BC CRYPTO
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

1. You also have to give them a landing. It's tempting, I know, to take the pent up rage out on the only ones who respond to you (like @ProjectLincoln!) or Never Trumpers like @RadioFreeTom or @BillKristol bc they were "guilty" in the past or "waited too long" like @WalshFreedom

 2. but at each of the big inflection moments where Trump lost support I've begged non-Rs to consider the fact that if Trump supporters see that they have nowhere to go, they will stay w the only people that DO accept them, & the price might actually be the collapse of democracy
3. which, until Weds, some people thought I was being hyperbolic about. I WASN'T! When the MAINSTREAM of a major political party divorces themselves from democratic norms & values & its supporters turn to a fictionalized world to justify their political party's actions, your
4. country's stability is at risk & one by-product of poor messaging on the Dem side is that extremism on the Right was able to not only take root in the Rep Party, it was able to take OVER the R party & become the party's mainstream- pinnacled w the presidential win via the EC
5. of Donald Trump, w/o the GOP paying any electoral price for their extremism. A healthy Rep Party might have found the courage to reject Trump's nomination & accept the short term costs that would have come w refusing to endorse his 2016 candidacy. But the Rep Party of 2016
6. was already quite "ill" w polarization & hyperpartisanship & was winning elections despite their extremism, which was never highlighted as a campaign issue even while the still-mod Ds were being erroneously classified as a party of socialists & communists in an increasingly
7. strident & intense right-wing media environment that was also being echoed in GOP campaign materials. Together, this environment was radicalizing the GOP electorate- dehumanizing Democrats & artificially inflating the stakes of campaigns to the point that GOP voters began to
8. become increasingly radical. The chickens came home to roost in the 2016 Rep primary when Donald Trump decided to run. His candidacy tapped into all of the dark undercurrents GOP politicians, media figures, and campaign strategists had been playing w- a fire that burned out of
9. control bc party primaries attract very small electorates and thus can advantage more ideological candidates although traditionally- the best known, best financed candidates win. Trump was a celebrity, that was very imp to his success.
10. Ironically, it was a commitment to pluralism & democracy by party leaders in that cycle who felt that since the voters chose Trump, their choice had to be honored w the party's nomination even though our poll of VA Reps in April of 2016 found shockingly high receptivity
11. to a brokered convention- w somewhere near 50% of surveyed Rs supportive of it, & maybe even higher though I can't recall what the exact % was except that I was floored by it- it played a big role in my falling into the trap in '16 that Trump was such a threat to democracy
12. there might really be more than 10pts of crossover Rep voter support for the Dem ticket in VA (there wasn't though- in the end HRC received almost exactly the modal 10pts of R crossover vote here & it was the LAST time I ever believed in crossover voting >10pts in prez
13. elections aside potentially the weirdo states (WVA, MD, MA) & ever so slightly AZ, where we HAVE seen some >10pts crossover I suspect is due to McCain Rs but which has really only emerged post Trump's actual win. Having been studying polarization as a grad student & doing
14. my dissertation on polarization, along w other scholars I was watching polarization & hyperpartisanship tear through the GOP like a wildfire- seeing its moderate wing get completely wiped out in just a couple of election cycles via ideological primaries till the people being
15. called its moderates were the people that 2 cycles ago had wiped out the moderates! And political scientists, empowered w a amazing quant tool called NOMINATE were showing the world the asymmetry between Rs & Ds- the ideological purge was only happening on the Right
& now anyone can use the NOMINATE tool bc its been put into an easy app on a site called Vote View (I used to have to make little gifs w the raw data to show Congress moving apart which did make me look cool on the job market!). Voteview is an amazing tool- very user friendly
16. which I've posted often on here & am putting here again so you can check it out. I'm also showing you the distribution of members in the 103rd and 116th Congresses. Each dot represents a member of the House or Senate(red Rs, blue Ds) & you https://t.co/0FGUaFjhKe
17. can see how the members are distributed relative to each other very differently over the two+ decades (earlier decade on the right) You'll note the space in the middle where there are no dots have grown and that in the images on the left, the most current session of Congress,
18. there are red dots that touch the cap of the "egg" when there weren't ANY that did so (or even any in that area of the graph!) in the Congress from the 1990s. Generally, after the end of segregation in the South, we only interpret the left/right part of these graphs but you
19. might notice, there is variation of the members on a Y axis too and NOMINATE produces 2 measures of ideology for each member with the one running on the X axis understood to be the liberal/conservative dimension and the only one used. BUT bc the data includes all members
20. of Congress & all non-unanimous votes from the 1st Congress till the current day a 2nd dimension (Y axis) exists for everyone although the belief is that the Y axis is non-interpretable beyond 1960s when segregation ended & race stopped being an explicit issue coming before
21. Congress. Don't forget, until recently, the GOP was at least pretending to be racially liberal by voting en masse to renew the Voting Rights Act every time it came up & only when Trump came along did it move from dog whistle politics to full bullhorns on race & ethnicity
22.(though the dog whistles were PLENTY obvious to anyone that chose to see them). So, the Y axis placements are generally not interpreted but is included so it can be plotted. These 2 congresses are separated by about 25yrs but are WORLD's apart in terms of the
23. voting behavior of men & women serving in the House & Senate- which serves as a proxy for ideology here. NOMINATE is nice bc it doesn't do what the websites that attempt to classify members ideologically does which is to make subjective determinations regarding various votes,
24. often choosing particular bills to include. NOMINATE is not subjective- it includes ALL votes & the program doesn't even know its coding votes or legislators- all it sees is a series of 0s & 1s and is concerned w how those 0s & 1s interact w each other, spatially. Its really
25. smart! Whether its capturing member's sincere ideological preferences or not, one thing is clear, it documents significant behavior changes in our Congress over what we argue is the polarized era AND verifies that the change is primarily isolated in the GOP. I threaded on
26. today bc the super pac launches Monday and is focused on drawing attention to the radicalization of the Republican Party- from the top (electeds/leaders) the bottom (average Rep voters) & how that has destabilized democracy in the US- placing continued stability of democracy
27. at threat. BC Trump was assisted so widely with his effort to steal the 2020 election by his Rep Party peers- including congressional party leaders who went so far as to hold that charade of the certification of the EC vote under the false premise of potential election fraud
28. the threats we are facing will extend beyond Trump's tenure in office & will require Americans to be diligent and aggressive in fighting the GOP, trying to force the party back to the mainstream. Along w the pac, I'll be releasing an analysis of polarization via my @substack
29. @The__Cycle expands on the topic of this thread, shows that the Rep Party has polarized significantly over the past couple decades and is significantly more radical than the Dem Party. It is very important that the American public be brought up to speed as to what is at stake
30. in the 2022 midterms- winning 2020 will not be enough and people who wish to see America navigate this dreadful period need to buckle in- the work is just beginning. Happily, what we've seen from GA is the deep well of possibility!

More from Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🍌

Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. When I hear @clairecmc talk about Dems learning to talk to the Piggly Wiggly crowd, I hope she'll want to join/help w my moderate messaging electioneering overall for Ds effort. BC its CRUCIAL to understand- Ds & outside groups tried already to cater to these voters on the

2. persuasion. That in fact, this cycle was the product of a very concerted effort of that strategy driven by high profile data firms on the D side (many of which who've been critical of my work) & it was a complete and total failure for 2 reasons. The main 1 is that it wants

3. to ignore the effect that polarization is having on voter behavior & the limitations that is placing on certain electioneering techniques that USED TO BE EFFECTIVE and are now not. I want to make something really clear- it is only in places where at least 1 element of the D's

4. operation "went rogue" that Biden pulled out wins: GA, where Abrams made electioneering about turning out the new coalition, AZ, where the AZ state party did the same, but with Latino voters, MI & WI where the state parties put into effect base-centric voter turnout strategies

5. at odds w the party's conventional playbook to focus on turnout, and/or places where concentrations of the D's new coalition: college-educated whites + minority voters (and young voters) are so high (like NE 2) that sub-par strategy doesn't matter, turnout surges are naturally
POLITICS
Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
Yes, actually that's kind of the problem these days.

All the 🔥takes will be shown to be wrong once the voter file data & analysis like this one w the FULL RESULTS get done, which is why I'VE NOT PUBLISHED MY 🔥TAKE IN NYT yet

We'll have to decide if we want it fast, or right


There is ONE STORY in elections right now and its education. Its not rural vs urban, or Black and White, Latino and White

Its educated versus non-educated

And its global

1. I'll add that it's very imp that Ds understand, crystal clear, this fact (that edu is the divide that rules all other divides). After Parscale's success in 2020 the GOP will now double down on their efforts to come after non-college educated, non-white voters bc now they KNOW

2. they're gettable. The 2018 and 2020 cycle were "feelers." No doubt donors and strategists were skeptical. Now they have the analytic proof and the $ will be flowing. This is one reason that I decided that I had to get into electioneering myself. Someone is going to need to be

3. there talking to these voters from the Left (and talking to them with effective messaging- for ex they don't give two shits about insider trading corruption) or you'll see even more erosion in the D's vote share among non-college educated non-white voters, I'm sure of it. Its
POLITICS
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. Friends, yesterday we released a sample ad of what how @StrikePac will message against the GOP. Frustratingly, voters were never approached which the frame of the Rep Party's collapse into extremism in the 2020 cycle aside from work from outside groups like @ProjectLincoln,


2. @MeidasTouch, @votevets & other "super pacs" which are essentially grassroots funded organizations that are making use of the "super pac" designation to electioneer. Organizing as a super pac actually affords groups a great deal of flexibility to perform pro-democracy work

3. so despite the "ewww, yuck!" factor of that designation, not all SP's are, in fact, evil entities (other than the fact that so many of you I wholly support a fully publicly funded system w very strict limits & honestly, a 30 day electioneering window per cycle which would

4. decimate a multi-billion $ industry BUT do a great deal of work to save our democracy & that type of system, by the way, is BY FAR, the norm among western democracies. Ours is literally the Wild West of electioneering systems and if there is 1 "fix all" reform that would have

5. the greatest & most immediate impact on pulling our democracy back from the precipice of our democracy it would be a fully publicly funded, tightly regulated election/campaigning system. We don't have one of those right now & if we ever want to reach the majorities that could
POLITICS
Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. In some respects @IgnatiusPost is right- @JoeBiden's cabinet IS built for comfort- BUT its imp to rem the context.

That comfort is a function of the extensive exp this cabinet has- the antithesis of Trump's appointments.

This country NEEDS the antithesis of Trump's cabinet


2. But its also built for another purpose. Its built to be an olive branch to one man- @senatemajldr who is expected to yield either total control over confirmation, or at the least, great influence. Its meant to signal to him that Biden is serious



2. about his "governing for all" campaign pledge & asking for a reset moment in American politics post-Trump. Something he continues to hope for even as more than 1/2 of the House GOP Caucus signs onto an amicus brief to the Supreme Court of the United States that argues to end

3. democracy itself, as @SteveSchmidtSES articulates so clearly in this video that every American should see. Biden could not have presented to the GOP Senate, to McConnell, a more serious peace offering than this cabinet and its a good move that if it

4. works would pull America back from the brink of a civic collapse. So it MUST be tried even if people like myself think the odds of success are depressingly low. It simply MUST BE TRIED. BC if we are to plummet off the cliff, it needs to McConnell & the GOP who on their own are
POLITICS
Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. SO MUCH more than that. What Barr & the GOP pulled off w the release of the Mueller Report was demonstrated mastery of the American media & the news cycle.

They manipulated both brilliantly.

The reason reporters are conditioned to report a stalled bill as "Congress failing


2. to pass a covid relief bill"- the norm of objectivity- has allowed the RNC/GOP/Trump to develop a system to manipulate the media into doing their dirty work. But never have we seen it orchestrated so deliberately & cleanly as it was to neutralize the Mueller Report. By his

3. "Letter to Congress" where he intentional mispresented the findings of the report on 2 crucial areas- the investigation's conclusions regarding the activities of the Trump campaign and Russia and whether or not the President's actions to damage/disrupt the investigation

4. constitutes obstruction of justice, Barr & the GOP team understood that if the report was released, the media would likely get out on its own this meaning: Trump campaign's contacts with Russia did not rise to criminal charges and that Trump can not be charges w obstruction

5. while being president. BUT, by sending out this letter that interprets the report for the media in advance (well in advance!) of the actual report- Barr can instead tell the media a different narrative, far more favorable to Trump. These, of course, go on to become the
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More from Crypto

The TIE
The TIE
@TheTIEIO
1/

So what actually moves the prices of cryptocurrencies? We spent over a month parsing through data to answer that question for you 👀👀

Special thanks to @eToroUS for partnering with us on this research

A thread:

2/

Leveraging The TIE’s Crypto SigDev™ feed we set out to identify whether news moved the crypto market and what, if any, impact sentiment had following key announcements.

SigDevs are news on token updates or major events (like M&A and Listings).

3/

Looking at ​maximum price increases within 24 hours after different SigDev announcements, we see that certain announcements tend to procure more responses than others. These are ordered from left to right in order of increasing average positive effect on price.


4/

These initial results are intuitive: one would expect 51% attacks — a negative assault on a blockchain — to not typically have a positive effect on price, while getting listed on a new exchange (“L​isting​”) increases demand for a cryptocurrency and thus should increase value

5/

Although Listings and Partnerships have an immediate large influence on price, it does not mean the increase is sustained.

We looked at how sustainable each SigDev was. Specifically, the max price 24 hours after each SigDev compared to the following week's average price
CRYPTO
Hamza
Hamza
@hamzanitoo
1. Last week, @robbietilton sold this art piece for about 17305$ on @withFND.
I saw a lot of people asking questions on CryptoArt and NFTs (Non-fungible token) to understand how it works. I'll try to explain the basic concepts on this thread ↓


2. First, you don't directly buy the art piece, you buy a token. This token is what holds the asset that you're buying, it is a unique id that is used to represent what you bought. It can hold information like the name of the asset, an URL, a description, and so on.


3. On most marketplaces, you won't have a classic signup or login form when you'll want to create an NFT or buy one. Instead, it will be asked to connect your crypto wallet.

4. Now, why bother with a crypto wallet? Couldn't we just do an app that works with dollars? This is where things get interesting: when you buy an NFT, the data is not stored on the marketplace servers.

5. When you post a picture on Instagram, it is stored on their servers. If the app is shut down, your data might be deleted. But also, Instagram could delete your content if they want to, NFTs works differently.
CRYPTO
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Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
Bitfinex files discovery in "Yo bro, where did our $800 million go?" action and it is every bit as interesting as you'd expect it to

Here's their CFO describing their agreement (which we know from other litigation was never contractualized because, presumably because money launderers hate paper trails):


Bitfinex's CFO was shocked, shocked to learn that the money launderer they engaged to provide money laundering services while I-swear-to-God-this-is-an-actual-quote "we learned to bank like criminals" may have from time to time lied to banks.


"Institutional constraints" means, here, "We were attempting to avoid velocity checks placed by our banking partners to detect fraud and money laundering, which would have detected our fraud and money laundering."


Money at the speed of code, yadda yadda yadda, the Bitcoin economy is surprisingly blasé when several hundred million dollars is in an interstitial state for months.

In a situation never before encountered by a financial institution: the check was not, in fact, in the mail.
CRYPTO
anshul gupta
anshul gupta
@anshgupta64
Scathing comments on Crypto from Mr Rabi Shankar - Deputy Governor, RBI.

1) On crypto being treated as a currency:
"Currency always has an issuer, usually a trusted entity like the sovereign. Even when gold is used as a currency, the gold coins had to be issued by a sovereign.

Secondly, historically, a currency has always been either a commodity with intrinsic value or a debt instrument. Cryptocurrencies do not conform
to this understanding as they do not have an issuer, they are not an instrument of debt/commodities nor do have any intrinsic value.

Currency needs trust, not everything that can be trusted is a currency. So even if technology (as
in a blockchain) provides the trust for cryptocurrencies, they can at best perform the role of a currency within the private and closed environment of that cryptocurrency.

They do not, and should not, automatically become a currency for the larger society "

2) On crypto being treated as a financial asset : "This is also problematic because all financial assets have underlying cash flows and need to be some person’s liability.
CRYPTO
Emperor\U0001f451
Emperor👑
@EmperorBTC
Go to 1-4 hour chart.

Use the following EMAs.
13,21,50,180.

Look for a period of consolidation and
13>21>50>180.

Wait for a pull back to 13EMA.
If bounce occurs with volume, Enter.

Exit on bearish cross with 21>13.
CRYPTO

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"The MAD Primer of Bigots, Extremists and Other Loose Ends," from September 1969.

Seen a couple of these panels make the rounds from time to time, so here's the complete set of 10 (something to amuse and/or offend almost everyone).


Chapter 1: The Super Patriot


Chapter 2: The Ku Klux Klansman


Chapter 3: The American Student


Chapter 4: The Right-Wing Extremist
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Cookie Cyboid
Cookie Cyboid
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“Why are Tumblr and Facebook cracking down on sex so much? And why is Facebook in so over zealous about it? It’s all Apples fault!” Etc etc

I can explain all. It is largely the fault of a set of US laws called SESTA and FOSTA.
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The Chartians
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Took me 5 years to get the best Chartink scanners for Stock Market, but you’ll get it in 5 mminutes here ⏰

Do Share the above tweet 👆

These are going to be very simple yet effective pure price action based scanners, no fancy indicators nothing - hope you liked it.

https://t.co/JU0MJIbpRV

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One of the classic scanners very you will get strong stocks to Bet on.

https://t.co/V69th0jwBr

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Dr. Jane Clare Jones
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@janeclarejones
So, on the subject of bonkers hyperbolic pretzeling over the Bell judgement, Grace 'destroy books I don't like & make inappropriate jokes about sterilising teenage girls' Lavery has some thoughts.

Tell me why my feminism is wrong Grace.

Oh

Well, if anyone thought the Bell judgment was going to make TRAs reconsider making massively overblown claims with no evidence backed up with nothing but a thick wadge of emotional blackmail.... HAHAHA, no one thought that.


A high court in the UK made a delimited judgment about teenager's ability to consent to puberty blockers. This puts all trans people everywhere in the world at risk.

Because if any human anywhere has any thoughts that deviate in any way from the rote line dictated by

the trans rights movement, this puts all trans people everywhere in mortal danger.

Let's be honest Grace. It doesn't put trans people at risk. It puts trans ideology at risk. Because trans ideology depends on the idea of innate gender identity, and the trans child is the

necessary material evidence of the ontology of gender identity.

That is, children are being medicalised to provide evidence to underwrite adults identities.

Nothing to see here.
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Mike DiCenzo
Mike DiCenzo
@mikedicenzo
"How the Avengers would respond to the Capitol riot" (a thread)

CAPTAIN AMERICA - tells Falcon, "I fought Nazis once before. They're extremely dangerous." They then see the guy scaling the Capitol wall fall into the shrubs. Falcon: "You sure these are the same Nazis?"

IRON MAN - lands by the guy carrying the podium. Says, "Mind if I borrow this?" then tosses it to Hulk, who swings it like a bat at the mob. Guy: "Hey, that's MY podium!" Iron Man: "Actually it's the Speaker's. And technically, it's a lectern." Then punches him through a wall.

BLACK WIDOW - enters hotel room where Jack Dorsey is tied up. Rips duct tape off his mouth. Jack: "I'll do anything you want!" BW: "Disable POTUS's Twitter. NOW!" Jack fumbles with his phone. "Done. Anything else?" BW: "Yeah. Trim your beard for God's sake." *tosses him clippers*

HULK - grabs a selfie stick from one of the guys and beats him over the head with it. Deeming it too small, he grabs another guy's Confederate flag and takes out a whole swath of rioters. He then tosses the flag to Cap, who uses it as a javelin to impale a fleeing Ted Cruz.

HAWKEYE - hears Iron Man in his earpiece say, "Looks like Orange Julius is tweeting from another account." Hawkeye: "On it." He locks in on Trump through the White House window and fires an arrow, knocking the phone out of Trump's hands. Hawkeye: "Damn that felt good."
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