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The real danger for the country isn’t the election results, it’s the reaction to, and the refusal to accept the results. For more than four years, Trump and the Right Wing Media Echo Chamber have conditioned his supporters to believe the election is “rigged”. They believe it….1/
In a recent thread about collective election anxiety/PTSD, I wrote that “one half the country doesn’t believe in evidence, the other half can’t trust it.” 2/
This couldn’t more evident than by the fact that 87 percent of Trump supporters believe he will win re-election, despite the fact that… 3/
…the empirical data that shows Biden *should* win easily. This has resulted in https://t.co/e8JNg5tYmK calculating that Trump has only a 10% chance of winning. To be clear, 10% is a non-zero number, much like the 30% chance that Trump had in 2016. 4/
But the real problem isn’t necessarily about low probabilities, the real problem…..or more accurately, the danger…..lies in the pathologically unrealistic expectations of the cult of Trump: 90% of them have been conned into thinking that a 10% probability is a “sure thing”. 5/
In a recent thread about collective election anxiety/PTSD, I wrote that “one half the country doesn’t believe in evidence, the other half can’t trust it.” 2/
The collective anxiety is the by-product of two unfortunate realities of the Trump era:
— Nick Carmody JD, MS Psych (@Nick_Carmody) October 20, 2020
1)You\u2019ll never go broke if you consistently bet on the ignorance/depravity of 1/3 of this country.
2)One-half of the country doesn\u2019t believe in evidence. The other half can\u2019t trust it.
1/ https://t.co/gY5lzJxNxq
This couldn’t more evident than by the fact that 87 percent of Trump supporters believe he will win re-election, despite the fact that… 3/
…the empirical data that shows Biden *should* win easily. This has resulted in https://t.co/e8JNg5tYmK calculating that Trump has only a 10% chance of winning. To be clear, 10% is a non-zero number, much like the 30% chance that Trump had in 2016. 4/
But the real problem isn’t necessarily about low probabilities, the real problem…..or more accurately, the danger…..lies in the pathologically unrealistic expectations of the cult of Trump: 90% of them have been conned into thinking that a 10% probability is a “sure thing”. 5/