Trumps Amtsenthebung II: Auch dieses Mal wird der abgewählte Präsident nicht seines Amtes enthoben, so wie genau vor einem Jahr. Und zwar schon heute. Aber was ist da heute passiert?
1) Offene Fragen: Immer mehr Details zur Kommunikation zwischen Trump & im Kapitol befindlichen
2) Der Deal: Dann muss es zwischen demokratischer und republikanischer Führung des
3) Das Kalkül: Die RepublikanerInnen dürften damit gedroht haben, den Senat für alle anderen Dinge, die Joe Biden auf der Agenda hat zu blockieren, so lange das Trump-Verfahren nicht abgschlossen ist. Das hieße für die Dems
4) Wie geht's weiter? Trumps Amtsenthebung wird mit nur 53-55 der notwendigen 67 Stimmen nicht beschlossen. Und bei den DemokratInnen startet jetzt eine mit Sicherheit heftige Debatte, ob man Trump zu leicht davon kommen hat
More from Trump
Picking up on @henryfarrell's comments here, one implication of my work on democratic breakdown is that the US should harshly punish GOP leaders who attempted to keep Trump in power despite losing the election and fomented insurrection to advance that effort. 1/n
I wrote a book a decade ago that used game theory to explore the ways democracies die and what that tells us about how and why they sometimes survive. 2/n
One implication of the formal model in that book is that normative commitments to democracy may matter less than expectations about the benefits and costs of trying to subvert democracy. 3/n
It's great when all the major players (ruling party, opposition party, and military) believe democracy is good in itself. If they don't, tho, then what matters most are their beliefs about how easily they can seize power and how costly it would be to try and fail. 4/n
I think it's pretty clear that many key players in the GOP don't see democracy as a good in itself ("we're a republic, not a democracy"). So that shifts their attention to their ability to usurp power and the costs of trying and failing. 5/n
1. Short thread - on the various claims we're seeing from Republican politicians over the last few days that the Democratic push for accountability is "divisive." Damn right it's divisive - that is what it has to be.
— Henry Farrell (@henryfarrell) January 10, 2021
I wrote a book a decade ago that used game theory to explore the ways democracies die and what that tells us about how and why they sometimes survive. 2/n
One implication of the formal model in that book is that normative commitments to democracy may matter less than expectations about the benefits and costs of trying to subvert democracy. 3/n
It's great when all the major players (ruling party, opposition party, and military) believe democracy is good in itself. If they don't, tho, then what matters most are their beliefs about how easily they can seize power and how costly it would be to try and fail. 4/n
I think it's pretty clear that many key players in the GOP don't see democracy as a good in itself ("we're a republic, not a democracy"). So that shifts their attention to their ability to usurp power and the costs of trying and failing. 5/n
It’s not clear how Dr. Sean Conley has determined Trump will no longer need to isolate only 10 days after symptom onset.
Looks like the CDC Guidelines say Trump should be in the category that needs to isolate for 20 days after symptom onset.👇
Plus ...
2. Fauci on Thursday used a (test-based) approach, in which case, per Fauci:
Trump needs to isolate for 10 days after symptoms RESOLVE (not symptoms onset) and then two negative tests.
Note: based on his coughing on Hannity last night, Trump’s symptoms haven’t resolved yet.
3. Here’s a longer quote from Fauci (via @MarionRenault):
https://t.co/oRdrtxQe80
4. Also noteworthy: on Hannity last night, Trump wouldn’t say he’s tested negative.👇
Thus failing one of the conditions required by Fauci for Trump to be considered no longer contagious.
5/5. This resource on coronavirus (UpToDate) has been specially made available to the public. It describes the test-based and non-test-based approaches.
Looks like the CDC Guidelines say Trump should be in the category that needs to isolate for 20 days after symptom onset.👇
Plus ...
Severe COVID Pneumonia defined as low oxygen sats <94 % as confirmed by the President\u2019s chief of staff, in addition to other clinically consistent information: shortness of breath to name one.
— Vin Gupta \u201c\U0001f637!\u201d MD (@VinGuptaMD) October 9, 2020
That buys 20 days of isolation. At 74 with co-morbidities, \u2066@CDCgov\u2069 is right pic.twitter.com/fR3jc9jYQI
2. Fauci on Thursday used a (test-based) approach, in which case, per Fauci:
Trump needs to isolate for 10 days after symptoms RESOLVE (not symptoms onset) and then two negative tests.
Note: based on his coughing on Hannity last night, Trump’s symptoms haven’t resolved yet.
Dr. Fauci: "If the President goes 10 days w/o symptoms & they do the tests-then you could make the assumption, based on good science, that he is not infected. But you have to make sure you go through those particular benchmarks delineated in the CDC guidelines." #AMRstaff
— Andrea Mitchell (@mitchellreports) October 8, 2020
3. Here’s a longer quote from Fauci (via @MarionRenault):
https://t.co/oRdrtxQe80
4. Also noteworthy: on Hannity last night, Trump wouldn’t say he’s tested negative.👇
Thus failing one of the conditions required by Fauci for Trump to be considered no longer contagious.
Mark the date, we have reached the point where even Sean Hannity is asking Trump simple questions that the president can\u2019t or won\u2019t answer https://t.co/HgMpIsOCJn
— Mehdi Hasan (@mehdirhasan) October 9, 2020
5/5. This resource on coronavirus (UpToDate) has been specially made available to the public. It describes the test-based and non-test-based approaches.
