1/ Lockdowns are painful. Even Ontario's version will cause suffering for a lot of people. Compliance is high when people see results that are working and can see tangible proof that the tumult in their lives is contributing to the greater good.

2/ Most people's measure will be daily case counts. By delaying our mockdown 5 days Ford has basically endorsed family gatherings for Christmas day.
So that leaves us with our already record case counts about to be added to from a Christmas surge.

3/ People, who are already sacrificing so much, will see an increase of cases by the middle of January rather than a drop. At that point, they will have been "hunkered" down for 3 weeks and instead of a decrease, they'll be seeing similar or higher numbers.

4/ This is why these 5 days, at this time of year are so important. Modelling from yesterday showed a SIX-week lockdown started *immediately* would take current case counts down from 2300ish to around 500.

5/ The current mockdown is 28 days which even without the Christmas surge would not be enough to have a meaningful impact. Here's the issue, by delaying 5 days, even after all the sacrifices people have made, the numbers will still be high when we add the Xmas surge.