Authors Kirubakaran Rajendran

7 days 30 days All time Recent Popular
Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
A small thread on various historical data analysis and trading strategies articles that I have shared so far. #TradingSystem #AlgoTrading 1/n
"Is long strangle strategy profitable?" https://t.co/luHnX1SGxx


"Is #Intraday trading profitable?"
Every long term investor was once a Intraday trader.

If you avoid the below three mistakes, intraday trading is definitely

"The best way to invest in #StockMarket, follow this simple rule"

Let’s consider two different scenarios,

Market crashes after your investment
Market rallies after your

Investment in #Gold is really good diversification. It helps well during bad economy period. However, instead of buying physical gold, you can invest in Gold ETF like Goldbees. Here’s the last 13 years historical analysis of Gold price

How about a trading system that gives you just two or three trades in a year, but ends up giving phenomenal returns. This is one such trading strategy with plain simple rules
GOOD READS
Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
Nifty 14500 CE trade which made day low price of 0.15 and day high price of 2139, due to erroneous order by a broker who lost 250 crores. Some ppl claim few others brokers made 50 to 75 crores profits. But what really happened? Here's the tick data analysis that shows true info🧵

Yesterday being a weekly expiry market was so calm, not making any major movements. Nifty was trading around 16500 but there was a freak trade happened with deep In the money option 14500 CE. It was trading around 2000 levels, usually the liquidity will be very shallow with ITM

it was hovering around 2000 to 2100 levels but suddenly around 2:30 pm, the price of the option went as low as 0.15 paise. Here's the tick data price chart of 14500 CE option strike


What's really interesting about this sudden move is, usually when a freak trade happens it last for few seconds and instantly get back to its average traded price levels. But in this case, there were many buy trades executed at a very low price.

Obviously this a fat finger error trade, where a broker based out of Kolkatta, erroneously placed sell order for 14500 CE instead of 16500 CE.
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Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
A small thread on Mindset of a successful trader. What differentiates best traders from the bad ones? Why 95% of the traders don’t make money? Trading is an unpredictable game, how could one win in that? 1/n


Many people think some magical strategy or indicators is all they need to be successful at Trading. But what really goes in the minds of a successful trader? Professor Hichman Benjelloun did a research on this.

Successful traders have poker face. If you talk to successful traders or chat with them, you can’t figure out if they are happy or sad. Having good time or bad time.

For them making money or losing money is same thing, as they say a good trader feels great after a good trade, but a great trader feels NOTHING after a great trade. They control their emotions not only in trading but also outside their trading life. They are highly disciplined

Whether they are making money or losing money, they continue with their daily routine, going to gym, cycling etc they don’t skip it because of a losing trade. It doesn’t affect them. They have probability mind set. What does that mean?
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Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
Whenever #Nifty & #BankNifty closes less than -1% on Fridays, what happens on Monday and what happens on next 30 days. Interesting analysis, will be sharing the details shortly.

Only 7 times in last 11 years, #IndiaVix moved more than 15% on Fridays and only 2 times Vix dropped on following Monday, rest all the time Vix increased on Monday as well.


After Friday’s Vix big move, What happens after 30 days, all 7 times the Vix went up much higher in next 30 days. So this Friday’s fall could be start of the next big volatile sessions in the coming weeks


With 25 years of data, 251 times Nifty dropped < -1% on Fridays, 58% of the time following Monday witnessed further fall, average move on such Mondays are -1.8%


This how Nifty moved in next 30 days, after the Friday fall. Market continued to slide in next 30 days as well. 58% of the time next 30 days returns turned negative.
ANALYSIS
Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
Analyzed last 12 years of historical data to check if there are any patterns we can observe to find the best time to invest in stocks for long term. #Nifty50 #investing #stocks 1/10


This is how Nifty moved in last 15 years with three major corrections, in the year 2008,then around 2016 and then year 2020 due to Coronavirus. Only when we look back with hindsight bias we could say those were the best time to invest. But is there really any quantitative method?


200 day moving average is something that is widely used by many investors to check for long term trend. Where investors consider if stocks trades above 200 DMA, its in bullish phase and if it trades below 200 DMA its in bearish phase.

We shall run an analysis to find out of Nifty 50 stocks, how many number of stocks trades above 200 day moving average, higher the number, stronger the market. we need correct data, we cannot test it with current Nifty 50 stocks,

we need list of Nifty 50 stocks that are part of index historically, so when we run for Jan 2008, stocks like RPL, RNRL, UNITECH were part of Nifty 50, so it is essential to test it with correct datasets.
TRADING
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Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
A thread on Position Sizing #Trading is the only profession where you can see Doctors, Engineers, and many other successful professionals try their luck with stock market, these people excel in their own respective field but struggle a lot when it comes to trading.1/n

Unfortunately, everybody believes that a successful trader always has a secret Technical Skill. But the truth is Technical skill is the least important factor to be a superstar trader.

Then what separates a great trader from the group of average traders? Its their emotion.


This is how most traders think: They first think about the Entry point, at which price should I buy? At which level should I enter? At which point should I get into a trade?


But this is how you must think to be a profitable trader. You have to adapt to trading strategy that suits your psychology, assign trade management rules, keep position sizing and money management rules.


One of the main reason people lose money in stock market is because of their position size. Example: Vicky starts trading with a capital of Rs. 1,00,000 and he finds a trading opportunity and buys Spice Jet share for Rs. 100. At the max, he can buy 1000 shares of Spice Jet stock.
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Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
Earlier many traders were trading based on discretionary without any rules based approach. Now a lot of traders are ready to move to algo trading but confused with a lot of options. When you are bombarded with tons of different trading systems, how do you choose the best one?

Many traders still think winning accuracy is the most important parameter in a trading system. But is it really true? Let's check this example. Consider, we have three different trading systems.
System A,
System B and
System C.


System A has 90% winning accuracy,
System B has 10% winning accuracy and
System C has 50% accuracy.
When given a choice, most traders will opt for System A as it has the highest winning accuracy of all with 90%.

But System A is not the right choice. The average profit in a winning trade is Rs.1000, that is 90% of the time System A is capable of making Rs.1000 profit. But remaining 10% of the time when the system is making a loss, it loses a lot. So after 100 trades, net result is -10,000

System B, The average profit in a winning trade is Rs.10,000, that is 10% of the time System B is capable of making Rs.10K profit, which is ten times higher than its losing trade. The average loss in a losing trade is Rs.1,000 but 90% of the time the system will continue to lose.
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Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
If you are someone who spends more time on analyzing markets during trading, then this for you. Certain traders will create their own bullish or bearish view in their mind but seek confirmation for their trades which is called as confirmation bias. #tradingpsychology 1/15


We do not like people or information that contradicts our thoughts. We like them when they confirm what we think. Hence, we tend to place more weight on information that confirms our trade position. Example- You think market is bullish & wanted to go on a long position,

Next a new bullish bar prints on the chart. You would think "Yes, my bullish proposition is still valid" (even though this bullish bar is smaller range)

A bearish bar prints. But you think "this bar lacks momentum" (because you already have firm belief that market is bullish)

One more bearish bar follows, pushing against a support level. But you would think "the support level is holding" Bullishness confirmed. Buy more! (even though this bar closed below the support level with clear momentum.)
TRADING
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Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
Most beginners when building a trading strategy simply use current info and test with it, they don't know How to Get Historical Stock Futures lot size, list of stocks that are part of index like Nifty 50, Nifty 500 historically, I will share all such info in this thread

Please note that there is no way to get the historical lot size of stocks futures, NSE don't publish it directly, so we need to do some calculated steps to get that data. Download Market Activity report https://t.co/HKLkSVtXEI


The zip file contains multiple files, open the second file.


The file will contain stock symbol, expiry date, OHLC data, along with that you get traded quantity and No of contracts traded, using this data we can calculate the lot size of every stock symbol. Simply divide Traded QTY / NO of contracts gives you the lot size.


So to get the historical stock futures data, all you need to do is change the date in the below link

https://t.co/xIBXsPpIVt For an example, to get the historical stock futures lot size data for Sep 2016, use https://t.co/Criu7S3Fi5
HISTORICAL DATA CAPTURE METHODOLOGY
Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
Over the last couple of years, I did n number of research on systematic investment methods.
What happens if I do SIP only during market corrections ?
What happens if I pick stocks based on momentum rules? Here’s small thread on Why I moved to index fund investing? 🧵

When it comes to trading most of us are busy with backtesting multiple option trading strategies with no code platforms like Stockmock Algotest etc but when it comes to investing very few charting platforms available to test long term investing methods.

I wanted to do SIP but instead of investing in mutual funds, I wanted to develop systematic approach on choosing the stocks and invest in them and rebalance them based on certain criteria.

I have written multiple articles on this topic, like how to find which is the best sector to invest?

Should you invest in 52 week high stocks or 52 week low stocks ?
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Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
Here's the last 13 years of #BudgetSession Intraday chart, lets figure out what kind of Trading strategy one can use to make use of Budget movement. This is what happened with #Nifty on intraday time frame on the budget day from year 2008 to 2021.


Year 2008, 2009


2010


2011


2012
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Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
Year 2022 has been disastrous for many asset classes, the world economy is at 40 year high inflation. Are we headed for another stock market crash? Here's a detailed analysis. 🧵


Emerging markets like SriLanka is in middle of collapse, which is facing severe depression. World Bank has predicted 70 more countries might default in coming years. With so many negative news, from equity to bitcoin every asset class facing severe sell off across the globe.

Everyone is currently talking about Inflation, rise in oil prices, Russian-Ukraine war and frequent lockdowns in China which is disrupting the supply chain. These are some of the major threats which could slowdown the world economy. But will these cause a stock market crash? No!


author of The Psychology of Money was once said

"The biggest economy risk is what no one is talking about. When no one is talking about it, no one is prepared for it. When no one is prepared for it, damage is too much."

COVID-19 no one in the world expected such a pandemic in the modern world, no one thought we would get locked down, entire world would get shut. This is mother of all surprises, no one was prepared for it.
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Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
Here's a detailed analysis of 920 Straddle with 25% SL using @stockmock_in platform. This analysis would show which days are max profitable, how it behaves on gap days and how it behaves on different VIX days. 🧵

Here's day wise total profits, Wednesday are the days it has generated highest profits compared to all other days and Friday being the least profitable day.


Here's day wise average profits, obviously Wednesday are the days it has generated highest average profits compared to all other days and Friday being the least profitable day.


Even the live profits after all charges generated through 920 straddle trading bots at https://t.co/AKj4vqky6X also reflected Fridays are not profitable when you incur all charges. Wednesday being the most profitable day. Live profits are shown here https://t.co/3hgti23lRB


Here's total profits made during gaps, when day open is greater than previous day high, Day open < Prev day low and flat days. Irrespective of gaps, its able to generate profits over all. Even the avg profits denotes the same
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Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
I have been watching movies from a very early age and I just love it. Watching a good movie makes you forget that you are actually watching a movie. Here's a master thread about reviews of all the movies I have shared in twitter so far.Trying to find a weekend movie? Here it is


https://t.co/gjTHTKyyb2


https://t.co/ZCNxllFLB0


https://t.co/uqlAlXdFga


https://t.co/wMf9Q0G6uY
MOVIES
Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
I have shared multiple information related to trading and investing through my historical data analysis by writing various articles, here's the master thread that contains all my work in one place.🧵

https://t.co/pc1jr1xBlI


https://t.co/KZJ1FKCXSp


https://t.co/pTnbkjVpr0


https://t.co/3QXmND1x6Y
THREAD
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Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
I have watched lot of movies but only few movies would change your perspective towards life, here’s the 10 movies that really changed my mindset

1.The Theory of Everything

Brilliant acting , truly mesmerising portrayal on life of Stephen Hawking, never felt bored even for a sec


2. Rush - it’s a film about F1 racer James Hunt & Nikki Lauda, excellent narration and incredible acting. The dialogues were truly masterpiece and it’s still stays in mind even after 9 years


3. The Founder - This movie released at the right time in my life, when I was about to quit my job and focus full time on my startup. This movie is all about single man Ray Kroc who built a billion dollar empire McDonalds. This is the best entrepreneurship movie ever made.


4. The Imitation Game - I watched this movie when I started my rule based trading journey in 2014, struggled a lot during my initial phase with code, unable to get any breakthrough, this film gave my that ray of hope. It’s about a mathematician who broke the code n won the war


5. The Pursuit of Happyness - any favourite Movie list would be incomplete without this movie. Will Smith, damn what an actor he is. I watched this movie when I was in college days, still remember the day, I was crying non stop during the interview scene. Brilliant film.
MOVIES BUCKET