein are presented to other cells in the immune system, like an identity parade. Our cells have a truly astonishing range of abilities to recognise different protein structures, and there will be some which recognise...

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Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
I urge all followers who have read my criticisms of PCR mass testing in U.K. to carefully read Mr Fordham’s carefully worded letter. Note that the innovation minister in the Lords, Lord Bethel, already admitted that the PCR system doesn’t have the equivalent of an MOT. https://t.co/zXzeDMKCBb


Without this information it’s impossible to interpret any result. If the oFPR is 4%, for example, and if the true prevalence is 0.3% (it’s probably less), then for every 10,000 tests, 400 positives would be false & 30 positives would be genuine. So 93% of positives are false.

As Mr Fordham points out, almost all policies pivot on PCR mass testing. Hancock previously admitted on talkRADIO to Julia Hartley-Brewer in late summer that the FPR was “just under 1%”. That was a flat lie (possibly inadvertent but he’s never corrected the record). The reason...

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...architecture & the like can radically alter the oFPR. Since Hancock’s remark in late summer, PCR mass testing has moved into the Lighthouse Labs & this creates a new & urgent need to continually assess oFPR. I’ve good reason to believe it’s now VERY much higher now that the...
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Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
@ukiswitheu I invite people to run the thought experiment: “what if the ‘cases’ data is inaccurate?”
Ignore ‘cases’, look instead only at excess deaths (per M Levitt’s tweet). Does that look characteristic of an epidemic? It’s completely diff from spring or any winter flu outbreak.
London:


Can anyone explain why there is no ‘2nd wave’ of excess deaths in London, without invoking herd immunity?
It’s not lockdown. See NW England:
This is the largest #SecondaryRipple (which I predicted).


https://t.co/b0rT5Lq9HI
Now check the 3 predictions I made months ago. They’ve all happened. Compare predictions from SAGE’s statements: they’re all wrong.
Even neutrals at this point might ask themselves “if he’s been right on all predictions, maybe he’s correct now?”


I’ve been saying since the Lighthouse Labs got up & running that I’m deeply sceptical about the trustworthiness of their ‘cases’ data. I showed how, at low virus prevalence, the PCR mass testing data was throwing out potentially 90% positives being

https://t.co/t4qQN4rH0u
I got ‘fact checked’ a LOT over that statement. This paper just published, about precisely that time period I speculated about. Turns out that high-80s% of Dr Healy’s positives by PCR were FALSE. This alone is sufficient in my view to throw severe doubt...
FOR LATER READ
Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
@scottorandojin What if the false diagnosis rate was 90%?
Don’t misunderstand me. I’m a thorough believer in the existence of this virus.

To exemplify: the NHS is under severe winter pressure. Many staff are unavailable, largely due to forced isolation from testing. Also, I’m told the adaptations to the conditions make normal work almost impossible. Trying to keep apart patients in different categories must be...

...incredibly stressful. I doubt I could ever have coped. Add to this the real stream of sick people & it’s a complete nightmare. My sympathies won’t be accepted but I offer them anyway. As to “the deaths”, do you mean the reported count of “covid19 deaths”? Everyone is doing...

...their very best. But as to that count: it’s nothing to do with clinical judgement. A covid19 death is a death from any cause within 28d of a positive test. So once a person is labelled by a positive test, if they then die, they’re a covid19 death. Back to my substantive...

...question: how reliable is that labelling? It’s not a clinical diagnosis. We’re not used to this idea. Never before in medical history has someone had a disease (let alone cause of death) been defined by the result of a single year alone. Yet that’s where we are. I think that..
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The problems of 3rd grade mathematics work sheets are experienced by many children and their parents are usually frustrated. There is no more, there is information about how to solve the problem of your Mathematics task for children ... My suggestions will help.


Your child needs help with his homework and is useful if you as a parent know how to handle the problems of 3RD mathematics worksheets as follows:
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Michael Kinyon
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@ProfKinyon
Loops and their multiplication groups

A thread in 15 parts

(0/15)

Recall that a quasigroup (Q,*) is a set Q with a binary operation * such that for each a,b in Q, the equations a*x=b and y*a=b have unique solutions x,y. Groups are quasigroups and this property is usually one of the first things proved in elementary group theory.

(1/15)

Note that we don't assume associativity of *!

A loop is a quasigroup with an identity element. The story of why they are called loops is an interesting one and may even be true, but I will save it for another day. I am going to focus on loops in this thread.

(2/15)

Natural examples of nonassociative loops:
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- The sphere S^7 under octonion multiplication
- I have discussed other examples


For each x in a loop Q, define the left & right translations L_x, R_x : Q->Q by L_x(y)=xy and R_x(y)=yx. These mappings are permutations of Q. The composition L_x L_y of two left translations is not necessarily a left translation because Q is not necessarily associative.

(4/15)
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Algebra Etc.
Algebra Etc.
@AlgebraFact
How to mentally compute the cube root of the cube of a two digit number.

Thread (1/10)

In base 10, the last digits of the cubes of digits are distinct.

If d = 0, 1, 4, 5, 6, or 9, then d^3 ends in d.

If d = 2, 3, 7, or 8, then d^3 ends in 10-d.

(2/10)

So if you're given the cube of an integer, you can figure out the last digit of the cube root.

For example, if 50653 is the cube of an integer, it's the cube of a number ending in 7.

(3/10)

Let n = 10a + b be a two-digit number, with a and b single digit numbers.

Then 10a <= n <= 10(a+1), and so n^3 is between (10a)^3 and (10(a+1))^3, i.e. between 1000 a^3 and 1000 (a+1)^3.

(4/10)

So suppose x is the cube of a two-digit number n = 10a + b.

Chop off the last three digits of x.

Then a, the first digit of n, is the largest number whose cube is no greater than what's left of x.

(5/10)
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Patrick K A Kearns
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@kearnsneuro
It is trying when mathematicians declare condescendingly that there is no point doing things because their models tell them so. Well maybe some of the assumptions don't hold up. How did that work out for the no additional risk from large events and no point in border controls...


During wave 1 cases fell very fast, faster than I think most people were expecting. Particularly in Scotland. Rt was probably ~0.5 until we started easing off.

This was despite a constant leak of cases coming out of hospitals and LTC facilities as we were rationing PPE and are policies were nowhere near ideal. There was insistence from infection control that droplet protections were sufficient. We have all learned a lot since then.

Not to mention we have learned to avoid the shit show of actively importing cases into care homes. We've learned not to repeat that. Other sectors have learned too.

We've learned a lot and there's no reason we can't control this new variant. But we will not manage if we don't try and act with clarity of purpose.
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Arthouse-Kuklite
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1st grade mathematics work sheets and my mother's mathematics teaching style. Mathematics will not be so terrible, since it seems that parents are interested in preparing their little ones for mathematics before school age.


I grew up without understanding how people talk about mathematics as difficult as they do, it was my best topic at school.
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கோளறு பதிகம் - This pathigam was sung by Thirugnana Sambandar at Thirumaraikadu Kshetram -Vedaranyam,Tamilnadu

Thirugnana Sambandar & Appar(Thirunavukkarasar) travelled together to various Shiva Alayam to spread shivam & bhakti among people.They both reached Thirumaraikadu.


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