"If you then discovered that the majority of the committee members had financial interests in the drug being developed, how would you feel?" 1/n
@zoeharcombe @RosemaryFreiTO @simondolan @Francis_Hoar @BreesAnna @toadmeister @NeilClark66 @allisonpearson

#KBF
"The advice was stay home if you’re sick, wash your hands, protect the vulnerable, most people will have a mild illness, wearing face masks is “usually quite a bad idea“, & “big gatherings don’t have a big effect so we don’t want to disrupt people’s lives.” 2/n
"1) Organisations invested in vaccines make money from vaccines. If people acquire natural immunity, they have reduced or no need for a vaccine and thus the potential gain for the vaccine company is reduced." 3/n
"2) Locking people in their homes and other lockdown measures will reduce the number of people who acquire natural immunity." 4/n
"The notable exception was that @neil_ferguson resigned from the SAGE committee when it became known (on 5th May) that he had broken lockdown rules" 5/n
"@neil_ferguson is a member of NERVTAG (The New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group), as are many members of SAGE (which means that the main committee is largely using a subset of that committee to advise itself). 6/n
"12 out of 20 work for/have received funding from organisations involved in the Covid-19 vaccine. Those 12 don’t include Vallance with personal pharmaceutical conflicts or Whitty with historical funding from the Gates foundation." 7/n
Who is on SAGE?
"...4 more are modellers/statisticians, 2 are experts in how to manipulate human behaviour... 3 hold senior roles in the 2 universities leading the vaccine race ... no immunologists ...two virologists" 8/n
“A substantial number of people still do not feel sufficiently personally threatened… The perceived level of personal threat needs to be increased among those who are complacent, using hard‐hitting emotional messaging based on accurate information about risk.” 9/n
This is not public health. This is manipulation.
"The paper has sections on coercion, compulsion and how to harness “social disapproval” to coerce people into doing what government wants them to do." 10/n
https://t.co/NsZ75VIRFR
"SAGE knows that people need to be frightened into compliance for their strategy to work ... I wonder if that fear might turn to anger if people realise that the committee may not be the independent body that it has been assumed to be." 11/n
An investigation into conflict of interest is needed.
A separation between corporation interests, research and government officials must be ensured through system change. Otherwise, history will keep on repeating itself. 12/12

More from Abir Ballan 😊

A brief tutorial in health education to show you how sound health education models have been used for manipulation instead of creating health awareness during the COVID 19 pandemic. We'll uses masks as an example of a health behavior.
Are you ready to explore? 1/n

The Health Belief Model (HBM) consists of 5 components: perceived threat (lethality + Susceptibility),
perceived benefits,
perceived barriers and
cues to action.

Familiarise yourself with the definition of each concept in this table. 2/n
https://t.co/1tOz1cJFvc


Study this diagram to understand how the components are interrelated. 3/n
https://t.co/iUoaqNkgyP


Now let’s apply this to the COVID 19 pandemic.
Review this diagram to see how the HBM applies to the behaviour of mask-wearing.
“perceived susceptibility appeared to be the most significant factor determining compliance” 4/n
https://t.co/xF6uwUx12N


Part I: The HBM
Increase the perceived threat of a disease
1) increase perceived severity: Confusing the general public with CFR & IFR- 2 indicators that are an order of magnitude apart.
People understood wrongly that the fatality rate of C19 is
All you need to know about COVID19
FACTS NOT FEAR

Covid 19 is a disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. SARS-CoV-2 is one of 7 coronaviruses known to man. 1/n

The pandemic is real. Excess deaths were observed in many countries. Not all countries were affected in the same way due to pre-existing immunity, the health status of the population and demographics (the proportion of elderly in the population) 2/n
https://t.co/65elPq3gp5


COVID 19 presents a high risk for the very few and negligible risk for the many.

The infection fatality rate in different age groups:
<19 y, IFR= 0.003%
20-49 y: IFR= 0.02%
50-69 y: 0.5%
>70y, IFR=

Not everybody is susceptible to the virus. If reinfected, pre-existing immunity from related viruses gives protection from developing the disease or from developing serious symptoms.
4/n

“The evidence that a subset of people has a cross-reactive T cell repertoire through exposure to related coronaviruses is
I disagree with you, Alastair. I believe @PanData19 is filling in the gaps that governments have failed to fill. I encourage you to have an open mind and listen intently to what we have to say. 1/n


Here’s how @PanData19 is approaching this crisis differently from governments:
We believe that "health is a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity."- @WHO 2/n

To tackle the problem holistically, we have formed a multidisciplinary team made up of immunologist, microbiologist, geneticists, data scientists, physicians, economist, psychologists, educators, public health professionals and business owners. 3/n

We have also backed ourselves with a scientific advisory board made up of prominent experts in their fields.
@MartinKulldorff
@SunetraGupta
@MLevitt_NP2013
@MichaelYeadon3
#JayBhattacharya
#SucharitBhakdi
They are supporting us every step of the way. 4/n

We believe that "the right to health is one of a set of internationally agreed human rights standards, and is inseparable or ‘indivisible’ from these other rights.” @WHO 5/n

More from Society

I've seen many news articles cite that "the UK variant could be the dominant strain by March". This is emphasized by @CDCDirector.

While this will likely to be the case, this should not be an automatic cause for concern. Cases could still remain contained.

Here's how: 🧵

One of @CDCgov's own models has tracked the true decline in cases quite accurately thus far.

Their projection shows that the B.1.1.7 variant will become the dominant variant in March. But interestingly... there's no fourth wave. Cases simply level out:

https://t.co/tDce0MwO61


Just because a variant becomes the dominant strain does not automatically mean we will see a repeat of Fall 2020.

Let's look at UK and South Africa, where cases have been falling for the past month, in unison with the US (albeit with tougher restrictions):


Furthermore, the claim that the "variant is doubling every 10 days" is false. It's the *proportion of the variant* that is doubling every 10 days.

If overall prevalence drops during the studied time period, the true doubling time of the variant is actually much longer 10 days.

Simple example:

Day 0: 10 variant / 100 cases -> 10% variant
Day 10: 15 variant / 75 cases -> 20% variant
Day 20: 20 variant / 50 cases -> 40% variant

1) Proportion of variant doubles every 10 days
2) Doubling time of variant is actually 20 days
3) Total cases still drop by 50%

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THIS.

Russia hasn't been a willing partner in this treaty for almost 3 decades. We should have ended the pretense long ago.

Naturally, Rand Paul is telling anyone who will listen to him that Trump is making a HUGE MISTAKE here.


Rand is just like his dad, Ron. 100% isolationist.

They've never grasped that 100% isolationist is not 'America First' when you examine it. It really means 'America Alone'.

The consistent grousing of pursuing military alliances with allies - like Trump is doing now with Saudi Arabia.

So of course Rand has also spent the last 2 days loudly calling for Trump to kill the arms deal with Saudi Arabia and end our alliance with them.

What Obama was engineering with his foreign policy was de facto isolationism: pull all the troops out of the ME, abandon the region to Iranian control as a client state of Russia.

Obama wasn't building an alliance with Iran; he was facilitating abandoning the ME to Iran.

Obama wouldn't even leave behind a token security force, so of course what happened was the rise of ISIS. He also pumped billions of dollars into the Iranian coffers, which the Mullah's used to fund destabilizing activity [wars/terrorism] & criminal enterprises all over the globe