Should you add more in Equity or redeem right now?
A thread 🧵to guide retail on why & what should they do at these historic market highs.
Do ‘re-tweet’ and help us educate more retail investors (1/n)
#investing #StockMarket
If you r new to fundamentals, 👇 can help https://t.co/Um5trNKc13
Market PE at 40 and yet the market is not falling, why? Getting asked this question multiple times. Here's a thread covering \u2018very basic\u2019 premier on valuation for my retail investor friends.
— Kirtan A Shah (@KirtanShahCFP) January 14, 2021
Do hit the \u2018re-tweet\u2019 and help us educate more investors (1/n) pic.twitter.com/8oCkBmmOXY
Over the last many years, markets have corrected 10-15% each calendar year. Can it happen this year as well? Can very much and that can be a great entry point. Why? (4/n)
-Crude going up
-$ index moving up
-Inflation moving up
-COVID uncertainties
All of the above are –ve for markets & liquidity on the other side driving markets up, its impossible to judge the near term movement of the markets (5/n)
-Stick to your asset allocation
-Don’t take large lumpsum bets, spread it over time
-Continue your SIPs
-If you are new to markets, take MF route than direct equity (6/n)
-Don’t expect sizeable returns for the coming 2 years
-Look at this market more from a medium term perspective (7/n)
-Global growth
-Lower interest rates
-CAPEX
-China + 1 (8/n)
(a) Liquidity is infused in the markets by both, central banks & governments
(Understand more about how liquidity drives the markets 👇 https://t.co/CCJIDFgu6I) (9/n)
Liquidity is fueling the stock market rally says everyone. What is this liquidity? How does it get created? How does it fuel stocks, commodities? (Thread)
— Kirtan A Shah (@KirtanShahCFP) December 18, 2020
Hit the \u2018re-tweet\u2019 and help us educate more investors\u2019 (1/n)
(d) We also have Europe committing 750B Euros of infra spend
(e) If global growth even increases by 1%, India will benefit by 0.30 - 0.40% due to exports and capital inflows (11/n)
(a) Vs pre pandemic, G-Sec is down roughly 1.8% & repo is down 2.25%. There is a huge 17-18L cr liquidity in the banking system which can be lent (12/n)
(c) Corporate borrowings have and will continue to hugely benefit with these lower rates (13/n)
(a) There are clear signs of CAPEX returning in Housing, Infra as well as corporates (lower rates helping)
(b) To quote only housing, the house price to income ratio is 4.5 times today across 20 cities, best in the last 20 years. There is demand for housing. (14/n)
(d) Housing revival indirectly connects with 80 odd sub sectors & is a huge employment provider. Construction is the second largest employment generator
(e) We have also seen huge government spending’s after recessions (15/n)
(a) Some part of China’s share of global trade is expected to come to India due to Labour cost going up over the last decade in China, trade issues that China has with many, environmental challenges that china is facing (16/n)
- Today we are roughly at 2.2 – 2.3 times PAT to GDP ratio vs our average of 4.5 times, upside possible.
- From an FY23 perspective, with estimated EPS to be around 874 on nifty, we are trading at 18 times (19/n)
- Its impossible to judge the near term movement, stick to your asset allocation
- This market should be looked at from a medium term perspective and has become very sector/stock specific
- Avoid looking at this market from a near term perspective (21/n)
The thread is purely for education and should not be taken as an investment advice. (22/n)
Have earlier written on,
-Sector Analysis - Banking, Paints, Logistic, REIT, InvIT, Sugar, Steel
- Macro
- Debt Markets
- Equity
- Gold
- Personal Finance etc.
You can find them all in the link below 👇https://t.co/UrRt87OLLF (END)
Here\u2019s a compilation of Personal Finance threads I have written so far. Thank you for motivating me to do it.
— Kirtan A Shah (@KirtanShahCFP) December 13, 2020
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More from Kirtan A Shah
Do re-tweet and help us educate more retail investors
#investing
What better day to discuss Gold, isn\u2019t it?
— Kirtan A Shah (@KirtanShahCFP) November 13, 2020
Topic - Physical Gold v/s Digital Gold v/s Gold ETF v/s Sovereign Gold Bond (SGB)
(Thread) \u2013 DO RE-TWEET FOR A LARGER REACH :)
(1/n)
More from Stockslearnings
This is how to differentiate:
• if right shoulder is smaller than left, most likely a continuation H&S
• if right is same or higher than left, and the price is not coming to neckline, most likely CF
sir a doubt does head & shoulders work in down trend ? pic.twitter.com/dytYmbzOfp
— Vega_Greek (@VegaGreek) May 13, 2021