BC BREXIT
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So here it is. After the euphoria, the @FinancialTimes @FTMag long read of how @BorisJohnson did his Trade deal with the EU. Tl:dr...not so much “build back better”, more “build back the borders” - stay with me/1.

 @FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson The really under-appreciated part of this story is the extent to which the Johnson government, having won its 80 seat majority promising to "Get Brexit Done" then explicitly and actively chose the hardest possible version of #brexit in defiance of commercial interests /2
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson Our story begins in January last year when David Frost commenced what Whitehall insiders call a "Star Chamber" process to strip away anything that might be considered more than a "Canada-style" deal - regardless of the fact that UK doesn't trade with EU like Canada! /3
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson So what did that mean in practice?

Well, for example leaving EU aviation safety agency (EASA); Chemicals agency (ECHA), not getting a waiver of 'safety and security' declarations for hauliers, not seeking special arrangements for animal products...on and on it goes /4
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson Didn't industry object? Well yes it did - but those who yelled too hard found themselves shut out of the door.

Did Whitehall object? Yes it did - Defra and Beis and Treasury all tried at some level to temper the revolutionary fury. But mostly failed. /5
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson I recall reporting at the time that the haulage industry just couldn't believe, given 10,000 trucks a day crossed the Channel, that the UK gov wouldn't want a waiver on Safety & Security decs....a waiver Norway and Switzerland have. But no. Only Canada./6
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson Some did belly-ache. I recall this amazing letter from @PauleverittADS about the government's promise to consult over EASA membership...and then announcing it had decided anyway. Objections were just batted away.... /7

https://t.co/DE5wV3HNH6
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS As @GeorgeWParker - brilliant steward of this piece - reported back in January 2020, industries were told they were in "secular decline" - and who could forget @afneil telling @MakeUK_ conference that No.10 thought 3D printing was the answer /8

https://t.co/kYX7jOn8n9
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ To be fair, no secret was made of this - @DavidGHFrost went to Brussels and gave a speech in which he said industry was exaggerating...the next few years will show whether he was right. Doesn't feel that way to fishermen like Ian Perkes./9

https://t.co/1kLxFovh1U
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost I should add a side-note here on services, which where already pretty much forsaken because of ending free movement - but the City knew that battle was lost. One exec observes Tory party is "controlled by ideologues" that put sovereignty over the economy. /10
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost The brutal paring back of ambition created an unprecedented inversion of what trade talks are about - growing trade.

So that 'success' defined by @BorisJohnson's own terms - landing a Canada-style deal - meant the constriction of trade. We slipped through the looking glass./11
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost It is true that the 'deal' is better than a 'no deal' would have been, but this was a barebones deal that was done with heads deliberately stuck in the sand. Damage assessments were not done. “Someone would occasionally proposedoing the work and everyone would say: ‘No.’”

Wow/12
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost I wonder if any company CEO, or headteacher, or hospital administrator or bus driver or cafe owner proceeded on this basis...how long would they keep their job before being struck off, or suffering a shareholder revolt, or going bust? Could you do it in a normal walk of life? /13
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost The negotiation itself was successful on its own terms - the UK did indeed get a skinny deal, walking into the 'elephant trap' that Sir Ivan Rogers had set out in Christmas 2019 - and neatly summarised here by @AntonSpisak

https://t.co/vH7H8p44zZ
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost @AntonSpisak When the endgame came - wonderfully reported by my Brussels colleagues @jimbrunsden @Sam1Fleming - the UK gave up even on the 'extras' it had asked for on professional services and 'cross-cumulation of rules of origin' for carmakers.../14

https://t.co/fNX50cPPKu
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost @AntonSpisak @jimbrunsden @Sam1Fleming As time wore on, the UK deployed its 'madman' strategy - not even @BorisJohnson knew if he'd go for deal or no deal - and there were times when there was so little strategy you wondered if that was actually true. I never spoke to EU folk who believed he'd do no deal fwiw /15
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost @AntonSpisak @jimbrunsden @Sam1Fleming There was that small matter of the threat to break international law...which UK negotiators believed shook things up, but on EU side, only seemed to push Berlin behind Paris in demanding tough 'ratchet clauses' etc. And damaged our world standing /16

https://t.co/o88fnMkQKy
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost @AntonSpisak @jimbrunsden @Sam1Fleming But @BorisJohnson got his deal, barebones as intended - and then told everyone that it contained no "no non-tariff barriers to trade" - and that wasn't an off-the-cuff remark. Watch the tape at 7m.29s, he's reading a text /17
https://t.co/FPP3IgFHLH
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost @AntonSpisak @jimbrunsden @Sam1Fleming That means that someone in No.10 actually wrote that down. They put it into an approved text when they must have known it not to be true. Perhaps @BorisJohnson wrote it himself, but that really is an alternative fact.

Odd to be so proud of a Canada deal, then disown it. /18
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost @AntonSpisak @jimbrunsden @Sam1Fleming And so what about the future? Yes, we'll suffer some frictions burns at the border now, but that will open the door to a sea of opportunity etc... @ColdChainShane says trade will be "slower, more expensive and
less flexible"...but the upside seems less clear. /19
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost @AntonSpisak @jimbrunsden @Sam1Fleming @ColdChainShane Still. What's done is done...what it will mean for the future - politically and economically - is still very unclear. At some level, the architects of this deal must know - amongst all the cries of freedom etc - they've created a lot of burdens for a lot of people. Now what? ENDS

More from Peter Foster

Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
It's OUT! My latest #Brexit Briefing for @FinancialTimes - examining @BorisJohnson
"buy now, pay later" Northern Ireland Protocol, why the EU-UK trust deficit is killing it, how that can be restored - because it needs to work. /1

@BorisJohnson The danger here is that lingering animus over the opportunistic nature Johnson's Faustian bargain - dividing his Kingdom in order to 'get #Brexit done' and win an 80-seat majority - is clouding judgement on both sides of the Channel /2

@BorisJohnson The facts of the Protocol are no less true for Johnson's constant denial of them - that there would be checks, that there really is a trade border that now prevents plants and pets from travelling freely from Bedford to Ballymena as M.Gove reminds us. But these are other facts/3

@BorisJohnson Firstly, NI remains part of UK, even if it is now has EU customs rules.

Secondly, NI remains politically divided and fragile; the Good Friday Agreement is a constant work in progress.

Thirdly, both the EU and the UK agreed to this unsatisfactory arrangement jointly. /4

@BorisJohnson Fourthly, therefore, they have a joint responsibility to make it work because

Fifthly - and most importantly — there is no alternative to it. /5
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
NEW. 🚨🚨🚛🇬🇧🙄🚛🚚🚨🚨 clear signs govt is preparing for coming #brexit turbulence - consulting on new fast-track scheme for food lorries returning to Europe /1



The idea is that 300 lorries a day will be granted 'fast track' permits so they can go back EU and replenish supplies...this is because (see below) the gov fears that potential for disruption is "high" /2


The 8-page consultation document notes this is both because of #Brexit but also because of #COVID19 and continued French insistence on checks on all drivers from UK. /3

Lots arriving in Kent without clear tests SO separately Dept for Transport is considering £150 fines for drivers that don't have clean tests before entering Kent - problem, say hauliers, is that this requires communicating with EU-based drivers (85% from EU) /4

The govt is worried that disruptions will risk the kind of panic-buying we saw in early #COVID19 pandemic /5
GOVERNMENT
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Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
BREAK: The UK drops all its 'law breaking' clauses - including plans for more in forthcoming taxation bill - after @michaelgove
and @MarosSefcovic agree deal on terms of implementing Northern Irish Protocol. 1/

https://t.co/MdBbcI8vjd


@MarosSefcovic This is obviously very good news - recalling that it relates to the implementation of last autumn's deal to allow #Brexit to happen without returning a trade border to island of Ireland...but leaving one in the Irish Sea. /2

@MarosSefcovic The statement says that the two sides have determined "criteria for goods to be considered 'not at risk' of entering the EU" - though the extent to which goods pay tariffs UK-EU will depend on whether we get an FTA with the EU. (Even if we do, some still will) /3

@MarosSefcovic The two sides have also agreed on the 'reachback' of Article 10 or the "application of State aid under the terms of the Protocol" which the UK govt feared could be used to constrain UK govt subsidy decisions after January 1 /4

@MarosSefcovic This was because EU state aid law applied to UK in respect of NI Goods - so risk of 'catching' a UK decision to, say, give a bank a tax break if it had NI Clients...thereby blowing hole in @BorisJohnson 'sovereign' Brexit. An understanding has been reached here. /5
TAXATION BILL
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇮🇪🚚🚚🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨

As #brexit talks drift towards the rocks, trade groups say plans for Irish Sea trade border after Brexit are ‘in a mess’ via, my latest via @FT ...this is an issue coming deal or no deal. Stay with me 1/


So to recap, under Northern Ireland protocol negotiated in the Withdrawal Agreement all goods going from Great Britain to NI must confirm with EU customs code. To avoid new border in Ireland, that means trade border in Irish Sea - new paperwork, new systems. Operational Jan 1/2

The problem is that because the FTA negotiations are stuck, the negotiations in the Joint Committee on how to implement the Protoocl (and @michaelgove is with @MarosSefcovic talking today) haven't yet born fruit. That means a LOT of uncertainty. /3

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic How much uncertainty? Well, as @MichaelAodhan tells me, a lot. Research by the Northern Ireland Business Brexit Working Group (NIBBWG) found only 20% of members were ready. And its not their fault: need info on tarifs, computer systems etc. And are not getting answers /3


@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan Now. The Government has earmarked £200m for the Trade Support Service run by Fujitsu and the Customs Clearance Consortium with @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 to help business process new paperwork...BUT even it cannot answer lots of Qs, and won't help with animal/SPS issues. /4
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Another head-banging day for the £112bn UK creative sector that is starting to ingest how difficult #Brexit is going to make their lives - and how little the government is really willing to do to fix the lack of a 'mobility' chapter in the EU-UK trade deal. Quick update.../1

First Equity @EquityUK put out a letter to @BorisJohnson warning that #brexit was a "towering hurdle" (you'd want Brian Blessed reading that part) to UK actors plying their trade in EU - a double whammy with #COVID19 /2

https://t.co/mXjTAISqZk


@BorisJohnson One third of Equity members say they've seen job ads asking for EU passport holders: "Before, we were able to travel to Europe visa-free. Now we have to pay hundreds of pounds, fill in form after form, and spend weeks waiting for approval" /3

@BorisJohnson Worth recalling that all this goes back to the UK desire NOT to have a 'mobility' provision within the TCA - all part of 'ending Free Movement' and the professional services folk - including musicians, actors, fashion models etc -are all victim of

@BorisJohnson What's the government going to do about all this? Good question, which brings us to todays @CommonsDCMS hearing in which the Culture Minister Caroline Dinenage @cj_dinenage frankly pin-balled around the issues /5
BREXIT

More from Brexit

Daniel Lambert (Wines). \U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa\U0001f1eb\U0001f1f7\U0001f3f4\U000e0067\U000e0062\U000e0077\U000e006c\U000e0073\U000e007f\U0001f347\U0001f942
Daniel Lambert (Wines)...
@DanielLambert29
Over the past 15 days I have not only been running my company as normal but I have been faced with largest threat to its future since it began in 1992. This is #Brexit & here is my thread on just how bad things are getting. 1/26

Six months ago my business started to prepare for Brexit. We obtained the following licences and accreditations JUST to maintain the status quo. EORI number, RORO badge for Chief, GBRC number, GBWK number, we already had ARWS and DAN accounts. 2/26

All of this took nearly five months a lot of form filling but on the 9th December this was all in place. So I would say whilst we knew Brexit would be a car crash we did not know it was going to be a multiple pile up in the fog with fatalities. 3/26

On January 4th I returned to work being wise enough to have stockpiled just enough so that if we had a bumpy ride in January we would have enough stock to last until February. 4/26

I should add this took a considerable amount of cash flow and management to do this during a lockdown/ pandemic combined with Xmas sales. But we managed. 5/26
BREXIT
Andrew Levi
Andrew Levi
@AndrewPRLevi
Brexit. A Eurovision Negotiating Contest. How are the contestants doing? To read the UK press you’d be forgiven for being ... completely misinformed. We’re lurching into a crisis on a scale not seen since at least 1956 & probably 1945. Here’s what’s really going on. A thread./1.

For a number of key journalists, their only job is to take dictation from the 10 Downing Street spokesman & give it to the Times, Telegraph or Spectator for publishing. This is part of a therapy effort for the small minority of the population who read those publications & .../2.

... would otherwise be confused by being confronted with the reality of the world around them. The articles are interesting for two reasons:

⁃They tell you precisely what 10 Downing Street currently wants those readers, which include other journalists, to hear. /3.

⁃Looking at their detailed content, such as it is, shows just how possible a “deal” quite obviously is & how nonsensical a “no deal” would be. They also (if you’re familiar with a bit of background, which you surely are) highlight just how bad a “deal” of the sort .../4.

... the government envisages - a massive climb down from the UK’s extraordinarily privileged position in the EU’s customs union & single market - would be for the UK. And how a “no deal” would be even worse - substantially so - than such a (really awful) “deal”. /5.
BREXIT
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Anton Spisak
Anton Spisak
@AntonSpisak
Amid all the announcements today, it's easy to overlook that the OBR has updated its scenario on a no-deal Brexit. It exposes an undeniably hard reality for the Govt that claims that the UK would "prosper mightily" under no-deal next year.

(Short thread)

1. Key chart: a no-deal/WTO/Australia-style Brexit would delay the point at which econ output regains its pre-virus peak by "almost a year to the third quarter of 2023."

In the upside scenario, this cross-over point could be at the start of 2022; in the downside, in 2025. Grim.


2. Next year, a no deal Brexit would reduce real GDP by around a further 2% - as a result of immediate disruption to the border and uncertainty facing businesses. That's on top of the Covid-related contraction.


3. While there's some short-term border disruption, most of the costs come in the medium term: from lost employment; productivity losses; lower business investment.

Exactly the opposite of what the Chancellor said to @AndrewMarr9 on Sunday.

4. Underneath these numbers, output would fall *below* the Covid levels for several key sectors: Manufacturing, professional services, financial services, retail, energy.

All trade intensive sectors that have been spared the same drop in output as the non-tradables this year.
BREXIT
Buck Frexit! \U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa\U0001f49c\U0001f499\U0001f30d #FBPE #ElectoralReform
Buck Frexit! 🇪🇺💜💙🌍 #FB...
@Beany_1
Project fear - a media friendly term which at one stroke, mocked the expertise of those at many of the coal faces of Brexit and dismissed it with a sneer. Yet, just 9 days in, it looks very much like project fear predictions were true and should have been heeded.

Thread

Project fear was not a myth. It was the truth.


Project fear was not a myth. It was the truth.


Project fear was not a myth. It was the truth.


Project fear was not a myth. It was the truth.
BREXIT
Anand Menon
Anand Menon
@anandMenon1
IT’S HERE The new bumper @ukandeu report that tells you all you need to know – or at least all the questions you need to ask – about the UK after Brexit. https://t.co/S1lHP6TBJ1 1/27


A disclaimer. What follows is a selection of randomly selected highlights, nothing more nothing less. There’s far, far more in this report than I can possibly cover here. And the cricket got exciting so I ran out of steam. 2/27

It is made up of 70-odd pieces (I counted twice and came up with diff numbers) by an eye watering collection of eminent social scientists . Explaining the big issues from housing to dealing with China, from prospects for the economy to the prospects for the Labour Party 3/27


It’s intended as a guide to the key questions that will confront us over the years to come. Each contributor ponders,where we’ve come from, where we are now and where we’re headed. And because we’re really kind, we’ve divided things up into a number of sections. First: 4/ 27


And oh, my Lord do we have a stellar line up of people, including inter alia, @_Paul_Tobin_ @tcstvns @watsonjim2 @CharlieBEU @drsarah_hall @BD_Stew @AntovaIvanka @PRT1969 @IvanRajicUK @cartelsman
Download it, tell your boss your wifi has crashed, and have a read. 5/27
BREXIT

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Panic! in the Discord
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Neo-nazi group #PatriotFront held a photo op in #Chicago last weekend & is currently marching around #DC so it's as good time as any to compile a list of their identified members for folks to watch for

Who are these chuds?

Patriot Front broke away from white nationalist org Vanguard America following #unitetheright in #charlottesville after James Alex Fields was seen with a VA shield before driving his car into a crowd, murdering Heather Heyer & injuring dozens of others

Syed Robbie Javid a.k.a. Sayed Robbie Javid or Robbie Javid of Alexandria,


Antoine Bernard Renard (a.k.a. “Charlemagne MD” on Discord) from Rockville, MD.

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Brandon Troy Higgs, 25, from Reisterstown,
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Kolaru Pathigam-Thevaram hymn composed by ThiruGnana Sambandar- #Thread

In Tamil Kol means planets,Aru means cut- set of songs in Kolaru Pathigam addresses all Navagrahas& last 2 lines of every song with end a plea to Bhagwan Shiva to reduce/erase the ill effects of Navagrahas


கோளறு பதிகம் - This pathigam was sung by Thirugnana Sambandar at Thirumaraikadu Kshetram -Vedaranyam,Tamilnadu

Thirugnana Sambandar & Appar(Thirunavukkarasar) travelled together to various Shiva Alayam to spread shivam & bhakti among people.They both reached Thirumaraikadu.


Thirumaraikadu(Vedaranyam) -
Appar & Sambandar were asked to enter the temple through side entrance.The main door was locked by Vedas many years ago.Appar&Sambandar sang devotional hymns praising Shiva, after which the gates opened & closed.After which main door opened for all.


After darshan of Bhagwan Shiva at Thirumaraikkadu,Sambandar received a message to travel to Madurai.
During that time, Samanam was on the rise in the Pandya Kingdom.The Pandya King converted to Samanam.The Queen Mangaiyarkkarasi was a staunch Shiva devotee and was upset.

Kularchirai Nayanar ,Chief Minister of Pandya kingdom was in agony by the turn of events.Queen requested Kulachirai Nayanar to escort Thiru gnana Sambandar to Madurai.Kularchirai Nayanar met Thiru gnana Sambandar at Thirumaraikkadu & requested him to visit Madurai.
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Dr. Thomas Binder, MD
Dr. Thomas Binder, MD
@Thomas_Binder
1/12

RT-PCR corona (test) scam

Symptomatic people are tested for one and only one respiratory virus. This means that other acute respiratory infections are reclassified as


2/12

It is tested exquisitely with a hypersensitive non-specific RT-PCR test / Ct >35 (>30 is nonsense, >35 is madness), without considering Ct and clinical context. This means that more acute respiratory infections are reclassified as


3/12

The Drosten RT-PCR test is fabricated in a way that each country and laboratory perform it differently at too high Ct and that the high rate of false positives increases massively due to cross-reaction with other (corona) viruses in the "flu


4/12

Even asymptomatic, previously called healthy, people are tested (en masse) in this way, although there is no epidemiologically relevant asymptomatic transmission. This means that even healthy people are declared as COVID


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Learning @ Prakash
Learning @ Prakash
@Prakashplutus
My simple Approach towards Breakout trading :

1. Scan stocks on the basis of FTDB Scanner.

2. Buy stocks with EMA-9> EMA-21> EMA-63 > EMA 200 & Volume 200% up

3. maximum SL of 1.25X ( ATR )

4. I do breakout trading only in Nifty -500 stocks

#StockMarket
#trading
#Nifty
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Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
Met a Brazilian-American Lyft driver from San Diego who passionately attacked the racism of Republicans, then switched to passionately defending Bolsonaro.

If I were Thomas Friedman, I could tell you what this means.

Met a Haitian-American in a restaurant who said he'd always vote for Democrats because of the immigration issue, but that he has conservative beliefs too. "I don't want to pay for someone's abortion!", he declared.

Met a Latino Lyft driver from San Jose who said that while he was liberal, California was getting too liberal for him and he was considering moving to San Antonio.

Again, not being Tom Friedman, I am unable to offer any commentary on the political and policy implications of these conversations.

I guess my only thought is that political opinions are pretty complex and multidimensional, out there in the real world.

(end)
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