Position Size, inputs requested;
@Trendmyfriend2 @SouravSenguptaI @wakeupsidbaba

#Fed predicts higher growth and higher inflation , #dx corrected sharply , If Dx eventually maintains below 91, Emerging market bull run may resume
#Nifty

Why & how does rising Crude Oil hurt India?

A short thread 🧵

India is the 3rd largest consumer of Oil at 5.35 million barrels per day (MBPD) behind US (21.2mbpd) and China (15.1mbpd)

India imports nearly 85% of its total Crude oil consumption every year.

India's own production has been below 700,000 barrels per day for a long time.

India imports oil in the following share as per FY 21 numbers:

Iran 17%,
Saudi Arabia 16%,
UAE 14%,
USA 9%,
Qatar 8%,
Others 38%

India import share for Oil from Russia is under 2%, an insignificant number.

India imports about 290 Million tones of Oil in a year.

Assuming that Oil prices are at $75 (last year),
India's oil import bill is ~ $165bn

India exports refined petroleum products as well. At $75 oil price those exports would amount to $58bn

=Oil trade deficit of $105bn

Oil at:
$100, India's oil trade deficit (imports - exports) would be ~ $140bn

For every $10 rise in Crude Oil from say $100, India's oil trade deficit will rise by ~$15bn

For instance at $120 Oil price it would be ~ $170bn

How bond yields impact the 📉📊📈 stock market & what should investors do ?

@smallcaseHQ
@zerodhaonline

#bonds

#bondyields

#inflation

content via @bsindia

🔽

Let's Understand why Narrative is important in investing and how to create a Thesis that can help you to hold a stock in spite of the market environments

Time for a thread with international and Indian examples, Please retweet so that everyone can benefit 🧵🧵🧵🧵

The world we see and defined is given meaning by the words we choose to use. In short, the world is what we make of it. Something similar applies to creating a thesis before investing in a stock. Your thesis is what makes you hold a stock thick and through in spite of bull/bear

Example 1: Amazon- In May 1997, Amazon became a publically listed business. The target price set by analysts was $18 per share. It finished its first day at $23 per share. (So much for targets). In 1999, in the middle of the tech bubble. Same stock was trading at $100 per share.

Analysts were giving targets of $300 per share. However, after the collapse of the bubble many internet businesses went bust, but Amazon survived in spite of a 78% drop from 1999 highs. As we all know, Price changes perception. Same analysts started claiming it was massively

overpriced and claimed its days were "numbered". By the end of 2002, it was trading at 90times cash flow (so much for multiples to account for future)