Shopify is a $1T (5.5x) company in the next 10 yrs if any combo of the below work in its favor:

1/ Ecomm penetration continues to grow
2/ Global churn increase/US DTC model becomes viable
3/ Brand discovery (key!)
4/ Larger cut of each transaction

A thread:

1/ Doesn't require much explanation - the more things people buy online, the more $ Shopify makes. 2 things in Shop's favor here:
Can Shopify make ppl buy more things? *Did I really need that 5th pair of Allbirds?*
What other retail categories will move more online?

2/ *Heinz going DTC seems silly and doesnt move the needle for them rn, but why can't every small restaurant order their condiments DTC in the future? *DTC of wholesale makes a ton of sense.*

Ecom goes way beyond DTC (Shopify's current bread & butter)-Shopify can, and should...

3/ start to take on the Squarespaces, Wix, Weebly's of the world. If you monetize online, Shopify should be your first stop.

Not to mention, overtime, Shopify will eat traditional competitors at the top (Oracle/SAP) and similar competitors will die out (Woo, Big, ect ect)

4/ High churn is a good thing for Shopify (ht @benthompson) The more people trying and failing on Shopify, also increase the probability of a major winner. Marginal costs of failures < marginal gains of big winners.

Globally, Shopify needs to reduce the pain of failure.