As a “lifelong” technician, I am finding that bitcoin lends itself well to technical analysis. Here is my take on the recent price action. (THREAD)

Elliott Wave Theory: Looking at the chart pattern since the recent high of 64,870, I can't help but notice that a textbook 5-wave decline may be unfolding. According to EWT, primary trends move in 5 waves and corrections are 3 waves. /2
The typical progression is that wave 1 is generally dismissed as noise, then wave 2 is a sharp and deep retracement of wave 1 (at least 62% but sometimes 75% or more), which creates the false comfort that it was indeed just a minor correction. /3
Then wave 3 comes & that's the big one. It's called the recognition wave & is typically the longest & most impulsive wave (usually 1.618x wave 1). /4
After the wave 3 low, the 4th wave is often a triangle or "zigzag" (a triangle pattern that retraces much less of wave 3 than wave 2 did of wave 1). A rule of thumb is 38%. Finally we get wave 5, which is often equal to wave 1, but often also less (0.618x). /5
Let's apply this to the bitcoin chart. So far it looks like wave 1 down was from 64,870 to 47,079 for 11,791 points. Wave 2 went up to 59,588, which is a 70% retracement of wave 1. Wave 3 was an impulsive 29,571 points down to 30,017, which equates to 1.66x wave 1. /6
So far the recovery from the wave 3 low looks like a 4th wave zigzag retracing 37% of wave 3. In other words, everything about this wave pattern so far appears to be textbook, which suggests that a wave 5 decline could still lie ahead. /7
If wave 5 = wave 1, it projects down to 23,076 as a final low. If it's only 0.618x wave 1, we may only slightly undercut the current low and bottom at 29,872. So to me that’s the range of outcomes for a potential 5th wave sequence. /8
Here is the chart. In the bottom panel I show a series from Glassnode, which shows the percentage of positions held less than 3 months. To me, that’s one indication of where the short-term momentum traders may be at. /9
All this is just a hunch of course (& one of the pitfalls of EWT is that everything looks like one thing until it doesn’t). What would negate the 5 wave sequence? A sustained rally above 41k should do it, in which case we could think of the current retest as a “failed 5th.” /10
Here is a longer view of the Glassnode series. To me, it looks like short-term traders have not capitulated enough. The chart shows that the low end of the range for short-term positions is around 17%. Meanwhile, the percentage of HODLers (> 10 years) is growing steadily. /11
FWIW, my hunch is that the low will be closer to 30k than 23k, per the head & shoulders price target below. The distance from the head to the neckline was 17k, which measured from the neckline is 30k. Technical Analysis 101 says that this is the minimum target of a H&S top. /12
Finally, an analog to the BTC correction is the correction in meme stocks (lagged by a month). This also suggests that there could be one more down-leg before we see a sustained recovery (although the GS retail favorites index does not show a discernable 5 wave pattern). /13
Don’t get me wrong: I remain a secular bull, but according to my version of the S2F model & S-Curve model (& the analog of gold during the 1970s), the trip to 64k was a bit too much too fast, prematurely reaching my year-end target of 68k in April. /14
Bull markets are more sustainable when the tree gets occasionally shaken, and my best guess is that this is what we are seeing now. (END)

More from Crypto

1/ A thread on Nexgen’s Arrow & the #uranium cycle ($NXE)


2/ Given the scale and cost structure of Arrow, it makes sense that investors are intensely focused on its delivery timeline. This thread will discuss possible timelines, current market expectations (i.e., what’s “priced in”) & how different Arrow scenarios will impact the mkt.

3/ As you can see from the litany of responses to Michael’s tweet, there is great skepticism in the market regarding Arrow’s timeline. This is largely due to a bearish narrative conveyed by competing CEO’s whose assets only hold value if Arrow is substantially delayed.

4/ Those who played “King of the Hill” as a child would remember that it is the person at the top who is constantly attacked, not the kid sitting at the bottom of the hill in the mud. No one cares enough about that kid to attack them. This is a good parable for $NXE & Uranium.

5/ First a quick note on “this cycle” – Segra generally defines this cycle as the deficits forecasted from the mid-2020s to late-2030s. When people imply an asset producing in the mid-to-late 2020s will “miss the cycle”, they clearly have not done any real S/D modelling.

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THE MEANING, SIGNIFICANCE AND HISTORY OF SWASTIK

The Swastik is a geometrical figure and an ancient religious icon. Swastik has been Sanatan Dharma’s symbol of auspiciousness – mangalya since time immemorial.


The name swastika comes from Sanskrit (Devanagari: स्वस्तिक, pronounced: swastik) &denotes “conducive to wellbeing or auspicious”.
The word Swastik has a definite etymological origin in Sanskrit. It is derived from the roots su – meaning “well or auspicious” & as meaning “being”.


"सु अस्ति येन तत स्वस्तिकं"
Swastik is de symbol through which everything auspicios occurs

Scholars believe word’s origin in Vedas,known as Swasti mantra;

"🕉स्वस्ति ना इन्द्रो वृधश्रवाहा
स्वस्ति ना पूषा विश्ववेदाहा
स्वस्तिनास्तरक्ष्यो अरिश्तनेमिही
स्वस्तिनो बृहस्पतिर्दधातु"


It translates to," O famed Indra, redeem us. O Pusha, the beholder of all knowledge, redeem us. Redeem us O Garudji, of limitless speed and O Bruhaspati, redeem us".

SWASTIK’s COSMIC ORIGIN

The Swastika represents the living creation in the whole Cosmos.


Hindu astronomers divide the ecliptic circle of cosmos in 27 divisions called
https://t.co/sLeuV1R2eQ this manner a cross forms in 4 directions in the celestial sky. At centre of this cross is Dhruva(Polestar). In a line from Dhruva, the stars known as Saptarishi can be observed.