I turned 30 recently.

While far from old and wise, I have learned a few things along the way - on life, business, writing, investing, and growth.

Here are a few important lessons learned...

Survivorship Bias 101

History is written by the victors. But if we exclusively focus on these successes, we allow survivorship bias to distort our understanding of the world.

But what is "survivorship bias" and how does it work?

Here's Survivorship Bias 101!

👇👇👇

1/ First, a few definitions.

Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on survivors (successes) and ignoring casualties (failures).

When we do so, we miss the true "base rates" of survival (the actual probability of success) and arrive at flawed conclusions.

2/ When we completely ignore failures, we lose our ability to correctly identify the differences between successes and failures.

Put simply, exclusively focusing on successes may actually inhibit our ability to identify (and replicate) the actions that led to such success.

3/ Cicero wrote on the topic over 2,000 years ago.

An atheist named Diagoras is shown portraits of people who prayed and were saved from death at sea as proof of God's existence.

Diagoras replies, "I see those who were saved, but where are those painted who were shipwrecked?"

4/ Cicero cuts right to the point - we cannot conclude that prayer led to being saved from the sea if we ignore those who prayed and then drowned.

Survivorship bias can lead to a deeply-flawed understanding of cause-and-effect relationships.

Let's look at some examples.

Circle of Competence 101

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger often reference the importance of knowing the boundaries of your circle of competence.

But what is a Circle of Competence and how does it work?

Here's Circle of Competence 101!

1/ First, a few definitions.

A Circle of Competence is the set of topic areas that align with a person's expertise.

If the entire world of information were to be expressed in a circle, an individual's Circle of Competence is the small sub-circle that represents their expertise.

2/ The idea surfaced in the 1996 BH annual letter.

"You don’t have to be an expert on every company...you only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital."

3/ A Circle of Competence is built over time.

It is built through experience, reading, dedicated study, and effort.

It is dynamic, not static.

It can expand as you deepen your knowledge in new areas. It can contract if you fail to nurture your existing areas of expertise.

4/ To engage this mental model in your life, there are two key processes to go through:

(1) Identify what falls within your circle
(2) Identify the boundaries of your circle

(1) is all about figuring out what you know, while (2) is about humbly admitting what you don’t.

I recently found out I'm going to be a father.

Here are the principles I want to teach my child to live by:

Be Interested

Talent is overrated—interest is not.

Interested people are prone to giving their deep attention to something to discover more about it.

They ask questions, listen, & observe. They open up to the world around them.

Being interested is a key to a fulfilling life.

Different is Beautiful

Growing up, I feared being different—I desperately wanted to fit in.

I made bad decisions grounded in insecurity.

I only realized later: being different is your edge—your ultimate competitive advantage.

No one can compete with you, at being you.

Work Hard

If you want to accomplish anything in life, you have to work hard.

Don't believe the hype. Hard work isn't the sexy, flashy Instagram posts saying "rise & grind”—it's the ugly, painful effort in the dark, when no one is watching.

If you want something, go get it.

Show Up in the Darkest Hour

It's easy to be there for people to celebrate their wins.

It takes character to show up for them in their darkest hour.

People never forget who supported them when the chips were down.

Be the friend who is always there—in good times and bad.

Make them irrelevant > Hold a grudge

Holding a grudge is the easy thing to do.

But holding a grudge is not the right thing to do.

A grudge puts poison in your body & rewires your subconscious mind.

You consume the poison & destroy your reality while your attacker sleeps like a baby.

MY JOURNEY AS A DIESEL PLANT FITTER
My journey started in March 2005 when I got an offer of apprenticeship from CMED. I knew nothing about cars and earthmoving equipment.

I also did not know what a Diesel plant fitter was (our education should do better on this front, careers should not be accidental). When I was chasing apprenticeship, I wanted to be an Auto electrician. When the CMED advert came out I did not have a driver’s licence

or learners’ licence, which is a prerequisite if you want to train in the Automotive industry. Diesel Plant Fitting is classified under the Mechanical Industry, so a driver’s licence is not required on application. I was, however, asked for it during my interview and I had one

The interview was hilarious, I cracked their ribs every now and then but that is where I learnt how to take control of an interview. (I knew no one there as well). I told them from the onset that I knew nothing about the trade, but keen to learn, that is why I applied

They asked me what I knew about mechanics in general. I responded that I knew bicycle mechanics because that it what we had at home and everything else contained in the O level integrated science book Science in Zimbabwe. So, they asked me about stuff that was in

[THREAD] How To Find A Mentor (No Matter What Industry You're In)

I have attracted dozens of mentors since I was a teenager. As I've gotten older, I've realized these relationships were the secret to my growth.

Here's how to find mentors of your own 👇👇👇

1/ Don't obsess over finding The Expert.

This is the BIG mistake anyone looking for someone to "mentor them" makes.

All you need is to find someone who knows the very-next-thing you want to learn. Technically, anyone "a little bit further along" can be your mentor.

2/ Start to see everyone around you as A Mentor

- Your co-worker with 1-2 yrs more experience is a mentor
- Your family friend who is always telling "war stories" is a mentor
- Your neighbor, cousin, aunt, uncle who has done what you're trying to do, can all be mentors

3/ Start with 1 question

Mentorship isn't a formal agreement. You don't ask, "Will you be my mentor for life?"

The key is to ask 1 question. See if the person gives you guidance.

Take that guidance. Apply it. Go back and ask a 2nd question. See if they reciprocate.

Repeat.

4/ True mentorships are mutually beneficial

Mentors want to share what they know with people who listen carefully & apply their wisdom.

Why?

It allows the mentor a "2nd chance" at walking their path, imagining what might have happened if they'd known what they know now, sooner

The 25 Worst Pieces of Advice I've Seen

(and why)

// THREAD

1. “Follow your passion.”

NO - stop wasting your time. Make money.

Then you use your wealth to pursue your passion.

Build the foundation first.

2. “Choose career over family.”

I see so many slaving at their job and it’s usually a dead-end job. They pay little attention to their children. It’s sad.

If you have to choose one always choose family.

Rich people choose both.

3. “Just walk away.”

If someone damages your reputation you need to defend it. Fight hard. Your name is your honor.

4. “Never trust anyone.”

Jaded people think like this.

Yes, humans make decisions in their best interests.

That our nature. Deal with it.

"Never trust anyone" is a reflection of personal darkness.