Someone tosses a coin ten times; it comes up heads every time. What's the probability it comes up heads on the next toss? (Pretty darn high—part of @nntaleb's work is unprogramming you from your high-school rules of thumb.) Now consider the (related) Gambler's fallacy...
Very interesting thread. For more general cases (\U0001f447) I proposed skin in the game as \u201cwhat makes imitation work\u201d but didn\u2019t consider professional scammers incl. casinos
— Luca Dellanna (@DellAnnaLuca) January 18, 2021
Both scammers and casinos artificially inflate the crowd to provide an illusion of \u201cI can\u2019t be the only idiot.\u201d https://t.co/cMUrQpxc15
More from Simon DeDeo
Imagine for a moment the most obscurantist, jargon-filled, po-mo article the politically correct academy might produce. Pure SJW nonsense. Got it? Chances are you're imagining something like the infamous "Feminist Glaciology" article from a few years back.https://t.co/NRaWNREBvR pic.twitter.com/qtSFBYY80S
— Jeffrey Sachs (@JeffreyASachs) October 13, 2018
The article is, at heart, deeply weird, even essentialist. Here, for example, is the claim that proposing climate engineering is a "man" thing. Also a "man" thing: attempting to get distance from a topic, approaching it in a disinterested fashion.
Also a "man" thing—physical courage. (I guess, not quite: physical courage "co-constitutes" masculinist glaciology along with nationalism and colonialism.)
There's criticism of a New York Times article that talks about glaciology adventures, which makes a similar point.
At the heart of this chunk is the claim that glaciology excludes women because of a narrative of scientific objectivity and physical adventure. This is a strong claim! It's not enough to say, hey, sure, sounds good. Is it true?
More from Crypto
If everyone was holding bitcoin on the old x86 in their parents basement, we would be finding a price bottom. The problem is the risk is all pooled at a few brokerages and a network of rotten exchanges with counter party risk that makes AIG circa 2008 look like a good credit.
— Greg Wester (@gwestr) November 25, 2018
The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.
This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.
The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."
This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.
1) Is Blockfi profitable?
2) How much money does BlockFi have on its balance sheet?
3) Is the yield that BlockFi pays to its depositors earned or subsidized by billionaire investors?
4) Has BlockFi ever been profitable?
5) Are you planning to go public?
When is the interview published? @otisa502
— Jakob.Cel (@HedegaardJakob) February 14, 2021
Step 1: $BTC has a huge correction. Every range starts with either a pump (or dump) and then follows with a dump (or pump). In this case, #Bitcoin pumped and is now pulling back. This is
If you want #Altseason, you should want $BTC to make a decent sized pullback. Ranges start after huge moves in both directions, IMO we need to see some cooling off before the ranging starts. Plz give 26k. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/yLG9xSrbKz
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) January 3, 2021
Step 2: $BTC ranges big once it finds a bottom. This will allow it to reaccumulate for a big summer run in 2021. This is HEALTHY IMO.
Step 3: Once $BTC finds a bottom and starts to grind up again, I expect $ALTS to do very very well in both alt/usd and alt/btc pairs. ALTSZN is almost always characterized by strong alt/btc pairs moving- I've already accumulated most and have done my final buying today and more.
$BTC.D typically has a very nice time during this time of the year. I was off on December prediction bc I thought $BTC was going to pull back by then but oh well! #Altcoins will start their pumping time VERY soon now.
$BTC.D: This is the chart for inverse #Bitcoin Dominance, the macro chart you need to check out for #Altcoins and when they have their runs. Still potentially more pain to go for $ALTS but I'm thinking that they will turn around strong when $BTC is done w. its run. pic.twitter.com/Q8ewTSRywp
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) December 27, 2020
More information on what #Altseason is and $ALTS market
Big #Altcoin thread for $ALTS: Where are we at in the cycle, how long do we have, is this #ALTSEASON, what are the relationships like, all of that. $BTC #Bitcoin $ETH $LINK #Altcoins pic.twitter.com/nwVjgZu4fw
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) November 9, 2020
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1. IQ is one of the most heritable psychological traits – that is, individual differences in IQ are strongly associated with individual differences in genes (at least in fairly typical modern environments). https://t.co/3XxzW9bxLE
2. The heritability of IQ *increases* from childhood to adulthood. Meanwhile, the effect of the shared environment largely fades away. In other words, when it comes to IQ, nature becomes more important as we get older, nurture less. https://t.co/UqtS1lpw3n
3. IQ scores have been increasing for the last century or so, a phenomenon known as the Flynn effect. https://t.co/sCZvCst3hw (N ≈ 4 million)
(Note that the Flynn effect shows that IQ isn't 100% genetic; it doesn't show that it's 100% environmental.)
4. IQ predicts many important real world outcomes.
For example, though far from perfect, IQ is the single-best predictor of job performance we have – much better than Emotional Intelligence, the Big Five, Grit, etc. https://t.co/rKUgKDAAVx https://t.co/DWbVI8QSU3
5. Higher IQ is associated with a lower risk of death from most causes, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, most forms of cancer, homicide, suicide, and accident. https://t.co/PJjGNyeQRA (N = 728,160)