The manufacturing trade deficit is up significantly in the first two years of the Trump Presidency. Pretty clear that stimulus and a strong dollar has had a bigger effect than his trade protectionism.

Stimulus has meant strong import growth. Strong dollar has meant weak export growth. Shows up clearly in the nominal data.

Deficit in goods trade ex ag and petrol is closing in a on a trillion dollars (tis just under 5% of GDP)
And since the strong dollar is holding down import prices, the "real" change is likely even bigger ...

Export growth hasn't kept up with import growth since the dollar appreciated in 2014. In fact exports of manufactures haven't grown at all in last 4 years
I know there are technical problems with this measure but it still gives some indication of scale; the "real" non-petrol goods deficit (ex ag) is up $180b (e.g. just under a pp of GDP) in Trump's first 7 quarters.

& that follows on a big increase after the dollar's 14/15 move
p.s. adding services here wouldn't change much (and there isn't any true data for most services for q3, a lot of services trade is estimated in the monthly data)
adjustment that matters is taking out petrol --

real petrol deficit fell in 2017 (less so in 2018)

and huge swing in real and nominal over time

More from Politics

I think a plausible explanation is that whatever Corbyn says or does, his critics will denounce - no matter how much hypocrisy it necessitates.


Corbyn opposes the exploitation of foreign sweatshop-workers - Labour MPs complain he's like Nigel

He speaks up in defence of migrants - Labour MPs whinge that he's not listening to the public's very real concerns about immigration:

He's wrong to prioritise Labour Party members over the public:

He's wrong to prioritise the public over Labour Party
"3 million people are estimated not to have official photo ID, with ethnic minorities more at risk". They will "have to contact their council to confirm their ID if they want to vote"

This is shameful legislation, that does nothing to tackle the problems with UK elections.THREAD


There is no evidence in-person voter fraud is a problem, and it wd be near-impossible to organise on an effective scale. Campaign finance violations, digital disinformation & manipulation of postal voting are bigger issues, but these are crimes of the powerful, not the powerless.

In a democracy, anything that makes it harder to vote - in particular, anything that disadvantages one group of voters - should face an extremely high bar. Compulsory voter ID takes a hammer to 3 million legitimate voters (disproportionately poor & BAME) to crack an imaginary nut

If the government is concerned about the purity of elections, it should reflect on its own conduct. In 2019 it circulated doctored news footage of an opponent, disguised its twitter feed as a fake fact-checking site, and ran adverts so dishonest that even Facebook took them down.

Britain's electoral law largely predates the internet. There is little serious regulation of online campaigning or the cash that pays for it. That allows unscrupulous campaigners to ignore much of the legal framework erected since the C19th to guard against electoral misconduct.

You May Also Like