eComm and D2C will be acutely impaired by the ATT opt-in mechanic coming to iOS (rumored made mandatory in March). ATT doesnt exclusively impact app advertisers, & in fact may disproportionately damage eComm and D2C. Some thoughts on how those advertisers should prepare (1/X)

2/ In the @MobileDevMemo 2020 mobile advertising predictions post, I posit that D2C ad spend may drop by as much as 50% in Q2 2020. FB revealed in December that app-to-web campaigns will be governed by ATT opt in, severely limiting campaign efficiency https://t.co/0llZjphmHN
3/ FB had only previously discussed ATT in terms of app campaign relevance. This new revelation likely stemmed from further instructions from Apple following FB's initial guidance https://t.co/ijoaFyXml6
4/ FB affirmed in Dec that app-to-web campaigns will be: conversion event limited, aggregated at campaign level, and limited wrt attribution windows (default: 7-day click). This effectively replicates the privacy treatment of app campaigns on app-to-web campaigns
5/ Adam Lovallo from https://t.co/baV6VrUW7E describes 28-day click / 1-day view the "gold standard" for D2C. Why would FB change the default to 7-day? Because it is aggregating conversions at the campaign level -- universally, with what it is calling Aggregated Event Measurement
6/ This means that the intel that many D2C / ecomm consultants and agencies are dispensing around the conversions API (CAPI) being a panacea here for conversions collection / targeting is invalid unless the user opts in. Conversions are being aggregated at the campaign level
7/ Why is this important? Few reasons. First -- just as with for apps -- the user-centric monetization behavior data that drives campaign performance through personalization will be severely diminished. How much is that worth? FB says 50% of CPM https://t.co/IXxISE3bwh
8/ Second: 7-day click will simply drop a lot of conversions. So not only is targeting losing a substantial amount of precision (bc FB will lose visibility into who spends money on D2C ads & thus should be targeted) but measurement will suffer from loss of data
9/ How should D2C and ecomm advertisers prepare? There are no "quick tips" or clever tricks here: this is a tectonic shift in digital advertising. Sure, implement CAPI -- why not. But pivoting through this requires making fundamental changes to advertising strategy
10/ Understanding the impact of these changes requires acknowledging that the D2C category really only rose to prominence as a result of directly-attributable campaigns on FB & other channels that provided for user-centric monetization profiles / targeting https://t.co/DTRShHDpJ4
11/ When that evaporates w campaign-level aggregation, so does much of the opportunity. eComm & D2C advertisers must wrap their arms around as much first party data as possible to preserve the link. This article from Common Thread provides helpful guidance https://t.co/u9mfbtny58

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The emergence of many new hypocrisies typically heralds an emerging new cultural synthesis.

Are you disturbed that you agree with one of those viewpoints? Or perhaps that other people you respect do?

1/x


Let me offer a framework for thinking about things like this, something called an “Omega Event.”

It was first described to me by Erik Martin, one of Reddit's first community managers:

In governance, Omega Events exist due to the fact that no system of beliefs, no worldview, no set of rules, can account for everything that will ever happen.

Eventually someone (or some group) will do something that lies outside the scope of all existing rules, and you will have to make decisions again from first principles.

Sometimes the Omega Event emerges from the confluence of many unrelated factors. When it does, it is wholly different from anything you’ve encountered.

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Great article from @AsheSchow. I lived thru the 'Satanic Panic' of the 1980's/early 1990's asking myself "Has eveyrbody lost their GODDAMN MINDS?!"


The 3 big things that made the 1980's/early 1990's surreal for me.

1) Satanic Panic - satanism in the day cares ahhhh!

2) "Repressed memory" syndrome

3) Facilitated Communication [FC]

All 3 led to massive abuse.

"Therapists" -and I use the term to describe these quacks loosely - would hypnotize people & convince they they were 'reliving' past memories of Mom & Dad killing babies in Satanic rituals in the basement while they were growing up.

Other 'therapists' would badger kids until they invented stories about watching alligators eat babies dropped into a lake from a hot air balloon. Kids would deny anything happened for hours until the therapist 'broke through' and 'found' the 'truth'.

FC was a movement that started with the claim severely handicapped individuals were able to 'type' legible sentences & communicate if a 'helper' guided their hands over a keyboard.