On Jan 6, 2021, the always stellar Mr @deepakshenoy tweeted, this:
https://t.co/fa3GX9VnW0
Innocuous 1 sentence, but its a full economic theory at play.
Let me break it down for you. (1/n)
91 day TBills at 3.03%. Interest rates are even lower than RBI has them.
— Deepak Shenoy (@deepakshenoy) January 6, 2021
In essence, if RBI opts and continues to manage exchange rate, then that is "fiddling with the exchange rate"
RBI has done that in the past and has restarted it in 2020 - very explicitly. (3/n)
Implying INR will be bought from the open markets in order to prevent INR from falling vis a vis USD (4/n)
https://t.co/9kpWP7ovyM
Which is what the subject of my Sept 2020 essay with @CFASocietyIndia was. (6/n)
This:
Consider three legs of a stool of an economy-
a. Ability of Dollar to flow in when excess in global economy
b. Fixed Exchange Rate
c. Ability to set interest rates (7/n)
You can choose any 2 of the 3 legs.
Choose : controlled interest rate (and hence low inflation) and fixed INR/USD rate, you cannot have an open economy.
Which India was till 1992. (8/n)
INR will fluctuate around.
Which India has adopted in the recent years. (9/n)
Many famous currency bets were made because central banks sought to ignore this theory. (10/n)
Because RBI has chosen to have a 'fixed exchange rate' (or at least as fixed as markets would allow) and an open economy, it is losing its influence on setting the interest rates in the market (12/n)
More from Economy
What do a Tory Peer, Selwyn Gummer (Lord Chadlington), David Sumner ( Sumner Group Holdings) and the Sanchez Perez family (drugs money, laundered through Gold mines) have in common?
It’s another company-saving a £50 million PPE contract shaggy dog story
Connections, connections
What a start to the story
“A bulletproof truck trundled down the road in downtown Lima, guarded by 18 policeman
They were wearing body armour & wielding high velocity rifles
No-one was taking any chances
This was a Special delivery for Peruvian Prosecutor for an anti drug trial
That was in 2011, the same year that Lord Chadlington’s daughter got married in Chadlington to Henry Allsopp.
Who was there?
Yes Kirstie Allsopp of Location, location, location and all this Covid nonsense fame) is his sister
Camilla, his Godmother
Jeremy Hunt
Cameron
Well. Come on. Lord Chadlington had been chair of the local Witney Conservative Association. It’s only fair.
Hang on. Julian Wheatland, Director of SCL Group/ Cambridge Analytica had also been chair of Witney Conservative Association...and campaigned for his mate Cameron
Are we sure Julian Wheatland and his side kick Alexander Nix were not there too @JolyonMaugham ?
I mean. They move in the same North Oxford circles.
It’s another company-saving a £50 million PPE contract shaggy dog story
Connections, connections
The *staggering* tale of a Tory Peer and a \xa350m PPE contract. https://t.co/SH2qxOmfQ4
— Jo Maugham (@JolyonMaugham) December 10, 2020
What a start to the story
“A bulletproof truck trundled down the road in downtown Lima, guarded by 18 policeman
They were wearing body armour & wielding high velocity rifles
No-one was taking any chances
This was a Special delivery for Peruvian Prosecutor for an anti drug trial
That was in 2011, the same year that Lord Chadlington’s daughter got married in Chadlington to Henry Allsopp.
Who was there?
Yes Kirstie Allsopp of Location, location, location and all this Covid nonsense fame) is his sister
Camilla, his Godmother
Jeremy Hunt
Cameron
Well. Come on. Lord Chadlington had been chair of the local Witney Conservative Association. It’s only fair.
Hang on. Julian Wheatland, Director of SCL Group/ Cambridge Analytica had also been chair of Witney Conservative Association...and campaigned for his mate Cameron
Are we sure Julian Wheatland and his side kick Alexander Nix were not there too @JolyonMaugham ?
I mean. They move in the same North Oxford circles.
1/OK, let's take a little break from Coup Twitter, and think about an economic issue:
How can we build up the wealth of the middle class?
2/The typical American has surprisingly little wealth compared to the typical resident of many other developed countries.
This is a fact that is not widely known or appreciated.
3/Now, some people argue that stuff like Social Security or social insurance programs should be included in wealth. But I chose to focus on private wealth because I think having assets you can sell whenever you want is important to
4/For many decades after World War 2, middle-class wealth in America was on a smooth upward trajectory.
Then the housing crash came, and all that changed. Suddenly the rich were still doing well but everyone else was seeing the end of their American Dream.
5/Why the divergence?
Because the American middle class has its wealth in houses -- specifically, in the houses they live in.
It's the rich who own stocks.
How can we build up the wealth of the middle class?
2/The typical American has surprisingly little wealth compared to the typical resident of many other developed countries.
This is a fact that is not widely known or appreciated.
3/Now, some people argue that stuff like Social Security or social insurance programs should be included in wealth. But I chose to focus on private wealth because I think having assets you can sell whenever you want is important to
Yes, these numbers don't include things like Social Security, just privately held wealth. They're not an attempt to capitalize every possible future income stream.
— Noahtogolpe \U0001f407 (@Noahpinion) January 10, 2021
4/For many decades after World War 2, middle-class wealth in America was on a smooth upward trajectory.
Then the housing crash came, and all that changed. Suddenly the rich were still doing well but everyone else was seeing the end of their American Dream.
5/Why the divergence?
Because the American middle class has its wealth in houses -- specifically, in the houses they live in.
It's the rich who own stocks.
