They benefit from strong unit economics and a trusted brand
We'll discuss consensus estimates, competitive landscape, and expected value
https://t.co/iVFnS9dyRg
1/ @mjmauboussin's book Expectations Investing is a masterclass in valuation & strategy
His framework uses price-implied expectations to assess companies, an elegant way to invert valuation
https://t.co/kESplMN3nW
To practice these concepts, I wrote a case study on Chipotle⤵️
They benefit from strong unit economics and a trusted brand
We'll discuss consensus estimates, competitive landscape, and expected value
https://t.co/iVFnS9dyRg
After finding the consensus estimates, investors can seek opportunities in the expectations - looking for a divergence from the market's assumptions
Let's start with Chipotle's sales growth
Analysts estimate a 13.7% consensus growth rate based on 5-7% same store sales growth, 8% additional store openings per year, and steady digital sales contribution
Chipotle has slowly been growing its margin, now at 10.67%
Analysts expect high margins of 15.75%, with incremental profits from digital orders and unit-level margin growth contributing
Cash taxes trailed income taxes slightly over the cumulative 5 year period, with small tax benefits
Future cash taxes are estimated at 25% based on historical rates and company guidance
Historical NOPAT has grown meaningfully, almost 4x the 2017 figure
On to investments...
For Chipotle that's store openings, improvements to existing stores, and technology
To earn an extra dollar in sales, Chipotle invested 16 cents (16% rate) in PPE
Chipotle benefits from negative working capital, where suppliers finance their operations at no cost (float)
Gift cards are $130mm of float too
Pretty great getting an interest free loan
Suppliers and customers finance Chipotle's operational growth
This resulted in a negative incremental working capital rate at -5.25%.
I conservatively chose 2% for the future estimate
Chipotle's free cash flow has grown at a 22% CAGR, from $152mm in 2017 to $415mm in 2021
Now we need our cost of capital...
He shared cost of capital's role in discounting, as a company investment hurdle, and how it relates to portfolio risk
A must listen: https://t.co/nyABNKeqa4
He recommends spending more time on value drivers rather than perfecting the WACC
My WACC for Chipotle is 8.59%
Chipotle is expected to reach their $1475 current share price by year 11, with 3-4x in revenues & FCF
An industry map shows the key constituents, such as landlords, staff, ingredient suppliers, tech providers, and competitors
In a market segment growing 12% annually, Chipotle is in a good position to continue their success
Chipotle has dominated the quick service, higher price & quality segment for a decade now
https://t.co/2rC22YwqL6
It costs Chipotle $1mm to build a new location
That store makes $2.6mm in annual revenue, with a 22.5% margin
This results in $585k in annual operating income, which after taxes and CapEx, is closer to $365k in free cash flow per store
Scale drives down costs and means negative cash conversion cycles
Brand lowers CAC
Digital leads to repeat & larger orders
Culture ensures happy employees, happy customers
The turbo trigger is the value driver that has the largest variance in expectations and share prices
For Chipotle, that is the operating profit margin
The low scenario is 10.5%, which is level to today
The high scenario is 17.5%, which factors in better digital margins and incredible unit margins
I selected the consensus estimates with a slight edge towards bearish
The expected value was $1400, below today's share price
Mauboussin covers much more in the book, like competitive strategy, psychological biases, M&A, real options, and buybacks! 🤯
His big ideas -https://t.co/OG1qo84ABo
https://t.co/iVFnS9dyRg
I go into detail on the financial estimates and how competitive powers have differentiated Chipotle
Hope you enjoy it!
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The UN just voted to condemn Israel 9 times, and the rest of the world 0.
View the resolutions and voting results here:
The resolution titled "The occupied Syrian Golan," which condemns Israel for "repressive measures" against Syrian citizens in the Golan Heights, was adopted by a vote of 151 - 2 - 14.
Israel and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/HoO7oz0dwr
The resolution titled "Israeli practices affecting the human rights of the Palestinian people..." was adopted by a vote of 153 - 6 - 9.
Australia, Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/1Ntpi7Vqab
The resolution titled "Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and the occupied Syrian Golan" was adopted by a vote of 153 – 5 – 10.
Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/REumYgyRuF
The resolution titled "Applicability of the Geneva Convention... to the
Occupied Palestinian Territory..." was adopted by a vote of 154 - 5 - 8.
Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/xDAeS9K1kW
View the resolutions and voting results here:
The resolution titled "The occupied Syrian Golan," which condemns Israel for "repressive measures" against Syrian citizens in the Golan Heights, was adopted by a vote of 151 - 2 - 14.
Israel and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/HoO7oz0dwr
The resolution titled "Israeli practices affecting the human rights of the Palestinian people..." was adopted by a vote of 153 - 6 - 9.
Australia, Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/1Ntpi7Vqab
The resolution titled "Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and the occupied Syrian Golan" was adopted by a vote of 153 – 5 – 10.
Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/REumYgyRuF
The resolution titled "Applicability of the Geneva Convention... to the
Occupied Palestinian Territory..." was adopted by a vote of 154 - 5 - 8.
Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/xDAeS9K1kW
https://t.co/6cRR2B3jBE
Viruses and other pathogens are often studied as stand-alone entities, despite that, in nature, they mostly live in multispecies associations called biofilms—both externally and within the host.
https://t.co/FBfXhUrH5d
Microorganisms in biofilms are enclosed by an extracellular matrix that confers protection and improves survival. Previous studies have shown that viruses can secondarily colonize preexisting biofilms, and viral biofilms have also been described.
...we raise the perspective that CoVs can persistently infect bats due to their association with biofilm structures. This phenomenon potentially provides an optimal environment for nonpathogenic & well-adapted viruses to interact with the host, as well as for viral recombination.
Biofilms can also enhance virion viability in extracellular environments, such as on fomites and in aquatic sediments, allowing viral persistence and dissemination.
Viruses and other pathogens are often studied as stand-alone entities, despite that, in nature, they mostly live in multispecies associations called biofilms—both externally and within the host.
https://t.co/FBfXhUrH5d
Microorganisms in biofilms are enclosed by an extracellular matrix that confers protection and improves survival. Previous studies have shown that viruses can secondarily colonize preexisting biofilms, and viral biofilms have also been described.
...we raise the perspective that CoVs can persistently infect bats due to their association with biofilm structures. This phenomenon potentially provides an optimal environment for nonpathogenic & well-adapted viruses to interact with the host, as well as for viral recombination.
Biofilms can also enhance virion viability in extracellular environments, such as on fomites and in aquatic sediments, allowing viral persistence and dissemination.
A THREAD ON @SarangSood
Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
I am quite different from your style. I follow the market's volatility very closely. I have mock positions in 7-8 different strategies which allows me to stay connected. Whichever gives best profit is usually the one i trade in.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) August 13, 2019
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
Anilji most of the time these days Theta only falls when market moves. So the Theta actually falls where market has moved to, not where our position was in the first place. By shifting we can come close to capturing the Theta fall but not always.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) June 24, 2019
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
This week has been great so far. The main aim is to be in the right side of the volatility, rest the market will reward.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) July 3, 2019
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
There is a difference between theta decay & fall in vega. Decay is certain but there is no guaranteed profit as delta moves can increase cost. Fall in vega on the other hand is backed by a powerful force that sells options and gives handsome returns. Our job is to identify them.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) February 12, 2020
TradingView isn't just charts
It's much more powerful than you think
9 things TradingView can do, you'll wish you knew yesterday: 🧵
Collaborated with @niki_poojary
1/ Free Multi Timeframe Analysis
Step 1. Download Vivaldi Browser
Step 2. Login to trading view
Step 3. Open bank nifty chart in 4 separate windows
Step 4. Click on the first tab and shift + click by mouse on the last tab.
Step 5. Select "Tile all 4 tabs"
What happens is you get 4 charts joint on one screen.
Refer to the attached picture.
The best part about this is this is absolutely free to do.
Also, do note:
I do not have the paid version of trading view.
2/ Free Multiple Watchlists
Go through this informative thread where @sarosijghosh teaches you how to create multiple free watchlists in the free
3/ Free Segregation into different headers/sectors
You can create multiple sections sector-wise for free.
1. Long tap on any index/stock and click on "Add section above."
2. Secgregate the stocks/indices based on where they belong.
Kinda like how I did in the picture below.
It's much more powerful than you think
9 things TradingView can do, you'll wish you knew yesterday: 🧵
Collaborated with @niki_poojary
1/ Free Multi Timeframe Analysis
Step 1. Download Vivaldi Browser
Step 2. Login to trading view
Step 3. Open bank nifty chart in 4 separate windows
Step 4. Click on the first tab and shift + click by mouse on the last tab.
Step 5. Select "Tile all 4 tabs"
What happens is you get 4 charts joint on one screen.
Refer to the attached picture.
The best part about this is this is absolutely free to do.
Also, do note:
I do not have the paid version of trading view.
2/ Free Multiple Watchlists
Go through this informative thread where @sarosijghosh teaches you how to create multiple free watchlists in the free
\U0001d5e0\U0001d602\U0001d5f9\U0001d601\U0001d5f6\U0001d5fd\U0001d5f9\U0001d5f2 \U0001d600\U0001d5f2\U0001d5f0\U0001d601\U0001d5fc\U0001d5ff \U0001d604\U0001d5ee\U0001d601\U0001d5f0\U0001d5f5\U0001d5f9\U0001d5f6\U0001d600\U0001d601 \U0001d5fc\U0001d5fb \U0001d5e7\U0001d5ff\U0001d5ee\U0001d5f1\U0001d5f6\U0001d5fb\U0001d5f4\U0001d603\U0001d5f6\U0001d5f2\U0001d604 \U0001d602\U0001d600\U0001d5f6\U0001d5fb\U0001d5f4 \U0001d601\U0001d5f5\U0001d5f2 \U0001d5d9\U0001d5e5\U0001d5d8\U0001d5d8 \U0001d603\U0001d5f2\U0001d5ff\U0001d600\U0001d5f6\U0001d5fc\U0001d5fb!
— Sarosij Ghosh (@sarosijghosh) September 18, 2021
A THREAD \U0001f9f5
Please Like and Re-Tweet. It took a lot of effort to put this together. #StockMarket #TradingView #trading #watchlist #Nifty500 #stockstowatch
3/ Free Segregation into different headers/sectors
You can create multiple sections sector-wise for free.
1. Long tap on any index/stock and click on "Add section above."
2. Secgregate the stocks/indices based on where they belong.
Kinda like how I did in the picture below.