And they said don't worry, it's just teething problems
First they came for the ๐
And John Redwood said the ๐ฌ๐ง fishing industry would adjust
And they said don't worry, it's just teething problems
And there the Minister wrote a letter saying ๐ช๐บ was wrong, when his officials knew ๐ช๐บ was right
They're still waiting
We do not recognise the numbers, the ๐ฌ๐ง Government says
They cannot even send the potatoes to Northern Ireland
So they set up operations in ๐ช๐บ countries, something ๐ฌ๐ง Department for International Trade acknowledged was a good idea
So they put on half a dozen ๐ฎ๐ช-๐ซ๐ท โด routes to avoid ๐ฌ๐ง altogether
And so the boss of the ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ๐ฆ "warns" ๐ช๐บ they are being unfair, but has no solution
No one knows who will do the jobs these people did once the economy recovers somewhat post-COVID
However you look at it, this makes *no sense*
It's not if you're pro-Brexit or not. It's about having a sensible view of the economic future of the country. Where is it?
/ends
More from Jon Worth
A quick thread about night trains
The transport ministers from ๐ฉ๐ช๐ฆ๐น๐ซ๐ท๐จ๐ญ, and the CEOs of the state-owned ๐ operators in each (DB, รBB, SNCF, SBB), held a press conference about night trains today...
This slide summarises what they'd agreed
Don't get me wrong: night trains are *good*, and the trains on these routes will be รBB NightJet services, and รBB runs the best night trains there are in Europe.
I personally will be very happy to take these trains.
But so much for the good news.
Most of these routes have *already* been announced (Zรผrich to BCN, Rome, Amsterdam) - see https://t.co/7JnAo74tIX
Or have been even trialled (Vienna-Brussels) - see
That means only really the parts of the trains going to Paris and Berlin are in some way new - and even then we don't know how this will work (old Berlin-Paris night train went *through* Brussels)
In short: we're talking today about something like 4-6 new train services a day
In comparison: DB has 400 ICE units, SNCF 600 TGVs.
All of this is a *drop in the ocean*.
The transport ministers from ๐ฉ๐ช๐ฆ๐น๐ซ๐ท๐จ๐ญ, and the CEOs of the state-owned ๐ operators in each (DB, รBB, SNCF, SBB), held a press conference about night trains today...
This slide summarises what they'd agreed
Don't get me wrong: night trains are *good*, and the trains on these routes will be รBB NightJet services, and รBB runs the best night trains there are in Europe.
I personally will be very happy to take these trains.
But so much for the good news.
Most of these routes have *already* been announced (Zรผrich to BCN, Rome, Amsterdam) - see https://t.co/7JnAo74tIX
Or have been even trialled (Vienna-Brussels) - see
That means only really the parts of the trains going to Paris and Berlin are in some way new - and even then we don't know how this will work (old Berlin-Paris night train went *through* Brussels)
In short: we're talking today about something like 4-6 new train services a day
In comparison: DB has 400 ICE units, SNCF 600 TGVs.
All of this is a *drop in the ocean*.
To those saying that those who have got their public health advice wrong earlier in the pandemic should put up their hands and apologise... a little cautionary lesson from another sector
A short ๐งต
1/
Public health is not my thing
But Brexit is
And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does
2/12
The three series of #BrexitDiagram I made in 2019 were extraordinarily accurate
Series 1/2
https://t.co/wOSzIXxJ2M
Series 3
https://t.co/E4fKeGoa5n
Series 4
https://t.co/yRsQ8mLGj1
Each series got that stage of Brexit right
3/12
The 2020 series was nowhere near as good - at one stage I had No Deal Brexit at 78% chance in early December - and that was not what
I own this error - I was wrong
I know *why* I was wrong - I thought the European Parliament would fight more on Provisional Application, and I thought agreeing everything in a week wouldn't work. I wasn't right
The Manston crisis / borders closing changed something too
5/12
A short ๐งต
1/
Public health is not my thing
But Brexit is
And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does
2/12
The three series of #BrexitDiagram I made in 2019 were extraordinarily accurate
Series 1/2
https://t.co/wOSzIXxJ2M
Series 3
https://t.co/E4fKeGoa5n
Series 4
https://t.co/yRsQ8mLGj1
Each series got that stage of Brexit right
3/12
The 2020 series was nowhere near as good - at one stage I had No Deal Brexit at 78% chance in early December - and that was not what
I own this error - I was wrong
I know *why* I was wrong - I thought the European Parliament would fight more on Provisional Application, and I thought agreeing everything in a week wouldn't work. I wasn't right
The Manston crisis / borders closing changed something too
5/12
OK, it can be avoided no more.
This is perhaps the most complex ๐งต on #Brexit I've ever attempted. But this issue really matters.
Business, possibly even lives, depend on getting this stuff right.
It is about the complexity of Brexit delay, and what to do about it.
1/25
If negotiations had gone to plan, it would have worked thus:
1๏ธโฃ ๐ฌ๐ง&๐ช๐บ agree a Deal, politically
2๏ธโฃ That is then turned into a legally ratifiable text
3๏ธโฃ Both sides then ratify - on ๐ช๐บ side Member States and the EP, ๐ฌ๐ง side the Houses of Parliament
4๏ธโฃ Deal in force 1.1.2021
2/25
The problem: we do not have 1๏ธโฃ yet.
And with just over 16 days to go - including ๐ฒ - we do not have time for 2๏ธโฃ and 3๏ธโฃ and hence no 4๏ธโฃ.
We *might* have time for 2๏ธโฃ - and that could prove to be significant (see tweet 7 below), but definitely not 3๏ธโฃ on ๐ช๐บ side.
3/25
*Essential* problem: by having spent so long talking (I think ๐ฌ๐ง tactic has been to run down the clock - https://t.co/8EJZAJZHqz ) the path to a normal ratification is now โ๏ธ.
Now ratification becomes harder - legally, politically, practically - with every passing hour.
4/25
The most obvious stumbling block is...
๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
... the European Parliament!
Parliamentary sovereignty, eh? A topic for another time.
Anyway, the EP has said it will not vote on a Brexit Deal this
This is perhaps the most complex ๐งต on #Brexit I've ever attempted. But this issue really matters.
Business, possibly even lives, depend on getting this stuff right.
It is about the complexity of Brexit delay, and what to do about it.
1/25
If negotiations had gone to plan, it would have worked thus:
1๏ธโฃ ๐ฌ๐ง&๐ช๐บ agree a Deal, politically
2๏ธโฃ That is then turned into a legally ratifiable text
3๏ธโฃ Both sides then ratify - on ๐ช๐บ side Member States and the EP, ๐ฌ๐ง side the Houses of Parliament
4๏ธโฃ Deal in force 1.1.2021
2/25
The problem: we do not have 1๏ธโฃ yet.
And with just over 16 days to go - including ๐ฒ - we do not have time for 2๏ธโฃ and 3๏ธโฃ and hence no 4๏ธโฃ.
We *might* have time for 2๏ธโฃ - and that could prove to be significant (see tweet 7 below), but definitely not 3๏ธโฃ on ๐ช๐บ side.
3/25
*Essential* problem: by having spent so long talking (I think ๐ฌ๐ง tactic has been to run down the clock - https://t.co/8EJZAJZHqz ) the path to a normal ratification is now โ๏ธ.
Now ratification becomes harder - legally, politically, practically - with every passing hour.
4/25
The most obvious stumbling block is...
๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
... the European Parliament!
Parliamentary sovereignty, eh? A topic for another time.
Anyway, the EP has said it will not vote on a Brexit Deal this
Pretty clear again speaking to Mep's they won't countenance debating or ratifying any EU-UK trade agreement before December 31st #Brexit
— Shona Murray (@ShonaMurray_) December 15, 2020
Mep's are pretty annoyed at the very suggestion that it would be provisionally applied and the ratification would be a simple rubber stamp.
More from Finance
1/ I'm thrilled to announce the launch of my new website, a one-stop shop for all the content I'm creating.
There you'll find links to all my podcasts, the TTMYGH newsletter, and other exciting future projects.
2/ In 2020, I reignited my passion for interviewing brilliant people by launching The Grant Williams Podcast in various forms, including The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, and The Narrative Game.
3/ Starting February 1, I'm taking the bold step of moving these podcasts completely behind a paywall.
For the very affordable price of only $10 a month, listeners can gain access to the Copper Tier of https://t.co/fxUfH8maI4, which includes all current & future podcasts.
4/ Why am I doing this? First and foremost, I aspire to create VALUABLE content. By definition, if something is priced at $0, it isnโt valuable. The time, effort and creativity that goes into these episodes is substantial. To keep doing them properly, they can no longer be free.
5/ I also strongly believe content creators should be able to make a living creating content. If everything is free, thatโs not possible. I never seriously considered accepting outside sponsors โ complete integrity is too critical to me.
There you'll find links to all my podcasts, the TTMYGH newsletter, and other exciting future projects.
2/ In 2020, I reignited my passion for interviewing brilliant people by launching The Grant Williams Podcast in various forms, including The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, and The Narrative Game.
3/ Starting February 1, I'm taking the bold step of moving these podcasts completely behind a paywall.
For the very affordable price of only $10 a month, listeners can gain access to the Copper Tier of https://t.co/fxUfH8maI4, which includes all current & future podcasts.
4/ Why am I doing this? First and foremost, I aspire to create VALUABLE content. By definition, if something is priced at $0, it isnโt valuable. The time, effort and creativity that goes into these episodes is substantial. To keep doing them properly, they can no longer be free.
5/ I also strongly believe content creators should be able to make a living creating content. If everything is free, thatโs not possible. I never seriously considered accepting outside sponsors โ complete integrity is too critical to me.
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The UN just voted to condemn Israel 9 times, and the rest of the world 0.
View the resolutions and voting results here:
The resolution titled "The occupied Syrian Golan," which condemns Israel for "repressive measures" against Syrian citizens in the Golan Heights, was adopted by a vote of 151 - 2 - 14.
Israel and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/HoO7oz0dwr
The resolution titled "Israeli practices affecting the human rights of the Palestinian people..." was adopted by a vote of 153 - 6 - 9.
Australia, Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/1Ntpi7Vqab
The resolution titled "Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and the occupied Syrian Golan" was adopted by a vote of 153 โ 5 โ 10.
Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/REumYgyRuF
The resolution titled "Applicability of the Geneva Convention... to the
Occupied Palestinian Territory..." was adopted by a vote of 154 - 5 - 8.
Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/xDAeS9K1kW
View the resolutions and voting results here:
The resolution titled "The occupied Syrian Golan," which condemns Israel for "repressive measures" against Syrian citizens in the Golan Heights, was adopted by a vote of 151 - 2 - 14.
Israel and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/HoO7oz0dwr
The resolution titled "Israeli practices affecting the human rights of the Palestinian people..." was adopted by a vote of 153 - 6 - 9.
Australia, Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/1Ntpi7Vqab
The resolution titled "Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and the occupied Syrian Golan" was adopted by a vote of 153 โ 5 โ 10.
Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/REumYgyRuF
The resolution titled "Applicability of the Geneva Convention... to the
Occupied Palestinian Territory..." was adopted by a vote of 154 - 5 - 8.
Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/xDAeS9K1kW