@aj66inuk and I have been discussing that whilst the world has changed, some things have not. #Sabotage is an outdated concept unless you think that Cyber is an extension..
@tazwake @DanielGDresner @ciaranmartinoxf @Tob1Leron @TheEPS1 @DuncanChapple @aj66inuk 2/x an extension of what our former Cold War adversaries were trying to do to us. In 1982 Duncan Campbell spelled out where adversaries would try to attack us. But with Glasnost this became unfashionable and apparently unaffordable.
@tazwake @DanielGDresner @ciaranmartinoxf @Tob1Leron @TheEPS1 @DuncanChapple @aj66inuk 3/X Defector information in the public domain gave us some insights was to what the Warsaw Pact threat to our CNI might look like. Discussions with former adversaries, now Polish, (East) German and Czech allies wld be informative here.
@tazwake @DanielGDresner @ciaranmartinoxf @Tob1Leron @TheEPS1 @DuncanChapple @aj66inuk 4/X Believing there is a credible threat has always been our challenge here in UK. Understanding how a nation state adversary would come at us would be the next step.
It will be persistent, an adversary like the GRU will have been analysing our CNI for over 70 years
@tazwake @DanielGDresner @ciaranmartinoxf @Tob1Leron @TheEPS1 @DuncanChapple @aj66inuk 5/x They will have formed physical and logical plans to attack us. It some cases they may know our assets and our vulnerabilities better than we do. CARVER Shock is an old-school tool that gives an idea how they will come after us. You can apply
Below is my 2021 crystal ball – out there to be smashed :)
A thread to come.
1/ Theme 1: Bitcoin is still the King
2/ Breaking Theme 1 down into 5 things:
a) Bitcoin price hitting $100k
b) More momentum in developer sponsorship
c) Lightening getting beyond early adoption
d) Payment in bitcoin gaining more traction (Africa and LatAm)
e) More smart contracts built on top of bitcoin network
3/ Surprise Factor for Theme 1:
Will some small countries PUBLICLY load up bitcoin as part of their forex reserve?
4/ Theme 2:
Heightened focus on privacy continues to fuel DeFi growth
The mask remembered the sound of a sewing machine hemming his edges, and plop! The memory got erased! The old woman selling him for...plop!
The right loop was frayed, as it was hung on one ear more often.
The top was worn out, worn below the nose, as if it held the nose from running.
The bottom was frazzled, bristled by the beard.
The specks of dust, the stains, the creases...they held memories of months. Plop!
The mask remembered being thrown away into the bushes, his loop caught in a twig as he fluttered in the winter wind like a broken wing.
A cow had sniffed him, and sensing remnants of her butchered sisters, had moved away with a start. The mask, however, was caught in her horn.
Repulsed by the perversion, the cow had charged ahead, as if trying to escape the horror on her horns.
People fled from the way, dogs yelped and disappeared, crows followed the frenzied cow like bikers slithering behind an ambulance, even as other cows grazed on the green grass.
The cow, hearing the clanging of temple bells, stopped herself outside as if calmed by the rhythmic sound. A kind old man came out, shook his head at what he saw, removed the mask from the horn, and threw it into the mud.
It was in this mud that the mask had breathed to life.
emotional dysregulation is one of the worst most destructive symptoms for me to the point it was taking over my life so much i thought i had bipolar/bpd. it’s not just getting sad or having mood swings - for me it’s anger, anger that feels as if it’s eating me from the inside out
hyperfixation sounds cute but when your brain has decided it wants to put you in a state of perpetual inability to engage in your responsibilities it’s no fun at all nor does it constitute a “superpower” that helps me get whatever i’m fixated on done. it’s more like days spent
in bed unable to drag yourself away from youtube videos about tsunamis when you have an assignment due in 2 days and mouldy cups festering on your bedside table. it’s snapping at your partner because they’re trying to stop you hyperfocusing on an argument you’re having with some
random online because your brain won’t let you leave that state (this ties in with the emotional dysregulation part massively too). it’s not being able to stop reading the fanfiction you wrote when you were 14 bc you hoarded it all and your brain decided one day it’d be funny to
By extension, getting filled actually lowers the Bayesian probability that you are right
Should I sacrifice some RRR to get filled more often?
The eternal dilemma of contrarian trading
I haven't seen this tradeoff articulated on CT. Allow me to explore this, starting with an example of trading with limit orders:
Suppose that for a given setup, price hits target before it reaches invalidation 70% of the time. Great, right? But getting filled is not guaranteed.
Scenario 1: If 100 out of 100 limits get filled, expected hit rate is 70%
Scenario 2: If only 40 out of 100 limits get filled, expected hit rate is 25%
Both scenarios have 30 losses in expectation, but the hit rate in the first is >2x better simply because more trades were taken
Then we have RRR. Setting entries closer to invalidation increases RRR but decreases the probability of getting filled, since entries are further away from the current price. And as above, getting filled less often results in a lower hit rate. So RRR trades off against hit rate.
Where to place the limit orders though? The optimal place to enter maximizes the EV of the setup, where
EV = hitrate * avg_win_R + (1-hitrate) * avg_loss_R
So we want argmax(EV), and we can compute this by seeing how hitrate and avg_win_R affect the EV of the setup.
1) The Teachers who truly are not paid well tend to be in red states w/o strong Unions. Those Teachers are doing an enormous service to their community, and many are truly doing it for low wages and benefits.
The Teachers who are mostly working remotely right now tend to be concentrated in areas where Unions have strong power. These are the highest paid Teachers in the country, both in wages, benefits, and protections.
You cannot simply look at base salary in a vacuum w/o examining the value of fringe benefits. This is no different from private sector employees. This is why we call it "total compensation".
This is the NYC UFT payscale. In addition to decent salaries, they receive full healthcare (paid), a defined benefit pension that allows them to retire @ 55, and post-retirement healthcare for life for their families.
A simple thread to explain the economics behind stock fluctuations!👇🧵
1. Penny stocks show huge volatility but on the other hand stock of large cap companies show little fluctuations.
Did you ever observe how ‘Foreign Exchange’ rates show little fluctuation and are range bound?
Let us understand the economics behind it.
2. In this thread we will learn two things,
👉Why large companies show quick change in their prices though the magnitude of change is less?
👉What causes huge jump in prices of penny stocks? Or why on a bad day they can easily fall with huge magnitude?
3. First things first. Let us understand who decides the price of goods? Is it the ‘Buyer(s)’ or the ‘Seller(s)’?
The answer to this basic question is that price is decided by both of them.
This is because,
👉 A ‘Buyer’ would always be willing to buy any commodity at lesser price.
👉 A ‘Seller’, on the other hand would try to sell his product at a greater price.
It is good to give a voice to the huge frustrations being felt with regard to the situation musicians, other performers & the many other skilled professionals who work alongside them are waking up to now the UK-EU FTA deal is public /2
Virtually nothing in this article I wrote two months ago is changed by the deal, as in fact predicted in the article itself
The current petition is a kind of offshoot of the @WeAreTheMU petition that has been running for 2 years which has so far 90k
Who will act on the pleas in these petitions, especially as the deal, with its 2,000 pages, will become law in about 40 hours time in our Noddy-democracy Parliament? Trade bodies representing the UK's music industry have been lobbying hard on these exact issues for 4 years /5
Clinton money runs very deep. They’ve been involved with elections since 2014.... How was the foundation allowed to fund "projects" dealing with elections even while Killary was running as president?
~1~The Clinton foundation is the source of many well funded activities that allows them to control everything. Barrick Gold Corp is relevant to #Solarwinds & the Delian Project to Dominion. I'll cover Barrick once I get to Newmont through UBS. We will focus on the Delian Project.
~2~“In 2014, Dominion Voting committed to providing emerging and post-conflict democracies with access to voting technology through its philanthropic support to the DELIAN Project, as many emerging democracies suffer from post-electoral violence due to the delay in the...
...publishing of election results. Over the next three years, Dominion Voting will support election technology pilots with donated Automated Voting Machines (AVM), providing an improved electoral process, and therefore safer
~3~Dominion was bought by Staple Street Capital in 2018.
For me, an incredible group of young scholars doing highly relevant science was the #Bestof2020. Here are my favorite 2020 paper by each of several young scholars with whom I get to work
To see where some of these folks were last year see this thread
let's start this #BestOfResp2020 with @UM_IHPI
It's time for #BestOf2019 lists— Jack Iwashyna (@iwashyna) December 26, 2019
I thought I would try something new. Here are my single favorite paper by each of several young scholars with whom I get to work. They are all rock-stars. In lots of cases these were hard choices 'cause they were very productive this year...
[email protected] changed the way I look at pulse oximetry in @nejm, rethinking my bedside care
This paper has rightly gotten a lot of
1/ Our research letter on racial bias in pulse oximetry measurement, out today in NEJM https://t.co/6dLuNGosxp pic.twitter.com/XXsfWfc5dv— Michael Sjoding (@msjoding) December 17, 2020
But I think it is useful to look at it as an example of what makes Mike's work so interesting. A grant to build a dataset just to look at this project would, I think, have been un-fundable. Instead Mike had built an infrastructure to look at ARDS detection
When @msjoding came across Prof Amy Moran-Thomas's provocative @BostonReview essay (https://t.co/VB63h74o9U) he was able to pivot that data infrastructure to ask an important question...
-> Because D2C brands are able to directly establish a relationship with the consumer, they are able to provide greater personalization & faster TAT for after-sales issues. I have personally interacted with many co-founders of these brands after purchase to provide feedback.
-> Lack of infrastructure shackles allows these brands to increase their CACs & rope in consumers with cashbacks, rewards, subscriptions, and other gifting bundles. Brands have also collaborated together in the form of cross-overs (Dope x Svami, The Whole Truth x KC Roasters).
-> I personally discovered half of these brands through @CRED_club. CRED claims that their 3 million members spend as much as 40% higher than average consumers. If this holds true, CRED Pay, launched in collaboration with @Razorpay, is a golden opportunity for D2C brands.
-> The craft coffee revolution has reached India. Newer flavours, blends, roast profiles, and the finer subtleties of coffee are finding takers. Here's a tweet from @miten highlighting some of these amazing brands on CRED.
fellow coffee lovers \u2615\ufe0f— miten sampat (@miten) December 23, 2020
super excited to share that @CRED_club Store now has the widest collection of Coffee beans you can find in India!
50+ varietals of beans, 7 brands (+5 soon) + gear
we aim to be the best place to satisfy that espresso urge! https://t.co/VgQvmdn51Q pic.twitter.com/P64L3jozSU
A few quick thoughts (although very much first
It seems like the bill contains a mix of some of the options outlined in our @instituteforgov explainer on UK ratification
Clause 29 seems to be a catch all clause - so existing domestic law is treated as subject to the UK-EU deal where it has not been specifically amended to implement it (where this is required) (more from @ProfMarkElliott
Cl 29 of the Future Relationship Bill is certainly interesting. If I\u2019ve understood correctly, it is, in effect, an automatic Henry VIII clause that requires existing domestic law to be treated as subject to the Agreements to the extent that they have not been implemented. pic.twitter.com/nyL52YOslD— Mark Elliott (@ProfMarkElliott) December 29, 2020
Also seem to be separate provisions for the social security coordination protocol to form part of domestic law (clause 26)
Clause 31 includes a general implementating power (a big Henry VIII power, that allows the use of secondary legislation to do anything an act of parliament could do). Seems to be affirmative. Exercisable by gov and also devolved administrations. Inevitable given short time.
Every single person knows Konark is pride of Odisha as well as Jewel heritage of nation
The eastern Ganga King the Great Langula Narasimha Deba built this temple on 1242 CE
According to historician Dr Anil dey it was established on 1242 September 25 .
And the temple was inaugurated on January 27 ,1258.
The temple completed in 15 years, 4 months and 2 days.
*It is the only (first)rarest 24wheeled chariot-shaped ancient Sun temple in the world
The chariot shaped temple having 24 wheels , 7 horses , huge elephants and Lions in moving position.
The temple was erected as it is up to 315 years of establishment
People found worshiping the deity Sun god of Konark according to kalinga tradition & rituals.
After end of Gajapati ruling , The Mughal pirates attached kalinga's coast and razed the main Konark shrine to the ground
They smashed the temple Garbha gruha's #RatnaMuda(top of temple)
Where generally the owners(doner) used to offer wealth to God according to Hindu believe
The above painting was done by hist.Ferguson in 1837
According to him,the broken garbha gruha(main temple)was partially erected,which was of150ft height
*The attack period was calculated as1568(post Gajapati era)
*After entry of mughals the Temple became abandoned forever
When trying to outline future challenges, a lot of attention is typically given to advanced technology, like blockchain, genetic engineering, wired brain, increased digitalization of the world, and AI, culminating in the Singularity.
While this kind of thinking is important, as our dreams reveal something about ourselves irrespective of the degree of realization, I think there are other possible challenges that may equally or more merit our attention.
The advancement of these technologies depends on our access to cheap energy resources, primarily fossil fuels, which with continued growth (not hindered by f.e. a pandemic) won’t be possible for much longer. I see no answer to Peak Oil.
Peak Oil isn’t the sexiest discourse – interactions of quantities of energy resources, economy, extraction techniques, disinformation – I prefer to get my hands less “dirty”, dealing with something more purely of the mind, but that doesn’t mean peak oil doesn’t merit attention.
What may face us, if Peak Oil thinkers like Michael Ruppert got it right, seems to be something between a chaotic collapse of the globalization and the emergence of political orders based less on fragile, global complexity, and more on geography and ecological limitation.
I have made an attempt to go through his series wise journey as the test captain and have attempted to do a critical analysis of his achievements, failures and challenges for the future.
Indian test team was going through a very rough patch during 13-14, having lost successive series to SA, NZ, Eng, Aus. It was during the Aus series that MSD decided to hang his boots and handover the very young test team to his then deputy Virat Kohli.
The only veteran in the team was Ishant Sharma who had around 60 matches of experience by then, Virat Kohli being the 2nd one with 30 matches to his name. The Average experience of batting unit was 18 and bowling unit was 21, with overall squad average experience being 20 matches
Excluding the 2014 Australia tour, here is a thread of every test series that India played under Virat. I will discuss the results and the highlights of the tour and would give some remarks as per my memory.
The numbers are approximately because I am a B grade stats digger 🤪
1. June 15 - Tour of BD - 1 match
The only match resulted in a draw because of rain. Indian Openers Vijay and Dhawan piled 150+ each to make India reach 462-6. India bowled out BD at a low score and made them follow-on. Ashwin claimed a fifer and started his era of dominance.
Boy do I have some mindblowing statistics for you...
I compared the current mail-in voting tallies for each Congressional District against November mail-in votes for those districts.
The statewide figure currently sits at 62%. Guess which district leads the state?
You guessed it!
GA-14 at 69%. Marjorie Taylor Greene's district.
#2 is GA-8 at 68%.
Jody Hice of "I'm joining Marjorie Taylor Greene in her effort to throw out the Electoral College vote" fame.
GA-9 (Doug Collins) is above the state average at 64%.
IF Republicans were ditching absentee balloting en masse to vote on Election Day, you'd expect to see it by now. But the early *in-person* voting totals are what's actually lagging, not mail-in voting.
Pardon the sloppy spreadsheet, but those last 4 columns are what I'm looking at. The last one in particular.
50% more contagious and the main difference is in the rate of infection in children up to the age of 9.
No significant difference found yet in clinical course, mortality within 28 days or chance of re-infection.
50% higher infection rate
(Secondary attack rate 15.1% versus 9.8%)
Main effect in children under 9 years old
(see age distributions, second image has overlay of reference onto UK variant)
Essential to stop the UK variant: 50% higher transmission will lead to more cases, more hospitalizations, more ICU cases, more deaths, and greater economic costs.
Independent SAGE's plan for the UK variant
With the new Covid variant everywhere, it's not enough to just wait for the vaccine | Stephen Reicher
Why you need these for your business.
// THREAD //
Be patient and listen.
Every customer has their own problem and needs.
Ensure you understand their perspective and be willing to help.
Take your time and provide them the best service you can.
Pay attention to the customers issues.
Work with them and understand what they are seeking.
Take this feedback and improve your business moving forward.
This changes can move your business forward.
Be clear, concise, and to the point.
Communicate your point clearly to your customer.
Make sure they know you understand them and want to help.
4. Know your product
You should know your product better than the customer.
If you don't, you're not doing your job well enough.
Study it until you can sell it in your sleep, literally.