BC GOVERNMENT
Saved by @jay_millerjay

Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?

1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020

Can you guess which plot is which?

 The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.

However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).

Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.
This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.

Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.

But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.

This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.

We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).

https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta
To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.

This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
For completeness, here is the correlation between political leaning and intervention levels for all 50 states (R^2 = 0.30).
In the coming months/years, you will see lots of published research incorrectly attribute causal relationship between level of intervention and severity of the fall wave.

But the reality is that political leaning is a heavy confounding variable, and we must be cognizant of this.
Rather than judging a state's pandemic response in a vacuum based on raw cases/deaths, we should instead look at how states expect to do given the demographics.

If we were to use the plot above, then states like WV/ME/VT outperformed expectations, while SD/WI/CA underperformed.
(Of course, we probably need a more complex model with more variables to do a better "expectations" analysis)

For some more single variate correlation analysis, see my thread from last month:

https://t.co/7SZu0Tw3se
Caveat: just because correlations may be "baked in" does not mean that we should just give up and do nothing.

Rather, it's important to tamper expectations. Interventions and restrictions will help, but unless we can change political beliefs, there seems to be a very real limit.
Here's the raw infections data so anyone can replicate these findings: https://t.co/qM3yjeXtND

Election data: https://t.co/PUIJeHoDVg

If anyone finds a stronger explanatory variable, please let me know.
I'll end here. Here's a final takeaway:

It's human nature to want to feel like we can control the future. This applies to everyone, including policy makers and public health experts.

But this pandemic has taught us that sometimes, there is a limit to what we have control over.
Update: A follower suggested incorporating county-level election results (from https://t.co/17nDgW85TP).

Here are the results (2016 left, 2020 right). The correlation is decent given 3000+ data points.

It'd be hard to find another explanatory variable with stronger correlation.
Update #2: Another suggestion was to look at deaths, so here it is.

Left plot is total deaths in the pandemic. Right plot is total deaths since Sep 1, 2020. No correlation on left, decent correlation on right.

More from Government

Canuck11
Canuck11
@TrueCanuck11
1) I have a theory on what’s happening in DC right now. Keep in mind, we’re in unprecedented times. To my knowledge, there has never been a time where foreign powers have infiltrated every level of government in the US, down to the State level.
GOVERNMENT
The SNP
The SNP
@theSNP
First Minister @NicolaSturgeon: "Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us today. I've got quite a lot to cover in my opening remarks today so please bear with me, but it's all by way of important and, I hope, useful update to you."

NS: "First of all, to today's statistics. The total number of positive cases reported yesterday was 2,649."

NS: "That is 11.3% of the total number of tests carried out, and the total number of confirmed cases is now 143,715."

NS: "660 of the new cases are in Greater Glasgow and Clyde, 389 in Lanarkshire, 357 in Lothian and 302 in Tayside. The remaining cases are across 9 other health board areas."

NS: "I can also confirm that 1,467 people are currently in hospital. That is an increase of 83 from yesterday."
GOVERNMENT
Advertisement
Vallachian Rex
Vallachian Rex
@VallachianR
Thread:

Here is a wake up call for those Republicans who believe we're going to take back the House in 2022 and the Presidency in 2024:

You will never win another election in the next 50 years.
The election fraud system perfected by the Democrats and their Deep State agents planted by the Obama cabal was put in place before the 2016 mid term and it is working perfectly.

It worked in 2016 when the GOP lost the House despite Trump being at the height of his popularity and the economy roaring back to life after 8 long years of depression;

It worked in November 2020 when Biden, an elderly man suffering from dementia was declared the winner with 1.5 million more votes than the young, charismatic and energetic Democratic Party political rock star Obama ever had cast for him in both elections he won;

And it worked in 2021 in GA run-offs, after the GOP candidates who were in the lead all day, they got defeated after vote dumps that happened after the counting closed for the day in a repeat of the scenario that happened during the Presidential election.
GOVERNMENT
(((EugeneFreedman)))
(((EugeneFreedman)))
@EugeneFreedman
This NYT interview with Dr. Fauci blows the biggest hole possible in @Ken_Rosenthal's reporting from 10 days ago.

In his article, @Ken_Rosenthal wrote, "The union, by scheduling its own discussion with the same officials for a later date, avoided hearing what the government representatives suggested to MLB, according to sources: a one-month delay, with the idea of getting players..." 2/

"in time to start the season."

Within a day or two the Union had its own meeting with government officials. That was already reported, although perhaps not as widely as the original pieces claiming the Union didn't want to talk to government officials. In a previous thread 3/

I explained that the Union did not want to be on the same call with management because it would lead to the parties posturing on the call, rather than having an honest discussion with the experts, including Fauci. The Union never avoided the discussion, it just wanted 4/

a separate discussion, not a negotiation in front of COVID experts.

But, this interview undermines the original reporting further.

Fauci told the NYT:

The only thing I said was that, from a public health standpoint, it looks like the cases — if you look at the plotting of 5/
GOVERNMENT
Resist the Hologram - Stu Cvrk
Resist the Hologram - ...
@STUinSD
Thread – Excerpt from a 30 Jan Ross Rant

1. These following is an excerpt from a recent “Ross Rant.” Joel Ross publishes these periodic reports that provide commentary on the changing scene with an eye toward wise future investments.
GOVERNMENT

You May Also Like

Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
RISHI BHRINGI AND ARDHA-NAREESHWAR SHIVA

Rishi Bhringi was a devoted bhakt of Mahadev. However, in his devotion to Shiva, he ignored Mata Parvati.

Once, he visited Kailasha along with other Rishis. All the Rishis did parikrama of Shiva and Parvati both except Rishi Bhringi.


The same situation continued whenever Rishi Bhringi visited Kailasha. Mata Parvati decided to teach him that Shiva and Parvati are one and inseparable.
So on one such visit, Mata Parvati sat on the left lap of Mahadev when Rishi Bhringi came.


Seeing this, Rishi Bhringi took the form of a bee(some say bird) and did pradakshina/ parikrama only around Shiva’s head and ignored Ma Parvati.
Angered Mata took away the Shakti from his body. Rishi lost his blood and flesh and was left with a bare skeletal form.


Seeing him in such a situation where he was unable to support himself, Shiva granted a third leg to him.
Shiva then fused one half of his body with that of Ma Parvati and appeared as Ardha Nareeshwar.
Rishi Bhringi finally realised that Shiv and Shakti are one and the same.
🙏🏻
ALL
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
🌺कैसे बने गरुड़ भगवान विष्णु के वाहन और क्यों दो भागों में फटी होती है नागों की जिह्वा🌺

महर्षि कश्यप की तेरह पत्नियां थीं।लेकिन विनता व कद्रु नामक अपनी दो पत्नियों से उन्हे विशेष लगाव था।एक दिन महर्षि आनन्दभाव में बैठे थे कि तभी वे दोनों उनके समीप आकर उनके पैर दबाने लगी।


प्रसन्न होकर महर्षि कश्यप बोले,"मुझे तुम दोनों से विशेष लगाव है, इसलिए यदि तुम्हारी कोई विशेष इच्छा हो तो मुझे बताओ। मैं उसे अवश्य पूरा करूंगा ।"

कद्रू बोली,"स्वामी! मेरी इच्छा है कि मैं हज़ार पुत्रों की मां बनूंगी।"
विनता बोली,"स्वामी! मुझे केवल एक पुत्र की मां बनना है जो इतना बलवान हो की कद्रू के हज़ार पुत्रों पर भारी पड़े।"
महर्षि बोले,"शीघ्र ही मैं यज्ञ करूंगा और यज्ञ के उपरांत तुम दोनो की इच्छाएं अवश्य पूर्ण होंगी"।


महर्षि ने यज्ञ किया,विनता व कद्रू को आशीर्वाद देकर तपस्या करने चले गए। कुछ काल पश्चात कद्रू ने हज़ार अंडों से काले सर्पों को जन्म दिया व विनता ने एक अंडे से तेजस्वी बालक को जन्म दिया जिसका नाम गरूड़ रखा।जैसे जैसे समय बीता गरुड़ बलवान होता गया और कद्रू के पुत्रों पर भारी पड़ने लगा


परिणामस्वरूप दिन प्रतिदिन कद्रू व विनता के सम्बंधों में कटुता बढ़ती गयी।एकदिन जब दोनो भ्रमण कर रहीं थी तब कद्रू ने दूर खड़े सफेद घोड़े को देख कर कहा,"बता सकती हो विनता!दूर खड़ा वो घोड़ा किस रंग का है?"
विनता बोली,"सफेद रंग का"।
तो कद्रू बोली,"शर्त लगाती हो? इसकी पूँछ तो काली है"।
ALL
Advertisement
WORLD OF SANATAN DHARMA
WORLD OF SANATAN DHARM...
@world_sanatan
EVOLUTION OF CROWNS

The ancient Indian kings called a head crown as a Mukut and it would mostly constitute of a golden ornamental headgear like an oval cap with gems.

Sometimes it would also include a halo circle to show the divinity of the king

1/7


As it was considered that kings were appointment by the gods themselves. Example the kings of mewar considered themselves to be the ‘Diwan of eklingji')

But in most cases very few Mukut with halo effect have been found.

2/7

Samudragupta in the gupta era coin. You can see the helmet like headwear on him.

Till gupta era the solid golden head wear was used in most days of the monarch.

But since the onset of 8th century it reduced in usage and was now used only as a ceremonial headwear.

3/7


Whereas earlier the Maharaja had to wear the mukut whenever his court was in session.

Still mukut was being used prominently for ceremonial activities till recent times.

Maharaj Dahir of Sindh👇

4/7


But as times past the style of headwear also changed.

The kings mostly wore turbans ordained with pearls and gems while rarely anyone wore a true Mukut after 16th century.

Portrait of Sri Krishna Dev Raya👇

5/7
ALL
\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0932\u0940 \u0939\u093f\u0924\u0947\u0936 \u0905\u0935\u0938\u094d\u0925\u0940
श्रीमाली हितेश अवस्थी...
@HiteshAwasthi89
#Thread
Lessor known facts of Sudarshan Chakra or Neela Chakra of Puri Jagannath Temple.

The metal wheel at the top of Bhagwan Jagannath temple is also known as Neela Chakra (Blue Wheel). The wheel is made of eight metals comprising of.. 1/n


iron, copper, zinc, mercury, lead, brass, silver & gold. It's circumferance is about 36 feet & it is so designed that there is a wheel within the wheel. The circumferance of the inner wheel is about 26 feet. Eight hubs join together the inner and the outer wheels. 2/n


There are decorative designs on the outer wheel. The thickness of the Neela Chakra is 2 inches.The wheel is said to be Bhagwan Vishnu's most powerful weapon, Sudarshana Chakra. Inside Jagannath temple, Lord Vishnu's wheel is also worshipped in the name of 'Sudarshana'. 3/n


But inside the temple Sudarshana is not in the shape of a wheel, but in the shape of a small wood pillar placed to the left of image of bhagwan Jagannath. It is believed that the same Sudarshana is also at the top of the temple and is known by the name of Neela Chakra. 4/n


There is a specific category of people among the temple sevaks to serve the Neela Chakra and they are known as Garuda Sevaka or Chunara Nejoga. The pilgrims hold these sevaks in high esteem because everyday at Sunset. 5/n
ALL
Vikrant
Vikrant
@Trading0secrets
Trading view scanner process -

1 - open trading view in your browser and select stock scanner in left corner down side .

2 - touch the percentage% gain change ( and u can see higest gainer of today)


3. Then, start with 6% gainer to 20% gainer and look charts of everyone in daily Timeframe . (For fno selection u can choose 1% to 4% )

4. Then manually select the stocks which are going to give all time high BO or 52 high BO or already given.

5. U can also select those stocks which are going to give range breakout or already given range BO

6 . If in 15 min chart📊 any stock sustaing near BO zone or after BO then select it on your watchlist

7 . Now next day if any stock show momentum u can take trade in it with RM

This looks very easy & simple but,

U will amazed to see it's result if you follow proper risk management.

I did 4x my capital by trading in only momentum stocks.

I will keep sharing such learning thread 🧵 for you 🙏💞🙏

Keep learning / keep sharing 🙏
@AdityaTodmal
EQUITY , TRADINGTHREAD , TRADINGVIEW