THREAD – Mortality 2020

Today we published England & Wales mortality statistics for the w/e 25 Dec

Nearly a full year’s data for 2020

In the last 52 weeks there were:
c.604k deaths registered across E&W

This is:
c.73k deaths (14%) above the 5-yr avg = excess deaths

1/11

Remember the bank holiday effect which affects weekly figs

And the lag between deaths occurring and being registered

We now provide modelled estimates of death occurrences to remove these

The chart below shows both registrations and modelled occurrences across 2020

2/11
Looking at excess deaths, we began the year with death levels below the 5-yr avg

This was followed by a huge peak in the spring, driven by COVID, until lockdown1 took effect

Note the small Aug heatwave peak

And then a gradual pick up through autumn as CV took hold again

3/11
A seasonal effect means more deaths in winter than summer

The pattern of excess deaths as a % of normal weekly deaths is similar

There is a noticeable jump in the latest w/e 25 Dec

Given the recent alarming rise in CV infections this will increase further in Jan

4/11
For longer term context we can compare annual deaths back to 1900

Deaths have been rising recently as life expectancy improvements have stalled, but the jump this year to over 600k is clear

Only one previous year has topped 600k – 1918, the year of the “Spanish” flu

5/11
Numbers of deaths are affected by population size

We can also consider death rates – as a proportion of the population

“Crude” death rates are shown below

All improvements in the first decade of this century will be reversed this year

“Spanish” flu did the same in 1918

6/11
Numbers of deaths are also affected by population structure, such as age. We will produce age standardised rates soon

Whilst the UK-born population is ageing, with post-war baby boomers now in their 50’s to 70’s, recent immigration will have predominantly been younger

7/11
Our world changes too

Medical advances, the NHS, welfare state, better living conditions, all mean that 14% of babies do not die before their 1st birthday. They did in 1900

Excess deaths vs the last 5 years gives current context

This year will see the most since 1940

8/11
We can adjust by population to get crude excess death rates

2020 will also be the highest since 1940

Even with measures taken to limit COVID spread, 2020 will still top 1951, the year of a major flu epidemic

Without all our efforts, 2020 could have been much worse

9/11
A week is a long time in a pandemic

But the basic COVID logic remains the same 👇

Thank you to everyone caring for the sick in such difficult circumstances, you are heroes

My deepest condolences to all who have lost loved ones this year

10/11

https://t.co/ZOWHlIZ3FJ
Thread on today’s figures from the main ONS account below 👇

Best wishes to all suffering with COVID today

And best wishes for an eventual recovery to all of you with Long COVID – I know how you feel

Stay safe and keep others safe

11/11 - ENDS

https://t.co/6MobNvPY0B

More from Economy

EVs DO NOT EMIT MORE PM

Recently @OECD published a report about particulate matter (PM) from road transport. Newspaper headlines blared that electric vehicles where worse than combustion vehicles. That conclusion was wrong according to the report itself.

Let me show you.


The report (published december 7) can be found here:
https://t.co/1HpicKexOt


It's main point is well taken: as cars get cleaner, fine particles emitted by brakes, tires and road surfaces will become more important.
The table comparing electric and combustion engines is on page 92. I took averages of low and high values to get the graph in the first tweet.


I merely took the averages. To get this.


I think it is a terrific report that pulls together a LOT of literature on fine particles that cars spew into the air and that make us sick.

We have ignored this problem for too long, and there's more here than simply exhaust!
The argument for deficits & debt raising interest rates in the US is not increased credit risk, it is that interest rates are a function of economic fundamentals, flows & policy. Deficits/debt change those.

I can't tell if I'm agreeing or disagreeing with @jc_econ.


Increasing government spending or reducing taxes increases demand (or reduces saving). This raises the price of loanable funds or the interest rate.

In a dynamic context, more demand means a stronger economy, the central bank raises interest rates sooner, and long rates rise.

(As an aside, we are not close to the United States needing to worry about credit risk and the risks are more overstated than understated in most other advanced economies too. But credit risk is not always & everywhere irrelevant, just look at the UK in 1976 or Canada in 1994.)

Interest rates have fallen over the last 20 yrs while debt has risen. This does not necessarily mean that debt rising causes interest rates to fall. It could also mean that other things have happened at he same time that pushed down interest rates more than debt pushed them up.

The suspects for these "other things" include slower productivity growth, slower popln growth, higher inequality, less investment, etc. All of which either increase the supply of saving or reduce the demand for investment, reducing the equilibrium interest rate.

You May Also Like

This is NONSENSE. The people who take photos with their books on instagram are known to be voracious readers who graciously take time to review books and recommend them to their followers. Part of their medium is to take elaborate, beautiful photos of books. Die mad, Guardian.


THEY DO READ THEM, YOU JUDGY, RACOON-PICKED TRASH BIN


If you come for Bookstagram, i will fight you.

In appreciation, here are some of my favourite bookstagrams of my books: (photos by lit_nerd37, mybookacademy, bookswrotemystory, and scorpio_books)
Great article from @AsheSchow. I lived thru the 'Satanic Panic' of the 1980's/early 1990's asking myself "Has eveyrbody lost their GODDAMN MINDS?!"


The 3 big things that made the 1980's/early 1990's surreal for me.

1) Satanic Panic - satanism in the day cares ahhhh!

2) "Repressed memory" syndrome

3) Facilitated Communication [FC]

All 3 led to massive abuse.

"Therapists" -and I use the term to describe these quacks loosely - would hypnotize people & convince they they were 'reliving' past memories of Mom & Dad killing babies in Satanic rituals in the basement while they were growing up.

Other 'therapists' would badger kids until they invented stories about watching alligators eat babies dropped into a lake from a hot air balloon. Kids would deny anything happened for hours until the therapist 'broke through' and 'found' the 'truth'.

FC was a movement that started with the claim severely handicapped individuals were able to 'type' legible sentences & communicate if a 'helper' guided their hands over a keyboard.