When we put a high multiple to sales, the most important thing to worry about is - what could disrupt those cash flows. A lower multiple to sales (like a 1x or 2x) justifies Yo-Yo cyclicality and 10x sales implies relatively stable gross margins, cash flow and business economics.

From failing to qualify for a major world event to winning a major world event. Unseen transformation in just 3Y 🇮🇹 ⚽️

From an unseen retail owned micro/small cap to institutional darling large cap. Magical transformation unfolding in just 3Y from late 2019 to late 2022 🇮🇳 ⭕️

@harindersnanda @ishmohit1 @soicfinance @punitbansal14 @nison_steve Both should do well. Prefer Zoetis for leadership, best in class margins and management's execution. Elanco should improve with Bayer Animal boosting companion proportion in its overall mix.

#SeQuent will under-perform next 1-2 years due to #ESOP (unless a surprise M&A happens)

On this auspicious day of #GuruPurnima, happy to share an easy to read and an exceptionally worthwhile investment. I plan to make a thread that will hopefully help us invest and live better. Thank you @awealthofcs 🙏🏻

Experience has taught me that less is always more when making investment decisions. Simplicity trumps complexity. Conventional gives you much better odds than exotic. A long-term process is more important than short-term outcomes.

And perspective goes much further than tactics. Tactics are useless to investors in a matter of days—sometimes in a matter of hours. But perspective is something that stays with the investor for a lifetime. It allows you to adapt to the changing market and economic landscape.

While keeping it simple won’t make it any easier to predict the future—no one has a crystal ball—it can give you the necessary capacity to make rational decisions, no matter what happens next.

Perspective is so important because, without it, even the most intelligent of investors can be ruined from a lack of self-awareness in their own abilities. Investors that fail to put the news or market moves into the proper context....[1/2]

EXCERCISE, showing how Discount Rates impact Valuation, using $NFLX as an example.

Why?

“Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices"

--- Warren Buffett

(1/4)

The Futures curve is pricing in 8 Interest rate increases, or +210bp that the ANALYTS at Investment Banks have NOT yet adjusted for in Models

Investment Banks typically use the 10yr Bond, + Equity risk Premium + Beta Adjustment to arrive at a Discount Rate😉

Cont ..

(2/4)

Scenario 1 - Use todays scenario Consensus (Factset) with a 7% Discount Rate, gets +10% upside in Share price for $NFLX to $416 (36.3x P/E)

Yet ...

(3/4)

Scenario 2 - Same Consensus forecast but add 210bp to the Discount Rate. Surprise Surprise😉 Now there is -31% to todays Share price, with a price of $263 (22.9x P/E)

What do you choose 🧐❓

This is why there is always a focus on the 10 Yr Bond, as Equities are priced to Bonds & the cashflow they can generate

Now you can see how sensitive valuations can be to changes in Interest Rates. The Bond Market is pricing in rises, YET Analysts at Investments Banks have not

@SunDudez @Iamsamirarora Even if one had invested when Infosys valuations' were at its peak, one would have still made index-par returns in hindsight

@Dinesh_Sairam @a_basumallick @ashwinidamani Questions that are only answered with time haha.

@a_basumallick @ashwinidamani Just to add - sustainable FCF is a faraway concept for most till (if) they gain scale or innovate/add value. Till then, it's generally always a struggle to manage WC and capacity addition. Wouldn't expect that to change for a while.

1/ Howard Marks once said that before buying an asset, above anything, he wants to know “the amount of optimism that’s in the price.”

All investors can do this with a handy tool: The Reverse DCF.

I'll also leave a download link to my compact DCF Model at the end of this thread.

2/ We all know a regular DCF. But's what a "Reverse DCF"?

If we consider that a DCF is a Linear Equation, we could say the 'X' (The unknown variable) is the Intrinsic Value.

In a Reverse DCF, we start with the Market Price and try to find some other variable, say Sales Growth.

3/ Let's start by taking an example: VST Industries, a Cigarette-maker based in India.

I valued them on my blog a while ago. I'll be retaining the old assumptions, but using the latest financials.

So please note that the Valuation isn't accurate

4/ This is a "Regular DCF" of VST Industries. The Assumptions I've made indicate an Overvaluation.

The Intrinsic Value is Rs. 3,012, but the Market Price is Rs. 3,492.

Let's not dwell on whether this is correct, since we discussed earlier that this isn't an accurate Valuation.

5/ If we want to do a "Reverse DCF" instead, we need to pick a different variable to 'find'. Say, I will pick the Sales Growth numbers.

I will now remove the Sales Growth numbers from the Model and assume that Sales Growth is the same across the years for ease of calculation.