Mollyycolllinss Authors Timothy Huyer
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This column by @jackmintz raises some concerns as a potential policy response to the expected cancellation of the KXL permit.
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First, Dr Mintz cites numbers for direct and indirect jobs created by KXL for both Canada and USA. It isn’t clear where these numbers came from or if they are permanent jobs. Methods for calculating induced jobs are notorious for their unreliable and non-robust methodology.
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Second, Dr Mintz proposes that Canada retaliate with duties and other trade restrictions, as what happened with aluminum. However, KXL is very different, and this changes the scope of available responses, especially under our trade agreements.
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Canada viewed the US duties on aluminum and steel as violating trade agreements. The retaliatory duties were permitted under those agreements as a response to those violations. They are not permitted in response to cancelling KXL.
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It is also somewhat odd to see an economist arguing for a trade war in any event, especially one tat would be initiated by a small, trade-exposed economy against a much larger economy. No one wins in a trade war.
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"Given the even greater importance of energy exports, Canada should not stand idly by now." - @jackmintz discusses Canada's reaction to Biden's potential decision to cancel Keystone with @financialpost -https://t.co/9Mr68imG3P
— Policy School (@policy_school) January 20, 2021
First, Dr Mintz cites numbers for direct and indirect jobs created by KXL for both Canada and USA. It isn’t clear where these numbers came from or if they are permanent jobs. Methods for calculating induced jobs are notorious for their unreliable and non-robust methodology.
2/
Second, Dr Mintz proposes that Canada retaliate with duties and other trade restrictions, as what happened with aluminum. However, KXL is very different, and this changes the scope of available responses, especially under our trade agreements.
3/
Canada viewed the US duties on aluminum and steel as violating trade agreements. The retaliatory duties were permitted under those agreements as a response to those violations. They are not permitted in response to cancelling KXL.
4/
It is also somewhat odd to see an economist arguing for a trade war in any event, especially one tat would be initiated by a small, trade-exposed economy against a much larger economy. No one wins in a trade war.
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