They need repeat custom.
The payments wars in Japan are heating up and one of the battlegrounds is convenience store coffee.
“Coffee? What does that have to do with payments?” I’m glad you asked.
They need repeat custom.
The price point is $1 to about $2.
But the coffee is not very defensible
Enter payment apps.
And since booze and tobacco can’t meaningfully be used...
Family Mart has a closed loop store value app called Family Pay. It is a barcode based payment and does basically what you expect it to.
It is also a coupon platform, and will sell you an anywhere-in-chain “11 drinks for price of 10.”
App tracks progress. 6 more to go!
(I cropped the screen to avoid giving you a barcode that would let anyone snatch my coffee.)
Automating all of this and having funds flow go Corp -> franchisee not F>C>F ameliorated problem.
More from Patrick McKenzie
Here's how I'd measure the health of any tech company:
— Jeff Atwood (@codinghorror) October 25, 2018
How long, as measured from the inception of idea to the modified software arriving in the user's hands, does it take to roll out a *1 word copy change* in your primary product?
Hiring efficiency:
How long does it take, measured from initial expression of interest through offer of employment signed, for a typical candidate cold inbounding to the company?
What is the *theoretical minimum* for *any* candidate?
How long does it take, as a developer newly hired at the company:
* To get a fully credentialed machine issued to you
* To get a fully functional development environment on that machine which could push code to production immediately
* To solo ship one material quanta of work
How long does it take, from first idea floated to "It's on the Internet", to create a piece of marketing collateral.
(For bonus points: break down by ambitiousness / form factor.)
How many people have to say yes to do something which is clearly worth doing which costs $5,000 / $15,000 / $250,000 and has never been done before.
If everyone was holding bitcoin on the old x86 in their parents basement, we would be finding a price bottom. The problem is the risk is all pooled at a few brokerages and a network of rotten exchanges with counter party risk that makes AIG circa 2008 look like a good credit.
— Greg Wester (@gwestr) November 25, 2018
The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.
This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.
The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."
This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.
More from Finance
I credit Fintwit for my learnings.
Here's 10 key concepts every investor must know:
1. $$ needed to retire
2. Researching a business
3. Reading annual reports
4. Reading earnings calls
5. Criteria of a multi bagger
(Read on...)
6. Holding a multi bagger
7. Economic moats
8. When to buy a stock
9. Earnings vs cashflow
10. Traits of quality companies
Here's my 10 favourite threads on these concepts:
1. How much $$ do you need to retire
Before you start, you must know the end game.
To meet your retirement goals...
How much $$ do you need in your portfolio?
10-K Diver does a good job explaining what's a safe withdrawl rate.
Hint: It's NOT
1/
— 10-K Diver (@10kdiver) July 25, 2020
Get a cup of coffee.
In this thread, I'll help you work out how much money you need to retire.
2. Research a business
Your investment returns are a lagging indicator.
Instead, your research skills are the leading predictor of your results.
Conclusion?
To be a good investor, you must be a great business researcher.
Start with
1/ Thoughts on Research Process
— Mostly Borrowed Ideas (@borrowed_ideas) September 27, 2021
I was invited to present my research process at a college in the US. I am sharing all ten slides here. pic.twitter.com/z0tjZcogfH
3. Reading annual reports
This is the bread and butter of a good business analyst.
You cannot just listen to opinions from others.
You must learn to deep dive a business and make your own judgments.
Start with the 10k.
Ming Zhao explains it
\U0001f9d0How to Read 10Ks Like a Hedge Fund\U0001f9d0
— Ming Zhao (@FabiusMercurius) May 7, 2021
\u201cFundamentals don\u2019t matter anymore!\u201d I\u2019ve heard this a lot lately on Fintwit.\U0001f644
But, for those who\u2019ve diversify beyond $GME and $DOGE, here\u2019s a primer on what metrics fundamental buy-side PMs look at and why:
(real examples outlined)
\U0001f447 pic.twitter.com/tLlNRvpnDK
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This New York Times feature shows China with a Gini Index of less than 30, which would make it more equal than Canada, France, or the Netherlands. https://t.co/g3Sv6DZTDE
That's weird. Income inequality in China is legendary.
Let's check this number.
2/The New York Times cites the World Bank's recent report, "Fair Progress? Economic Mobility across Generations Around the World".
The report is available here:
3/The World Bank report has a graph in which it appears to show the same value for China's Gini - under 0.3.
The graph cites the World Development Indicators as its source for the income inequality data.
4/The World Development Indicators are available at the World Bank's website.
Here's the Gini index: https://t.co/MvylQzpX6A
It looks as if the latest estimate for China's Gini is 42.2.
That estimate is from 2012.
5/A Gini of 42.2 would put China in the same neighborhood as the U.S., whose Gini was estimated at 41 in 2013.
I can't find the <30 number anywhere. The only other estimate in the tables for China is from 2008, when it was estimated at 42.8.