BC STARTUPS
Saved by @zmbnski

👇Thread.

Published a new essay: The red flags and magic numbers that investors look for in your startup’s metrics – 80 slide deck included!

 This was a deck that I created on my (longish) interview process with @a16z. It was a long path, starting with meeting folks at the firm 10 years ago. But the purpose of the deck was to explain how I would use my superpower in an investing context
Here's what I explain in the deck. As investors (whether angel or VC) we're often confronted with an up-and-to-the-right graph. Is it going to go up? Or down?
One solution to forecast these growth curves is the Growth Accounting Framework, where you add up New+Reactivated and subtract churned users. In each time period that gives you the difference in monthly actives.
The problem with this is that it's a lagging metric, not a leading one. We need to go one level deeper and look at the underlying loops that drive these numbers, to understand the quality.
For acquisition loops, I go through a number of different models. SEO+UGC, Viral, and Paid marketing.
In the deck, I break down how to get more granular on each step, and case studies for how to optimize the loop.d
From a metrics standpoint, it's important to analyze the acquisition mix, the quality of the signups, and the platform dependencies. In the deck, I talk through a bunch of the red flags I'm looking for.
I go through the same discussion for the Engagement Loop too. Examples, Upside, Metrics, and Forecasting.
Two kinds of engagement loops- Social Feedback and Content Personalization. There's obviously many others, but these are two that are particularly useful to think about.
I use examples from Pinterest, Twitter, and Uber. Both increasing the activation of users to get them pinning more, how to build a network, and unblocking users who've lost their password.
From a metrics perspective on engagement loops, I'll look at cohort retention curves, frequency analyses, and analyzing notifications too. I don't mention it, but the Power User Curve is important too: https://t.co/kdgO8PIspq
Once you have the Acquisition and Engagement Loops mapped out, and the potential upside, then you can build a forecast for MAUs. This lets you answer the questions you want to answer - where will this curve go?
Hope you enjoy the deck! Again, here's the link:
https://t.co/Kp7YSHTTs6
Thank you @bbalfour @ShaunMClowes @onecaseman @bubba @aatif_awan and the other folks who helped me along the way.

More from Startups

Zen Black
Zen Black
@z3nblack
1/ Thread: "A Silicon Valley Ponzi Scheme"

Thanks to @chamath for laying this out in Social Capital's 2018 annual letter.

I've always appreciated his outspokenness.

2/ The hardest thing for most startups today is the path to market: first finding product-market fit & a way to reach customers, then building a ruthless machine to acquire, monetize & retain them.

3/ Because of this, when the VC industry invests capital into fast growing startups today, the plurality (if not majority) of invested capital will go into user acquisition and ad spending, for better or worse— usually worse.

4/ Todays massive venture-backed advertising, sales, and user acquisition playbook has morphed into one that champions growth at any cost.

This is creating a big bill that will soon come due...

5/ Ad impressions and click-throughs are bid up to outrageous prices by startups flush with venture money, and prospective users demand more and more subsidized products to gain their initial attention.
TECH , STARTUPS , {TEST FOLDER}
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
There are a *lot* of software shops in the world that would far rather have one more technical dependency than they'd like to pay for one of their 20 engineers to become the company's SPOF expert on the joys of e.g. HTTP file uploads, CSV parsing bugs, PDF generation, etc.


Every year at MicroConf I get surprised-not-surprised by the number of people I meet who are running "Does one thing reasonably well, ranks well for it, pulls down a full-time dev salary" out of a fun side project which obviates a frequent 1~5 engineer-day sprint horizontally.

"Who is the prototypical client here?"

A consulting shop delivering a $X00k engagement for an internal system, a SaaS company doing something custom for a large client or internally facing or deeply non-core to their business, etc.

(I feel like many of these businesses are good answers to the "how would you monetize OSS to make it sustainable?" fashion, since they often wrap a core OSS offering in the assorted infrastructure which makes it easily consumable.)

"But don't the customers get subscription fatigue?"

I think subscription fatigue is far more reported by people who are embarrassed to charge money for software than it is experienced by for-profit businesses, who don't seem to have gotten pay-biweekly-for-services fatigue.
STARTUPS
Advertisement
Andrey \uf8ff Azimov
Andrey  Azimov
@AndreyAzimov
The best way to know if people like your product is NOT:

- Have a lot of emails in the waiting list
- Become #1 on PH
- Become #1 of HN or Reddit
- Have people that saing "I'll pay"
- Have a lot of free users

The best way to know if they're actually pay for it.

The only thing that matters is your product providing a value, and you can't know this until people will pay money for it.

We can have a first signal of a product/market fit after the launch by check how many sales we've got in the first 24h. Some scale:

200+ This has a high potential.
100+: This has a potential.
50+: Some people need it.
10+: People almost don't need it.
0+: People don't need it.

This is for a single time payment product. For a subscription probably it should be less because people hate subscription.

And obviously, you should have a lot of traffic like 3-5k+.

Here is a stat for my products (macOS apps) for the first 24h after the launch:
STARTUPS
Garry()
Garry()
@garrytan
Subtle real advantage nobody talks about: if founders can access deeper pools of capital early/quickly, they can get bigger faster without spawning lots of competitors.

If your startup is real, pitching Sand Hill is sometimes like giving away copies of your treasure map

This advice is seldom given because most of the time and for most founders, you are still better off talking about your idea as much as possible to better understand where the dead ends are in the idea maze. Can’t do that in isolation.

Asking investors what is hot is usually less useful than asking what has worked, and what didn’t work and why? That’s how you can skip ahead and avoid death.

“All I want to know is where I’m going to die so I’ll never go there.” —Munger
STARTUPS
Ryan Caldbeck
Ryan Caldbeck
@ryan_caldbeck
1/ Tuesday was my last day as CEO of @CircleUp. I’ve been CEO since starting the co. in 2011 with my co-founder @roryeakin.

This is a thread about what happened, why and my emotions about it. For more detail:

https://t.co/vYImcm1bTM

Much of this I have never talked about.

2/ My goals: I hope it helps founders feel less lonely than I did. Little public content about the challenges of transitioning exists, but I longed for it. I’m not here to provide a playbook- just to share my experience. Hope it might build greater empathy.

Here goes….

3/ Why: When I tell people that I’m transitioning to an Exec Chairman role their first question is always: “why?” Short answer: co. pivot + fertility issues + health issues + a false sense that grit was always the answer = burnout. Long answer: is longer so hang in there with me

4/ Over a 12-18 month period that ended in late 2017 I ran my tank far beyond empty for far too long. You know that sound your car makes when it’s sputtering for more gas? It was like that. Worst year of my life. Since then it has felt like bone on bone.

5/ Here is what happened:

Professionally: pivoting a Series C company was a living hell in and of itself, as I’ve talked about before.
STARTUPS

You May Also Like

SK
SK
@sk_diary1
A #story from #Thiruvilayadal puranam-one of divine leelas of Bhagwan Shiva

#threadseries #Madurai

Story 16- it is about how Bhagwan Shiva explained the meaning of Vedas to the Rishis.

வேதத்துக்குப் பொருள் அருளிச் செய்த படலம்


Once there was a great deluge,everything in the world was destroyed.All lifeforms that existed got perished.Afterwards ,due to Bhagwan Shiva creation started.Then from Bhagwan Shiv ji's mouth-birth of 🕉 OM- Pranavam happened.From Pranavam,4 vedas appeared. Rishis learned them.

Many Rishis in Naimisharanya learned Vedas&recited them but they didn't understand the meaning&essence of Vedas. They were worried as they couldn't find any guru who can teach them the meaning of Vedas.That time,Rishi Arabhatar visited them.Rishis told him about need their worry.

Rishi Arabhatar told them that Bhagwan Shiva has given Vedas &he would be grateful enough to teach the meaning as well.But for that rishis have to rigorous penance at a sacred place.Also told them to go to Sundareswarar temple in Madurai to do tapas in front of Dakshinamurthy.

Assured them that Dakshinamurthy himself will come & teach them.Rishis proceeded to Madurai & started their tapas in front of Dakshinamurthy sannidhi for almost a year starting from Karthigai month pournami to next year Karthigai month pournami following all rituals..annadan
ALL
WORLD OF SANATAN DHARMA
WORLD OF SANATAN DHARM...
@world_sanatan
MINUTE DETAILS ABOUT THE ATTACK ON SHAISTA KHAN AT LAL MAHAL

Remarkable Commando op

A long 🧵 but worth your time

Aurangzeb sent his maternal uncle Shaista Khan with powerful army over 1,50,000 on the request of Badibegum Sahiba, Adilshahi sultanate

1/


Shaista Khan entered Deccan to kill Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj & to destroy his empire. Shahista Khan captured a lot of province and fort of Chakan near Pune.

2/


Till 3 years he gave lot of troubles to the subjects of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj and he personally made Lal Mahal his destination to live at , which was the property of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj . Lal Mahal, where Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj spent his childhood.

3/

1. In the April 1663 Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj personally made a surprise attack on Shahista Khan in the Lal Mahal Pune.

2. Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj attacked with 300 soldiers at the midnight while Lal Mahal had strong security of 1.5 lac soldiers for Shahista Khan.

4/

3. He entered in Pune, he made a drama of wedding ceremony to enter in Pune near Lal Mahal.

4. During the night they made big hole at the wall of Lal Mahal and entered into the palace.

5/
ALL
Advertisement
Pegasus of Dharma
Pegasus of Dharma
@HarduttSuhas
The BATTLE OF PAVAN KHIND (13 July 1660)

300 MARATHAS against 10000+ ADIL SHAHI TROOPS

A Sparta style last man stand at a mountain pass which ensured Shivaji Maharaj's safety.

Valour, loyalty and sacrifice!


Baji Prabhu Deshpande was one of the most able lieutenants of Shivaji. He sacrificed his life defending Shivaji in a heroic last stand known as the "Battle of Pavan Khind" in which his force was hugely outnumbered.(1)

In this battle he became a martyr, but managed to halt the enemy forces for several hours, which secured Shivaji’s safety and victory on another front. Without this heroic last stand Shivaji’s glorious career may have been cut short.(2)


Baji Prabhu was senior to Shivaji. In the beginning he opposed Shivaji being from a rival Maratha clan, but realised that Shivaji stood for national resurgence. Henceforth he became a friend and loyal supporter of Shivaji.(3)

In 1660, Shivaji was trapped in the fort of Panhala, under siege and vastly outnumbered by an Adilshahi army led by general Siddhi Jauhar.(4)
HISTORY
meilong
meilong
@meilong15
一个北大毕业的殡葬工自述武汉封城期间的经历，凄惨。这应该才是武汉的真实情景，跟很多人的叙述是吻合的。


https://t.co/QYTO1SYedG
WUHAN FUNERAL WORKERS REPORT
Abigail See
Abigail See
@abigail_e_see
Can we control the output of neural generation systems?
Can we build a better chatbot using this control?
And what makes a good conversation anyway?

Check out the blog post for our NAACL paper:

https://t.co/UAAUxSeA0L

#AI #NLProc #DeepLearning #ConversationalAI @facebookai

This post got a little delayed since the paper's publication, but the intervening time has given me an opportunity to reflect.

So this post has some extra thoughts regarding more recent NLG developments - e.g., pretrained models like GPT(2), and the suitability of beam search.
ALL