Seems like a win for @beisgovuk, as @hmtreasury was known to be keen on a carbon tax
2/
UK Energy White Paper is here.
I'll tweet the key points here👇
1/
Link to press
Seems like a win for @beisgovuk, as @hmtreasury was known to be keen on a carbon tax
2/
3/
https://t.co/JBU5HUDrFA
▶️ Heat & Buildings Strat
▶️ Industrial Decarb Strat
▶️ Hydrogen Strat
▶️ Net Zero Strat
▶️ Transport Decarb Plan
And more.
4/
https://t.co/njYHJx0sAI
Powering Out Net Zero Future.
Details to follow 🧵👇
5/
https://t.co/m3EOxuRllG
▶️ Transforming energy
▶️ Supporting a green recovery
▶️ Creating a fair deal for consumers
(page 8)
Sounds good
6/
Includes looking at how decarbonisation costs are split between gas and electricity (they're almost all on elec atm).
(page 30)
7/
8/
By March 2021, Gov will consult on introducing 'opt-in' and 'opt-out' switching for domestic energy customers.
Plus, consultation on more transparency on carbon content of domestic energy supply
(page 33 and page 34)
9/
Gov will consult on changing the energy supplier thresholds for ECO (Energy Company Obligation) and WHD (Warm Homes Discount) for the next phase of scheme (post-2022)
(Page 35)
10/
Obvious move is time-of-use tariffs but also 'Energy as a Service' type offerings.
Important for EV/Heat Pumps to unlock flex.
p.35
11/
By Spring 2021, Gov will consult on regulating third party energy brokers and price comparison websites.
Will also take powers to regulate smart appliances (including for interoperability) "when Parliamentary time allows)
p.36
12/
@beisgovuk reckons that electricity demand could double by 2050, which I think is broadly in line with @theCCCuk and others.
(page 44)
13/
BEIS launches CfE on future of renewable support post-2021 CfD auction, incl. how changes to CfD/wider market design can integrate renewables
@Policy_Exchange had lot to say on this in recent paper *Powering Net Zero*
p.46
14/
https://t.co/4KqOR0ujXh
To tackle barriers incl. networks & env impacts of large-scale RES.
Run by @DefraGovUK and @beisgovuk.
Joined-up planning a big part of @Policy_Exchange paper on North Sea
p47
15/
One project operational by 2030, based on existing CfD regime with amendments (e.g. to make sure that Power CCUS complements RES).
p.47
16/
In early-2021, Gov will consult on changing the 'CCS-ready' requirements for new large-scale gas power plants.
Notes current distortions of 300 MW threshold (ahem, 299MW OCGT projects).
Also notes potential for H2-fired conversions rather than CCS
p.48
17/
Gov aiming for Final Investment Decision on one more large nuclear plant by end of this Parliament (December 2024).
Exploring RAB model "alongside a range of financing options". Not a full-throated endorsement of RAB.
p.49
18/
https://t.co/GSaf9kgCYx
Gov to publish a Call for Evidence shortly, with a preliminary paper in Summer 2021, on "Biomass for Net Zero" including BECCS
In advance of "Biomass Strategy" in 2022.
p.53
19/
Gov to update the National Policy Statement (NPS) by the end of 2021.
Has been controversial because is used to justify development of new fossil fuel power stations.
p. 55
20/
Notes that BEIS wants to improve transparency (an ask from many) including an 'Open Modelling Environment'.
p.60-63
21/
BIES and Ofgem to publish a new 'Smart Systems Plan' in Spring 2021.
Gov to define electricity storage in law "when Parliamentary time allows" (welcome, but many of the barriers to storage already overcome e.g. thru' generation license')
p.72
22/
This is very important, something we flagged in our paper *Powering Net Zero*.
Money looks small, part of £100m investment in storage + flex innovation.
p.73
23/
Gov to legislate to enable competitive tendering for the onshore electricity network, as we already have for offshore wind.
Sounds like the CATO model may finally be completed.
p.76
24/
Including impact of imported emissions, which is always a big concern with imported electricity.
p.79
25/
https://t.co/18h7LAJ2i5
@beisgovuk and @ofgem will publish the UK's first Energy Data Strategy in Spring 2021.
Focuses on where to put infra like EVs chargepoints, as well as improving operational dispatch.
p.81
26/
Government will consult on updating the Gas Act, although this will be a slower process.
Starts with workshops in 2021 and a series of consultations.
p.84
27/
Gov will consult in 2021 on system operation + code governance. Assume this includes ownership/structure of @ng_eso.
Gov also published response to consultation on code governance.
p.85
28/
https://t.co/m1oISF7vqu
Government will consult in 2021 on implementing an SPS to give guidance to @ofgem on Gov vision for energy system.
Background from @ProfCMitchell on SPS here: https://t.co/PTfRN3NDw6
p.86
29/
Flags Heat and Buildings Strategy now expected early-2021.
Government response to Future Homes Standard expected "as soon as possible" - might include more details on the phantom 2023 end date for gas boilers in new homes.
p.102
30/
In 2021, Gov will consult on regulatory measures to improve energy efficiency of owner-occupied homes. Complements ongoing consultation on privately-rented homes.
p.104
31/
This was on of the asks in @Policy_Exchange 2015 paper, Warmer Homes, by @UKenergywonk.
p.109
32/
https://t.co/HOuOhCy1lf
p.110
33/
In late-2021, Gov will publish CfE on hydrogen-ready "boilers, cookers and fires".
p.113
34/
In Spring 2021, Gov will consult on heat networks, including "Local Heat Network Zoning" to coordinate development.
p.115
35/
New 'Green Jobs Taskforce' and a National Skills Fund, to be launched in 2021.
Focusing on energy efficiency and clean heat retrofits.
p.116
36/
Mainly reiterates existing announcements incl:
▶️Industrial Decarb Strategy in Spring 2021
▶️10 MTPA CO2 captured by 2030 in 4 low-carbon clusters.
▶️ H2 strategy in early-21
▶️ UK ETS from Jan-21 (per press release)
37/
Covers industrial CCS and clean H2.
One for the Industrial Decarbon and H2 strategies.
p.130
38/
▶️ Net Zero basin by 2050 (same as UK economy)
▶️ 'Zero Routine Flaring by 2030'
▶️ Highlights potential for re-use of O&G assets for CCS
▶️ Review the OPRED (regulator for env. & decommissioning)
39/
New strategy has a lot more about decarbonisation.
p.140
40/
@Policy_Exchange paper on Future of the North Sea said lots about this.
p.143
41/
https://t.co/m9cCJIOPgw
Government will also publish a draft 'Downstream Oil Resilience' bill to ensure supplies as oil volumes decrease.
p.146
42/42.
And that's it. Lots to do in 2021!
More from Government
Long thread: Because I couldn’t find anything comprehensive, I’m just going to post everything I’ve seen in the news/Twitter about Trump’s activities related to the Jan 6th insurrection. I think the timing & context of his actions/inactions will matter a lot for a senate trial.
12/12: The earlier DC protest over the electoral college vote during clearly inspired Jan 6th. On Dec 12th, he tweeted: “Wow! Thousands of people forming in Washington (D.C.) for Stop the Steal. Didn’t know about this, but I’ll be seeing them! #MAGA.”
12/19: Trump announces the Jan. 6th event by tweeting, “Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!” Immediately, insurrectionists begin to discuss the “Wild Protest.” Just 2 days later, this UK political analyst predicts the violence
12/26-27: Trump announces his participation on Twitter. On Dec. 29, the FBI sends out a nationwide bulletin warning legislatures about attacks https://t.co/Lgl4yk5aO1
1/1: Trump tweets the time of his protest. Then he retweets “The calvary is coming” on Jan. 6!” Sounds like a war? About this time, the FBI begins visiting right wing extremists to tell them not to go--does the FBI tell the president? https://t.co/3OxnB2AHdr
12/12: The earlier DC protest over the electoral college vote during clearly inspired Jan 6th. On Dec 12th, he tweeted: “Wow! Thousands of people forming in Washington (D.C.) for Stop the Steal. Didn’t know about this, but I’ll be seeing them! #MAGA.”
Jumping in for @DCist/@wamu885 this evening. The scene rn coming up 17th Street from BLM Plaza. pic.twitter.com/Fn9aukjEPW
— Matt Blitz (@WhyBlitz) December 12, 2020
12/19: Trump announces the Jan. 6th event by tweeting, “Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!” Immediately, insurrectionists begin to discuss the “Wild Protest.” Just 2 days later, this UK political analyst predicts the violence
On January 6, armed Trumpist militias will be rallying in DC, at Trump's orders. It's highly likely that they'll try to storm the Capitol after it certifies Joe Biden's win. I don't think this has sunk in yet.
— Arieh Kovler (@ariehkovler) December 21, 2020
12/26-27: Trump announces his participation on Twitter. On Dec. 29, the FBI sends out a nationwide bulletin warning legislatures about attacks https://t.co/Lgl4yk5aO1
1/1: Trump tweets the time of his protest. Then he retweets “The calvary is coming” on Jan. 6!” Sounds like a war? About this time, the FBI begins visiting right wing extremists to tell them not to go--does the FBI tell the president? https://t.co/3OxnB2AHdr
The People's Twitter.
And it would definitely not selectively censor unfashionable opinions if it were run by a government bureaucracy.
Because public sector bodies only ever maximise The Common Good.
Could even call it The International Common Good Association, just to make sure
"I don't like the fact that Twitter is so subservient to the woke elites. Let's create a massive state regulator, so that the woke elites, which have a stranglehold on most institutions... oh no, wait..."
(I mean, he's not entirely wrong. His solution may be rubbish, but there is an issue here. Twitter really does have a substantial amount of market power.
Still: There are people who I just will not ever side with, even when they have a point. And that includes Communitarians.)
As far as I can see, there are no good solutions here.
5 years ago, I would have said "Lol, Twitter is just a private company, like any other. The Guardian wouldn't publish anything by me, but that's not "censorship". They're just not letting me use their platform."
However...
...Twitter really does benefit from substantial network effects. We are on Twitter, because everyone else is also on Twitter. You can set up a rival platform, but that would be like being the only person who has a telephone: not very useful, because there's no one you can call.
And it would definitely not selectively censor unfashionable opinions if it were run by a government bureaucracy.
Because public sector bodies only ever maximise The Common Good.
Could even call it The International Common Good Association, just to make sure
As Twitter is the virtual equivalent of a natural monopoly both left & right should agree that it needs to be nationalised as a public utility & subordinated & regulated as a public good but as it is a global phenomenon perhaps it could be governed by an international regulator?
— Phillip Blond (@Phillip_Blond) January 9, 2021
"I don't like the fact that Twitter is so subservient to the woke elites. Let's create a massive state regulator, so that the woke elites, which have a stranglehold on most institutions... oh no, wait..."
(I mean, he's not entirely wrong. His solution may be rubbish, but there is an issue here. Twitter really does have a substantial amount of market power.
Still: There are people who I just will not ever side with, even when they have a point. And that includes Communitarians.)
As far as I can see, there are no good solutions here.
5 years ago, I would have said "Lol, Twitter is just a private company, like any other. The Guardian wouldn't publish anything by me, but that's not "censorship". They're just not letting me use their platform."
However...
...Twitter really does benefit from substantial network effects. We are on Twitter, because everyone else is also on Twitter. You can set up a rival platform, but that would be like being the only person who has a telephone: not very useful, because there's no one you can call.
Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?
The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.
This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta
To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?
The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.
This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta
To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
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Duration: 24/10/2018-23 /10/2019
Funding: $71,500
@dgaytandzhieva
https://t.co/680CdD8uug
2. Bat Virus Database
Access to the database is limited only to those scientists participating in our ‘Bats and Coronaviruses’ project
Our intention is to eventually open up this database to the larger scientific community
https://t.co/mPn7b9HM48
3. EcoHealth Alliance & DTRA Asking for Trouble
One Health research project focused on characterizing bat diversity, bat coronavirus diversity and the risk of bat-borne zoonotic disease emergence in the region.
https://t.co/u6aUeWBGEN
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