@guyyeomans @tazwake @DanielGDresner @ciaranmartinoxf @Tob1Leron @TheEPS1 1/ x Cc @DuncanChapple Long intake of breath as I realise I have recently started the wrong MSc....
@aj66inuk and I have been discussing that whilst the world has changed, some things have not. #Sabotage is an outdated concept unless you think that Cyber is an extension..

@tazwake @DanielGDresner @ciaranmartinoxf @Tob1Leron @TheEPS1 @DuncanChapple @aj66inuk 2/x an extension of what our former Cold War adversaries were trying to do to us. In 1982 Duncan Campbell spelled out where adversaries would try to attack us. But with Glasnost this became unfashionable and apparently unaffordable.

@tazwake @DanielGDresner @ciaranmartinoxf @Tob1Leron @TheEPS1 @DuncanChapple @aj66inuk 3/X Defector information in the public domain gave us some insights was to what the Warsaw Pact threat to our CNI might look like. Discussions with former adversaries, now Polish, (East) German and Czech allies wld be informative here.

@tazwake @DanielGDresner @ciaranmartinoxf @Tob1Leron @TheEPS1 @DuncanChapple @aj66inuk 4/X Believing there is a credible threat has always been our challenge here in UK. Understanding how a nation state adversary would come at us would be the next step.
It will be persistent, an adversary like the GRU will have been analysing our CNI for over 70 years

@tazwake @DanielGDresner @ciaranmartinoxf @Tob1Leron @TheEPS1 @DuncanChapple @aj66inuk 5/x They will have formed physical and logical plans to attack us. It some cases they may know our assets and our vulnerabilities better than we do. CARVER Shock is an old-school tool that gives an idea how they will come after us. You can apply

It’s always fun to guess what would happen next year, no matter how wrong we would be.

Below is my 2021 crystal ball – out there to be smashed :)

A thread to come.

1/ Theme 1: Bitcoin is still the King

2/ Breaking Theme 1 down into 5 things:

a) Bitcoin price hitting $100k
b) More momentum in developer sponsorship
c) Lightening getting beyond early adoption
d) Payment in bitcoin gaining more traction (Africa and LatAm)
e) More smart contracts built on top of bitcoin network

3/ Surprise Factor for Theme 1:

Will some small countries PUBLICLY load up bitcoin as part of their forex reserve?

4/ Theme 2:

Heightened focus on privacy continues to fuel DeFi growth

It was raining heavily, and the fear of each battering raindrop erasing his memory little by little somehow breathed life into the mask.

The mask remembered the sound of a sewing machine hemming his edges, and plop! The memory got erased! The old woman selling him for...plop!

The right loop was frayed, as it was hung on one ear more often.

The top was worn out, worn below the nose, as if it held the nose from running.

The bottom was frazzled, bristled by the beard.

The specks of dust, the stains, the creases...they held memories of months. Plop!

The mask remembered being thrown away into the bushes, his loop caught in a twig as he fluttered in the winter wind like a broken wing.

A cow had sniffed him, and sensing remnants of her butchered sisters, had moved away with a start. The mask, however, was caught in her horn.

Repulsed by the perversion, the cow had charged ahead, as if trying to escape the horror on her horns.

People fled from the way, dogs yelped and disappeared, crows followed the frenzied cow like bikers slithering behind an ambulance, even as other cows grazed on the green grass.

The cow, hearing the clanging of temple bells, stopped herself outside as if calmed by the rhythmic sound. A kind old man came out, shook his head at what he saw, removed the mask from the horn, and threw it into the mud.

It was in this mud that the mask had breathed to life.

feel like adhd is becoming really visible recently which is good! but i’m not seeing any talk of the actual really difficult aspects of having it other than like hehe can’t focus on anything (which is the fucking bane of our lives but it’s the most well-known aspect of it)

emotional dysregulation is one of the worst most destructive symptoms for me to the point it was taking over my life so much i thought i had bipolar/bpd. it’s not just getting sad or having mood swings - for me it’s anger, anger that feels as if it’s eating me from the inside out

hyperfixation sounds cute but when your brain has decided it wants to put you in a state of perpetual inability to engage in your responsibilities it’s no fun at all nor does it constitute a “superpower” that helps me get whatever i’m fixated on done. it’s more like days spent

in bed unable to drag yourself away from youtube videos about tsunamis when you have an assignment due in 2 days and mouldy cups festering on your bedside table. it’s snapping at your partner because they’re trying to stop you hyperfocusing on an argument you’re having with some

random online because your brain won’t let you leave that state (this ties in with the emotional dysregulation part massively too). it’s not being able to stop reading the fanfiction you wrote when you were 14 bc you hoarded it all and your brain decided one day it’d be funny to

The more right you are about your trade setup, the less likely you are to get filled

By extension, getting filled actually lowers the Bayesian probability that you are right

Should I sacrifice some RRR to get filled more often?
The eternal dilemma of contrarian trading

I haven't seen this tradeoff articulated on CT. Allow me to explore this, starting with an example of trading with limit orders:

Suppose that for a given setup, price hits target before it reaches invalidation 70% of the time. Great, right? But getting filled is not guaranteed.

Scenario 1: If 100 out of 100 limits get filled, expected hit rate is 70%
Scenario 2: If only 40 out of 100 limits get filled, expected hit rate is 25%

Both scenarios have 30 losses in expectation, but the hit rate in the first is >2x better simply because more trades were taken

Then we have RRR. Setting entries closer to invalidation increases RRR but decreases the probability of getting filled, since entries are further away from the current price. And as above, getting filled less often results in a lower hit rate. So RRR trades off against hit rate.

Where to place the limit orders though? The optimal place to enter maximizes the EV of the setup, where

EV = hitrate * avg_win_R + (1-hitrate) * avg_loss_R

So we want argmax(EV), and we can compute this by seeing how hitrate and avg_win_R affect the EV of the setup.

Many people meditating have felt this pulse, and it has brought instantaneous emotional and spiritual, and sometimes even physical healing to some people.

I really hope that we can stop making the ridiculous argument that some Teachers shouldn't have to go back to work because they "aren't paid well enough". Let's examine this in detail.

1) The Teachers who truly are not paid well tend to be in red states w/o strong Unions. Those Teachers are doing an enormous service to their community, and many are truly doing it for low wages and benefits.

The Teachers who are mostly working remotely right now tend to be concentrated in areas where Unions have strong power. These are the highest paid Teachers in the country, both in wages, benefits, and protections.

You cannot simply look at base salary in a vacuum w/o examining the value of fringe benefits. This is no different from private sector employees. This is why we call it "total compensation".

This is the NYC UFT payscale. In addition to decent salaries, they receive full healthcare (paid), a defined benefit pension that allows them to retire @ 55, and post-retirement healthcare for life for their families.

Bombs were exploding to expose and take down [D]eep State Swamp Creatures that have been fighting with the Scamdemic and Election Fraud, the RV release and NESARA/ GESARA.

MarkZ reported that Paymasters were told to be back to work on Mon. 28 Dec.

Have you ever wondered why price of large cap cos like Reliance ind. Ltd. or Apple inc. fluctuates less in magnitude but share price of a small cap co witnesses huge volatility?
A simple thread to explain the economics behind stock fluctuations!👇🧵
#investing #financialliteracy

1. Penny stocks show huge volatility but on the other hand stock of large cap companies show little fluctuations.
Did you ever observe how ‘Foreign Exchange’ rates show little fluctuation and are range bound?
Let us understand the economics behind it.

2. In this thread we will learn two things,
👉Why large companies show quick change in their prices though the magnitude of change is less?
👉What causes huge jump in prices of penny stocks? Or why on a bad day they can easily fall with huge magnitude?

3. First things first. Let us understand who decides the price of goods? Is it the ‘Buyer(s)’ or the ‘Seller(s)’?
The answer to this basic question is that price is decided by both of them.

This is because,
👉 A ‘Buyer’ would always be willing to buy any commodity at lesser price.
👉 A ‘Seller’, on the other hand would try to sell his product at a greater price.

Some thoughts on this laudable petition (a 🧵about managing

It is good to give a voice to the huge frustrations being felt with regard to the situation musicians, other performers & the many other skilled professionals who work alongside them are waking up to now the UK-EU FTA deal is public /2

Virtually nothing in this article I wrote two months ago is changed by the deal, as in fact predicted in the article itself

The current petition is a kind of offshoot of the @WeAreTheMU petition that has been running for 2 years which has so far 90k

Who will act on the pleas in these petitions, especially as the deal, with its 2,000 pages, will become law in about 40 hours time in our Noddy-democracy Parliament? Trade bodies representing the UK's music industry have been lobbying hard on these exact issues for 4 years /5

🚨🚨Clinton Foundation --> Solar winds connection

🧵Thread 👇👇👇

Clinton money runs very deep. They’ve been involved with elections since 2014.... How was the foundation allowed to fund "projects" dealing with elections even while Killary was running as president?

~1~The Clinton foundation is the source of many well funded activities that allows them to control everything. Barrick Gold Corp is relevant to #Solarwinds & the Delian Project to Dominion. I'll cover Barrick once I get to Newmont through UBS. We will focus on the Delian Project.

~2~“In 2014, Dominion Voting committed to providing emerging and post-conflict democracies with access to voting technology through its philanthropic support to the DELIAN Project, as many emerging democracies suffer from post-electoral violence due to the delay in the...

...publishing of election results. Over the next three years, Dominion Voting will support election technology pilots with donated Automated Voting Machines (AVM), providing an improved electoral process, and therefore safer

~3~Dominion was bought by Staple Street Capital in 2018.

Some lesser known facts of world heritage site Konark Sun temple~

Every single person knows Konark is pride of Odisha as well as Jewel heritage of nation
The eastern Ganga King the Great Langula Narasimha Deba built this temple on 1242 CE
1/n

According to historician Dr Anil dey it was established on 1242 September 25 .
And the temple was inaugurated on January 27 ,1258.
The temple completed in 15 years, 4 months and 2 days.
*It is the only (first)rarest 24wheeled chariot-shaped ancient Sun temple in the world
2/n

The chariot shaped temple having 24 wheels , 7 horses , huge elephants and Lions in moving position.
The temple was erected as it is up to 315 years of establishment
People found worshiping the deity Sun god of Konark according to kalinga tradition & rituals.
3/n

After end of Gajapati ruling , The Mughal pirates attached kalinga's coast and razed the main Konark shrine to the ground
They smashed the temple Garbha gruha's #RatnaMuda(top of temple)
Where generally the owners(doner) used to offer wealth to God according to Hindu believe
4/n

The above painting was done by hist.Ferguson in 1837
According to him,the broken garbha gruha(main temple)was partially erected,which was of150ft height
*The attack period was calculated as1568(post Gajapati era)
*After entry of mughals the Temple became abandoned forever
6/n

Peak Oil > The Singularity - A thread
When trying to outline future challenges, a lot of attention is typically given to advanced technology, like blockchain, genetic engineering, wired brain, increased digitalization of the world, and AI, culminating in the Singularity.

While this kind of thinking is important, as our dreams reveal something about ourselves irrespective of the degree of realization, I think there are other possible challenges that may equally or more merit our attention.

The advancement of these technologies depends on our access to cheap energy resources, primarily fossil fuels, which with continued growth (not hindered by f.e. a pandemic) won’t be possible for much longer. I see no answer to Peak Oil.

Peak Oil isn’t the sexiest discourse – interactions of quantities of energy resources, economy, extraction techniques, disinformation – I prefer to get my hands less “dirty”, dealing with something more purely of the mind, but that doesn’t mean peak oil doesn’t merit attention.

What may face us, if Peak Oil thinkers like Michael Ruppert got it right, seems to be something between a chaotic collapse of the globalization and the emergence of political orders based less on fragile, global complexity, and more on geography and ecological limitation.

So ICC declared Virat Kohli as the Captain of their test team of the decade.

I have made an attempt to go through his series wise journey as the test captain and have attempted to do a critical analysis of his achievements, failures and challenges for the future.

Please enjoy

Indian test team was going through a very rough patch during 13-14, having lost successive series to SA, NZ, Eng, Aus. It was during the Aus series that MSD decided to hang his boots and handover the very young test team to his then deputy Virat Kohli.

The only veteran in the team was Ishant Sharma who had around 60 matches of experience by then, Virat Kohli being the 2nd one with 30 matches to his name. The Average experience of batting unit was 18 and bowling unit was 21, with overall squad average experience being 20 matches

Excluding the 2014 Australia tour, here is a thread of every test series that India played under Virat. I will discuss the results and the highlights of the tour and would give some remarks as per my memory.
The numbers are approximately because I am a B grade stats digger 🤪

1. June 15 - Tour of BD - 1 match

The only match resulted in a draw because of rain. Indian Openers Vijay and Dhawan piled 150+ each to make India reach 462-6. India bowled out BD at a low score and made them follow-on. Ashwin claimed a fifer and started his era of dominance.

If you're looking at GA EV data and thinking maybe the reason D turnout looks strong relative to 11/3 is because after 2 months of Trump/GOP officials trashing mail-in ballots GOP voters are ditching it for E-Day instead...

Boy do I have some mindblowing statistics for you...

I compared the current mail-in voting tallies for each Congressional District against November mail-in votes for those districts.

The statewide figure currently sits at 62%. Guess which district leads the state?

You guessed it!

GA-14 at 69%. Marjorie Taylor Greene's district.

#2 is GA-8 at 68%.

Jody Hice of "I'm joining Marjorie Taylor Greene in her effort to throw out the Electoral College vote" fame.

GA-9 (Doug Collins) is above the state average at 64%.

IF Republicans were ditching absentee balloting en masse to vote on Election Day, you'd expect to see it by now. But the early *in-person* voting totals are what's actually lagging, not mail-in voting.

Pardon the sloppy spreadsheet, but those last 4 columns are what I'm looking at. The last one in particular.

UK variant update:

50% more contagious and the main difference is in the rate of infection in children up to the age of 9.

No significant difference found yet in clinical course, mortality within 28 days or chance of re-infection.

1/

https://t.co/D8DXVvBeew

50% higher infection rate

(Secondary attack rate 15.1% versus 9.8%)

2/

Main effect in children under 9 years old

(see age distributions, second image has overlay of reference onto UK variant)

3/

Essential to stop the UK variant: 50% higher transmission will lead to more cases, more hospitalizations, more ICU cases, more deaths, and greater economic costs.

Independent SAGE's plan for the UK variant

With the new Covid variant everywhere, it's not enough to just wait for the vaccine | Stephen Reicher

16 key customer service skills.

Why you need these for your business.

// THREAD //

1. Patience

Be patient and listen.

Every customer has their own problem and needs.

Ensure you understand their perspective and be willing to help.

Take your time and provide them the best service you can.

2. Attentiveness

Pay attention to the customers issues.

Work with them and understand what they are seeking.

Take this feedback and improve your business moving forward.

This changes can move your business forward.

3. Communication

Be clear, concise, and to the point.

Communicate your point clearly to your customer.

Make sure they know you understand them and want to help.

4. Know your product

You should know your product better than the customer.

If you don't, you're not doing your job well enough.

Study it until you can sell it in your sleep, literally.