Jacobtldr Authors POLITICO

7 days 30 days All time Recent Popular
Here’s a look at how we think the open House races this November will go (1/5)

In the 62 House races with no incumbent running, 29 races are leaning toward, likely or solidly under GOP control, according to our race ratings (2/5)
https://t.co/6TGYPRvTIk

That’s compared to 26 open races that we’re predicting are leaning toward, likely or solidly going to Democrats (3/5) https://t.co/6TGYPRvTIk

There’s 7 open House races that we think are toss-ups. These races could help push one party over the finish line for control of the House. (4/5) https://t.co/6TGYPRvTIk

Use our DIY Congress tool to make your own predictions about the midterm elections (5/5)
1/5 We’re 14 days away from Election Day, and history tells us Republicans are going to lose the House. (But history also told us that Donald Trump wouldn’t win the presidency.)

2/5 Most Republicans would tell you today they think Democrats will end up with a narrow majority, which would create an ugly couple of years of governing
https://t.co/fPTdEsyTvC


3/5 If Republicans do keep the House, we don’t really know what their agenda would be. But it seems likely they’ll try to pass a health care bill again, and make some of their tax cuts permanent https://t.co/fPTdEsyTvC


4/5 If Democrats take the House, expect the chamber to pass a lot of legislation that will get stopped dead in its tracks in the Senate. And expect lots of oversight. https://t.co/fPTdEsyTvC


5/5 You can also expect Nancy Pelosi to be the speaker if Dems win the House. She’s preparing to lead a big freshman class, and she also says she’s ready to foster generational change.

More in today’s @playbookplus newsletter: https://t.co/xwPBQg9oKG
The White House will be won or lost in these eight battleground states – and Biden is leading in all but one https://t.co/rtXPTpdbnr


In Arizona, Trump’s handling of the pandemic is proving costly, leaving him struggling to match his 2016 performance among those over the age of 65
https://t.co/TTHvr8Sclg


Republicans typically hold a slight edge in absentee ballot returns in Florida elections. But this year, for the first time ever at this stage of a general election, Democrats here are outvoting Republicans — and by a huge margin https://t.co/BCsVccVn1Y


Most of the attention in Georgia this year is directed toward Atlanta’s populous suburbs, which have turned hard against Republicans in the Trump era, But the outcome might come down to a less scrutinized force in this state: white rural voters https://t.co/2W17tsDVyf


All three Rust Belt states that Trump improbably won in 2016 — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are problematic for the president this year. But Michigan is where things look bleakest. https://t.co/aQo6KIQZVH