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Venkatesh Rao
@vgr 4 years, 5 months ago 982 views

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stacks are eating the world

business used to be easiest to comprehend via a) market-based logic of horizontal vs. vertical STRUCTURE, b) professionalization/specialization based FUNCTION c) core competencies based BEHAVIORS

this has pretty much collapsed in the last decade

Structure = sclerosis
Functional specialization = bureaucracy
competencies = inertial habits

"Stack" thinking instead lets technology structure (rather than market structure) drive business org logic

Companies seem to do well when they identify an entire stack of technologies they are good at (not just point bits) and organize to conform to its logic. There is a "full-stack" dimension of technical specialization that is the spine of the org

It feels buzzwordy, but it really is getting to be that way. AI stack, decarbonization stack, mobility stack, electrification stack... some end-to-end pathway of turning physics into economics via layers of tech artistically baked together like a cake

If you haven't seen enough examples to instinctively pattern-match what I'm talking about, think of a stack as somewhere between an industry sector like "aerospace" and a functional specialization like "marketing."

Is the drone industry part of aerospace? Yes and no... there's an aerospace renaissance on to be sure, and some of it overlaps with the old kind and with lots of FAA regulations and such, but really what we have is a "new aerospace stack"

covers the tech needed to build useful end-to-end capabilities for everything from delivery drones to surveillance to disaster relief search-and-rescue to even indoor toys/games/robotic assistance... yes, bits of it look like boeing, but lots of it do not...

Here there is a 1:1 correspondence. Old aerospace is retreating to high-end/high-cost "platform" organization. In other cases, it's entirely new. There's a "sidewalk stack" for example (scooters, bike rentals, hoverboards, delivery robots, inspection robots)

I'd probably call that the "smart sidewalk" stack or "low-power urban mobility stack" ... currently a half-baked cake of technologies that impact many current and potential markets and businesses/orgs

More from Venkatesh Rao

Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

There are only 3 real challenges to free speech at the tech level a) the need for CDNs at scale b) distortions of net neutrality c) nation-state firewalls.

All other claims are about social governance on private sites, where applying free speech doctrine is a stretch at best

Baseline free speech has expanded modestly since 1776 or whatever your reference point is.

About 20% beyond core case of government-critical speech in formally public spaces and media I'd say.

You can (for example) have more kinds of conversations in a bar without getting punched or kicked out by other patrons or management. You can teach more things in colleges than 100 years ago.

That's a genuine de facto increase in practical, informal free speech/expression.

But online free "speech" is, as @reneed has pointed out, not an expansion of free speech at all, but an expansion of reach. It is like the secondary freedom of the press to print as many copies as they can afford, not primary freedom to say what they want

If a newspaper wants to print more copies it has buy more printing equipment and front more upfront costs. Reach for a paper publication is not "free", but a function of desired circulation, which in turn is a function of demand prediction etc. But that logic is obscured online.

Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

I’m guessing these responses really reflect people’s weighted averages (age*current average effort fraction) though I kept it simple and asked for just averages.

Poll: where is the temporal center of gravity of all your live projects based on average age of start-dates?
— Venkatesh Rao (@vgr) January 17, 2021

I suspect a healthy weighted average should be ~ (age-20)/2. So a 30 year old should be at 5, a 40 year old at 10, a 50 year old at 15 etc.

Standard deviation should be ~average/3 maybe, so distribution spreads as you age and accumulate projects and get better at them.

Other things being equal, people get good at starting in their 20s, at follow through in 30s, at finishing in 40s.

No point learning food follow through until you’ve found a few good starts to bet on. No point getting good at finishing until a few projects have aged gracefully.

I’m in the 7+ range myself. Probably 8-9. Slightly less than healthy for my age.

I suspect most self-judgments on being good starters/follow-through-ers/finishers are really flawed because of the non-ergodicity of project management skill learning. You can’t learn good practices for the 3 phases in an arbitrary order. On,y one order actually works.

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Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Reading my own old writing from 10+ years ago is rarely pleasant. It’s not that the ideas and techniques are worse/embarrassing by current tastes (though they often are), but that they have a brash energy I can’t vibe with anymore even where I can still stand by the content.

Most of that energy is not mine from a younger mindset personally (though there’s some of that) but a function of the era. 2010 generally had more of a brash energy going. An energy born of a widespread sense of the world making more sense and humans being more agenty within it.

2007-13: Brash energy. The GFC bloodied our noses but we still felt in control of the plot collectively.

2014-20: Angry-anxious energy. Everybody lost the plot. Winners and losers alike. Great Weirding.

2021 - : Mellow sadder-and-wiser energy on macro, brrr energy on micro.

Opening mood for 2021 feels like how a figure skater spins faster by pulling in tighter. Narrower horizons, more concentrated energy, easy to mistake conservation of momentum effects for an absolute increase in system energy. Shows up in everything from stocks to writing.

Its tempting to retreat to narrow horizons with primarily happy domestic cozy energy (these are really good times for anything that taps into domestic-scale psyche energy). But even the happiest broader thoughts are alloyed with that mellow sadder-wiser plotlessness.

Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

social media use really calls for something closer to a driver's license than terms of service... most apparent bad behavior here is more incompetence than malice, like not knowing how to change lanes or take turns at a 4-way stop..

trump's history on twitter is something closer to a crazy car chase on LA streets than bad driving (with the cops MIA, but media helicopters in pursuit), but almost all unpleasantness around here is just poor driving skills

not that I'm advocating for a licensing regime... that would be a terrible thing. Do not need a social media DMV. But the underlying principles (as tested for eg. in the written and road tests) are pretty good.

Written test would test things like "safe following distance" (reply-guying = tailgating?)

Road test would actually expose you to routine provocations. Like, "make a left turn" = "deal with this concern troll"

As in the driving test, where an awkward, unnatural, and unintuitive bit, the parallel parking test, is the toughest bit, there would be some such awkward maneuver you'd have to learn (hmmm... what's the parallel parking equivalent on twitter?)

Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Heh, one thing the nyt piece managed was to do a Cunningham's law nerdsnipe-wmd at newspaper scale... now a bunch of people are energetically trying to post the right answer.

One other thing I should really clarify and that the @nytimes piece got *severely* wrong: while I believe there are very strong sociological and even causal links between rationalism and NRx (especially in the Silicon Valley homes bases) their ideological and methodological
— (((E. Glen Weyl))) (@glenweyl) February 14, 2021

IMO trying to correct whatever the NYT writer thought he knew/understood is futile. "Willing to be misunderstood by the NYT" should be the default stance unless you want to waste a lot of time correcting an obsolete 2013 map for people who don't care.

The thing is, the NYT still has enough normative cultural power, even as it has fallen from newspaper-of-record, that it takes a particular sort of heretical self-confidence to sort of ignore whatever they happen to be wrong about on any given week, whether or not it concerns you

A subtle shift has occurred in the workings of the Gell-Mann amnesia effect. It used to be an individual private amnesia re: media ("I'll believe myself when I am certain they got it wrong because I'm an expert, but still believe them when I am not"). Now it's a collective effect

A sort of common-knowledge threshold has been crossed lately. "Everybody knows that everybody knows the NYT is wrong on X across largish subcultures." It's no longer mutual beliefs being validated occasionally 1:1.

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D.I.Y Investing
@vajolleratzii

Prepare For The Biggest Bull Run In Crypto EVER.

I made some charts explaining the long term trend of #Ethereum and how identical it is to the early #Bitcoin cycles.

It's very obvious what's happening and has been in the charts for months.

I call this pattern the, "4 Year Bowl."

New years are a time of market shifts both bullish and bearish. Each cycle goes through 4 years of this rounded accumulation pattern. After year 4 we start 1 year of parabolic rise.

When you take a look at the same principle with the last #Bitcoin cycle you get almost the exact same outcome. Only difference is Bitcoin usually tops at the first of December and not January.

The 4 Year Bowl is identical with Ethereum and Bitcoin

When you lay them side by side you get a pretty insane correlation. The fact $ETH accumulated for 2 years at that range low makes me feel as if the parabolic rise will happen faster than everyone thought.

Look how identical it is to the last $BTC cycle. Who could argue against?

S/O to @BobLoukas for teaching me how cycles work. I was one of the first members on @BitcoinLive1 and Bob was the only person I listened to. True Legend.

So... How does "4 Year Cycle Theory" work?

Measure from peak low to peak low. Each cycle equals 4 years in distance.

Willy Woo
@woonomic

Let me indulge in a story...

Once upon a time there was a genius called Satoshi, this anonymous character laid down a block, it was called the Genius Block, but we we spell it wrong to this day.

Then along came your standard noob who believed in freedom, we know this because he went by the name NewLibertyStandard.

He created a site to buy and sell Bitcoins.

On his site, he priced Bitcoin on electricity.

The price went up, the price went down.

Then one day, he changed the pricing system.

BTC was no longer priced at the cost of mining.

He priced it by DEMAND and SUPPLY.

Geeks and legendary futurists, bought and sold the rarest commodity on the Internet for pennies.

Price teleported upwards.

Then came a Magic The Gathering gamer. He smashed together a shaky piece of software called Magic The Gathering Exchange.

It became the first widely used BTC exchange.

The whole world sent this kid money to buy BTC.

A new market had unlocked. Price teleported.

Let's fast forward 6 glorious years of price teleportation events.

Many of the story details remain unknown to me, though I see their impact on the blockchain.

But let me bring you to the year 2017 and save you lots of reading...

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$Emperor\U0001f451$

Emperor👑
@EmperorBTC

Go to 1-4 hour chart.

Use the following EMAs.
13,21,50,180.

Look for a period of consolidation and
13>21>50>180.

Wait for a pull back to 13EMA.
If bounce occurs with volume, Enter.

Exit on bearish cross with 21>13.

Matti
@mattigags

0/ The Great Crypto Reversal

Key difference between the '17 and roaring 20s in crypto is that back then everyone was aping a16z and Naval.

Today everyone apes 3AC wanting to be the next Degen.

'17 was an idealistic *saving the world* kind of thing
20s is *me against the world*

1/ The financialization of crypto means more volatility but pretty long ascend to the top.

Multi-year bull and an ATH surprising even to the biggest bulls as the infinite Cantillon "wealth" is pumped into crypto

Crypto becomes the ultimate Cantillon insider circle-jerk.

2/ This will be one the most iconic ideological reversals in history, comparable to Google who was firmly against advertising but turned into the most powerful ad company ever.

3/ This scenario reminds me of the 90s privatization period in the post-socialist countries.

The regime transition allowed the communist party elite to benefit from the wild west form of "capitalism" that ensued, transferring (and multiplying) their wealth into the new regime.

4/ We are far from Satoshi's original vision . But words and intentions of *prophets* were used to manipulate and corrupt all throughout human history and this time it is no

At "forever" Cantillon insiders are infinitely wealthy. Everybody else lives in pods & eats what the livestock eats, or joins the harem or household staff of an infinitaire.
— Nick Szabo (@NickSzabo4) January 21, 2020

Patrick O'Grady
@_patrickogrady

0/ Yesterday was my last day as the Rosetta Technical Lead at @coinbase. Starting tomorrow (crypto never sleeps, right?), I’ll join @el33th4xor, @kevinsekniqi, and the rest of the talented team at @avalabsofficial in building @avalancheavax.

1/ When I joined Coinbase out of college, I thought I “knew” blockchain. Boy was I wrong! Standardizing and scaling asset addition at Coinbase while collaborating with the top blockchain engineers at the top projects by market cap flipped my world upside down.

2/ I don’t think there is any other place that ramps you up into the magical moon math of crypto as fast as @coinbase and I firmly believe it is the best place for any crypto engineer to start their career. Good news! They're hiring!

3/ To all my former coworkers, I want to say thank you for everything you’ve taught me. I’ll never forget all the time and energy you spent helping me become a better engineer and a better person. I have no doubt that you’ll continue pushing Rosetta forward for years to come.

4/ For the next few months, I’ll remain an advisor to the Rosetta project. I will lend a hand to asset issuers implementing Rosetta for the first time and chime in on high-level design decisions.

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Your Most PRECIOUS Currencies:

-Energy

-Time

-Attention

-Trust

-Love

-Loyalty

-Respect

Only give these currencies to high value people. Never spend these currencies on low value shitheads eg: trolls, weasels, snakes, naysayers etc.

'Wait, I thought money was the most important currency?'

Nah.

Once you adopt abundance mentality, you realize their is no shortage of money.

Making the dollars your most important currency will have you leading an empty life.

Time to flip your perspective.

👇

▪Energy

When you strip yourself to the core, you are an emotional creature.

Emotions are your internal worlds energy.

Harnessing that energy is crucial for leveraging yourself to obtain whatever you want.

You have a finite amount everyday, so spend it wisely.

▪Time

A second that is lost will never be returned.

You start valuing the hell out of this currency the more you mature.

As the years start adding up, you realize time is precious.

You must always have a scarcity mindset towards time.

Once you do so, you will not be lazy.

▪Attention

You can be here, but not present.

Attention is completely mental.

Giving someone your attention means you are clearing up mental bandwidth to make room for them.

Only give your attention to people who help you grow.

For the negative ones?

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#Thread Two divine forms of Khatu Shyam ji...

On the day of Amavasya, devotees get the darshan of Shyam Baba in Shyam varan (black color). In ordinary days, the form of Baba is saffron. The reason for this is a custom. The real head of Shyam Baba which had appeared from Shyam Kund is of Shyam varan.

Every day Shyam Baba's grand Shringar is done by Pujaris. The main part of Shyam Baba's shringar is Tilak. This Shringar is done by the members of Nij Mandir sevaks. The sevaks of the Nij Mandir do sandalwood tilak to Baba everyday in the auspicious time.

This Divine Tilak is applied from the forehead to the nose. When Baba is given a bath by sevaks, this tilak comes off. Then in the auspicious time, the sevaks again apply tilak to Baba.

There is no auspicious time on the Amavasya. Because of this, tilak is not done on that day. That's why devotees have darshan of Shyam Baba on the Amavasya only in the actual real form (Shyam Swaroop). Baba's tilak is done on Amavasya only on the day of Deepawali.

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Billy Bostickson 🏴👁&👁 ...
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Tip from the Monkey
Pangolins, September 2019 and PLA are the key to this mystery
Stay Tuned!

Meet Yang Ruifu, CCP's biological weapons expert https://t.co/JjB9TLEO95 via @Gnews202064
Interesting expose of China's top bioweapons expert who oversaw fake pangolin research
Paper 1: https://t.co/TrXESKLYmJ
Paper 2:https://t.co/9LSJTNCn3l
Pangolinhttps://t.co/2FUAzWyOcv pic.twitter.com/I2QMXgnkBJ
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2. A jacobin capuchin dangling a flagellin pangolin on a javelin while playing a mandolin and strangling a mannequin on a paladin's palanquin, said Saladin
More to come tomorrow!

3. Yigang Tong
https://t.co/CYtqYorhzH
Archived: https://t.co/ncz5ruwE2W

4. YT Interview
Some bats & pangolins carry viruses related with SARS-CoV-2, found in SE Asia and in Yunnan, & the pangolins carrying SARS-CoV-2 related viruses were smuggled from SE Asia, so there is a possibility that SARS-CoV-2 were coming from

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LACHIT BORPHUKAN : AN UNSUNG WARRIOR OF THE AHOM KINGDOM & THE GREAT BATTLE OF SARAIGHAT

Originally named as Lachit Deca, Lachit Borphukan, the fierce and invincible Ahom Commander, was born during the early 17th century at Betioni in the Golaghat district of modern Assam.

His father, Momai Tamuli Borbarua was the ‘Governor’ of the kingdom and also ‘Commander-in-Chief’ of Ahom army under King Pratap Singha during his reign starting from 1603 to 1639. Lachit received military training from an early age and joined the Ahom King Jayadhvaj Singha...

...(1648-1663) as a scarf-bearer. The post ‘scarf-bearer’ or ‘Soladhara Barua’ is considered as a part of the incumbent king’s personal staff. Owing to his military training Lechit was appointed "Ghora Barua", Supdt. of the Royal horses. When Chakradhwaj Singha became king..

..of Ahom dynasty in 1663,he appointed him Suptd. of The Royal Guards &finally he was appointed as Borphukan by the king.Then onwards,he was known as Lachit Borphukan.Borphukan used to be top councillor in Ahom Kingdom. This position was embedded with executive & judicial powers.

Assam was facing incessant Islamic invasion since Jan1662, when Mughal General Mir Jumla II attacked Ahom capital Gargaon. He never defeated Ahom king Jayadhwaja Singha as king retreated to hill &continued Guerrilla warfare.Prolonged fight &prospect of stalemate disturbed Jumla.

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Thuravoor Narasimha Swamy Temple
Alappuzha, Kerala
#KeralaTemples 🚩

Thuravoor Narasimha Swamy or Thuravoor Mahakshetram is situated in Alappuzha with Narasimha Swamy and Sudharshana Moorthy as main Prathishta.
Temple has separate Sannidhi for Vadakkanappan ( Narasimha) and 👇

Tekkanappan ( Sudarshana).

Sthala puranam says that Vigraham of Narasimha was brought from Varanasi. Swami Padmapadar, shishya of Adi Sankaracharya, had worshipped the same Vigraham at Kashi.
A Namboodiri, on his way to Kashi saw a powerful light which disappeared here 👇

Namboodiri dug the place and he found a beautiful beautiful Vigraham made of Anjanasila. It is said that the vigraham occupied a site, which was the place of Durga Devi
Sudarshana Moorthy is about 6 Ft, Chaturbahu. Deepavali is famous festival here.
Om Narasimha Swamine Namah
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