29 December 2020 #MAGAanalysis #Overturn

Comments On @OptimisticCon Article:

The key supporting effort appears to be underway on Trump’s operational timeline

As we emphasized yesterday, J.E. Dyer commands us: "But do hold the line."

7 December 2020 #MAGAanalysis #LevinSavesAmerica

We're In Historic Real Time

Today's work will have even more moving parts than usual. But one part more important than any other is last night's @marklevinshow's historically transformational

11 January 2020 #MAGAanalysis #Overturn

Information, Disinformation, And Overwhelm

In these weeks since the election, I feel like I've begun to come to understand the world of intelligence officers and analysts a great deal more than ever before.

15 January 2020 #MAGAanalysis #Overturn

The Burden Of Command, Or If I Were Trump Right Now

I'll get a few more hours sleep after posting this early morning's thread. It's just after 3:30 AM, EST. The dream for America that I dreamed awakened me, and so here I am.

Prepping for today's thread, the story of the CURRENT CYBERWAR is clearly overwhelming. J.E. Dyer @OptimisticCon links us to this story. Just one quote to

16 January 2021 #MAGAanalysis #Overturn

The Man Who Met Himself

First, I have to again thank @BernadetteMay for the delightful and foretelling new banner photo I stole from her. It is truly profound and hopefully prophetic.

Here's an overview of key adoption metrics for deep learning frameworks over 2020: downloads, developer surveys, job posts, scientific publications, Colab usage, Kaggle notebooks usage, GitHub data.

TensorFlow/Keras = #1 deep learning solution.

Note that we benchmark adoption vs Facebook's PyTorch because it is the only TF alternative that registers on the scale. Another option would have been sklearn, which has massive adoption, but it isn't really a TF alternative. In the future, I hope we can add JAX.

TensorFlow has seen 115M downloads in 2020, which nearly doubles its lifetime downloads. Note that this does *not* include downloads for all TF-adjacent packages, like tf-nightly, the old tensorflow-gpu, etc.

Also note that most of these downloads aren't from humans, but are automated downloads from CI systems (but none are from Google's systems, as Google doesn't use PyPI).

In a way, this metric reflects usage in production.

There were two worldwide developer surveys in 2020 that measured adoption of various frameworks: the one from StackOverflow, targeting all developers, and the one from Kaggle.

If you're looking at GA EV data and thinking maybe the reason D turnout looks strong relative to 11/3 is because after 2 months of Trump/GOP officials trashing mail-in ballots GOP voters are ditching it for E-Day instead...

Boy do I have some mindblowing statistics for you...

I compared the current mail-in voting tallies for each Congressional District against November mail-in votes for those districts.

The statewide figure currently sits at 62%. Guess which district leads the state?

You guessed it!

GA-14 at 69%. Marjorie Taylor Greene's district.

#2 is GA-8 at 68%.

Jody Hice of "I'm joining Marjorie Taylor Greene in her effort to throw out the Electoral College vote" fame.

GA-9 (Doug Collins) is above the state average at 64%.

IF Republicans were ditching absentee balloting en masse to vote on Election Day, you'd expect to see it by now. But the early *in-person* voting totals are what's actually lagging, not mail-in voting.

Pardon the sloppy spreadsheet, but those last 4 columns are what I'm looking at. The last one in particular.

time to get back to "repairing" old computers

The funny thing about making the 8-bit-guy into a meme about "repairing" computers with powertools is that the obvious heightening joke would, like, the "8 rounds guy", who fixes computers with firearms

but that would also be him, given that he's also a big gun enthusiast.

so it's inherently hard to satirize the repairing-computers-with-dremels guy, since they're also the guns-guy.

you'd have to go up to like a mythbusters level of overkill.

"this hard drive from 1986 won't spin up. We tried freezing it, tapping it with a rubber hammer, and opening the case to lower the friction... there's only one option left: GET OUT THE C4 EXPLOSIVES!"

Play is our future

Skill is measurable w/ two resources 1) time, 2) energy

Players whose actions make better use of these resources can be defined as optimal. This is not subjective

Time (faster)/overload/conscious/stress
Energy(easier)/underload/unconscious/low anxiety

Orgel's First Rule:

"Whenever a spontaneous process is too slow or too inefficient a protein will evolve to speed it up or make it more efficient."

Faster (speed/strength)-Deliberate Practice
Easier--Play

Overload (D.Practice) builds faster=hypertrophy and results in measurable selection resulting in problems such as Relative Age Effect, and players with very fast cars saddled with inexperienced drivers

It's more likely to be wrapped around a tree than finish the race.

as Orgel says, if we allow it, play will produce faster and easier

Kids in play build the driving sills first, in Go Karts, like Ayrton Senna

Big brains, slow cars, easier

But where speed is limited by physics,

Ideas are plentiful and under resourced in US youth sport

Almost every coach will agree w/ the following

Competition is important
Training is more important than games
Play is more important than both

But,

the big thing is to keep the big thing the big thing

*Thread* - the hack is wack

The Master Life 'Hack' to Solve All Problems

What's easier?

Developing psychology & exerting willpower to not eat a pantry full of your favorite snacks

or

Not having those temptations in the house

Many 'solutions' being presented to people don't work

Designed to cope with the problem instead of resolving it

Darkness is the absence of light

You can't resolve or remove the darkness

You can only add more light

Recent viral obsessions with 'healing', 'being stoic', 'mental models & psychology'

They all serve their place AFTER the root has been handled

Before adding things to increase testosterone, remove what inhibits it

Before adding 'hacks', remove things causing conflict

If a person fears confrontation & is not assertive

Techniques & thinking offer some support, but the real question is

Why is this the default behavior?

Without starting with this question

All solutions are merely Band-Aids to mask & cope with the symptoms

In reality the real root of his fear of asserting himself & confrontation may likely be: