CodyyyGardner Authors Cem Karsan đ„
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1/x As weâve been calling for since Nov, today we finally got our 2 âGeorgia Peachesâđ precisely on schedule, as weâve called for since Aug, & the underlying rotation has confirmed now for months, this matters. This is a historic turning point. It matters not only https://t.co/BFxKGrI1Oo
2/x for this year, but for the economic trajectory of America & likely the macroeconomic regime of the developed world for the coming decade. That said, contrary to popular belief, the market does not move based on news in the short term if the positioning doesnât allow it to.
3/x & our old friend Gary the đŠ & his sidekick Vanna are positioned to have this market pinned through 1/11. So, as explained ad nauseam, the election news, though fundamentally important, wonât matter to the index itself in the ST. As predicted, the largest moves from the GA
4/x runoff INITIALLY have come from factor rotation. This should continue to be the case, as the street is oversupplied IVol & the index is pinned. This not only allows for idiosyncratic risk moves in constituents, but it actually FORCES extreme noncorrelation & rotation, as we
5/x have witnessed now for the past 2 days. This Vol compression will be increasingly difficult to break free from until 1/11-1/15, but the window of weakness is coming...soon the final hedges from the âelection humpâ in Nov will expire with the Jan monthly options. Once the
1/x Well you can\u2019t say I didn\u2019t warn you... We\u2019ve been eying that 3770.5 level and the 1/5-1/13 window for many weeks. To get it a day early, @ the lowest edge of the upper range, tells me that there\u2019s understandable concern over the impending outcome of the runoff. As I\u2019ve said https://t.co/BxG2DzdXqt pic.twitter.com/ki4sYprwIH
— Cem Karsan \U0001f950 (@jam_croissant) January 5, 2021
2/x for this year, but for the economic trajectory of America & likely the macroeconomic regime of the developed world for the coming decade. That said, contrary to popular belief, the market does not move based on news in the short term if the positioning doesnât allow it to.
3/x & our old friend Gary the đŠ & his sidekick Vanna are positioned to have this market pinned through 1/11. So, as explained ad nauseam, the election news, though fundamentally important, wonât matter to the index itself in the ST. As predicted, the largest moves from the GA
4/x runoff INITIALLY have come from factor rotation. This should continue to be the case, as the street is oversupplied IVol & the index is pinned. This not only allows for idiosyncratic risk moves in constituents, but it actually FORCES extreme noncorrelation & rotation, as we
5/x have witnessed now for the past 2 days. This Vol compression will be increasingly difficult to break free from until 1/11-1/15, but the window of weakness is coming...soon the final hedges from the âelection humpâ in Nov will expire with the Jan monthly options. Once the