Lots of discussion on media coverage of BIG BETS this week. They’re click-bait-y. Novel. Maybe there’s some envy or schadenfreude at play. But that’s not the real issue. The problem is how operators control media coverage.
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I don’t find big bets nearly as problematic as, say, coverage of someone hitting a 12-leg parlay, but the reason we are inundated with this type of coverage is the same: the operators are deciding what is newsworthy and what isn’t.
The issue is pretty fundamental. Most sports betting media entities exist only because of operators. They are literally paid by operators. That’s how the affiliate model works. Would we be ok if a newspaper covering the Trump White House were funded by the administration?
We’d expect some bias, wouldn’t we? As a result, the sports betting media is mainly a marketing arm for operators right now. Journalists have relationships with operators, who feed them information they want published. Operators understand the accessibility bias & exploit it.
Back to that 12-leg parlay. Operators *love* the 12-leg parlay because their theoretical hold multiplies as the number of legs on the parlay increases. Do operators want to see parlay success stories covered? YES!
How often do you see stories in the newspaper about people winning the lottery? Not often. And when you do, it’s more likely than not about the calamities that have befallen said lottery winner since their big score.
State lotteries would love to see media coverage of someone winning $20,000 from a $5 scratch-off ticket at their local 7-Eleven. But media outlets don’t get a referral fee when Joe Reader plays the lottery.
I don’t think every sports betting writer is a lapdog for operators. This is a bigger issue. It’s systemic. It’s structural. It’s a problem of incentives & power. And I don’t know the solution. But I would encourage sports betting media to try a different angle & see what sticks
There is an appetite for something different. The popularity of @capjack2000's parlay math tweet thread is strong evidence of that. Give us, the consumers, the chance to read something that doesn’t make us feel used.

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A (long) thread on why Andrew is correct but ultimately incorrect…

Andrew is correct at the neurological level. The cognitive and ecological explanations of the brain and behaviour are completely different. Saying you’re an eclectic coach at this level is like saying you


believe the earth is round and flat. It’s simply not possible.

You CANNOT say that in one activity you are helping players build representations/memory (cognitive) and in another activity you’re helping players attune to specifying information in the environment (ecological).

No matter how much we scream eclecticism, at the neurological level Andrew is correct. But after this Andrew is incorrect.

He is basing his critique of an ‘it depends’ stance at a neurological ‘representations vs information’ level (see his thread). But this isn’t the level that

‘it depends’ functions (in a coaching context). ‘It depends’ exists at the behavioural level (certainly not the neurological level). ‘It depends’ relates to decision making around individual and group differences, as well as context. Coaching, by and large, is about helping

people manage and change behaviour – how a coach does this will ‘depend’ on a number of individual, group and contextual factors. That is the most important level of coaching and we don’t have to go to the neurological level to deliver efficaciously and effectively
I don't think people understand the vital difference between a well-rehearsed (and physical) team vs a collection of individuals with no real understanding - new players, makeshift centre-backs, other players out of position. Make do an mend when missing a ton of quality = v.hard


Add fatigue,with less option to rotate, and big effort in 3 away games in previous 9 days. Team lacks height and heft without VvD, Matip, Fabinho, Gomez. Team lacks pace and goals without Jota, Mané. Lacks pace at back without VvD and Gomez. No senior keeper undermines confidence

Team has been disrupted constantly this ssn. Rarely below 6 injuries, often = 10. Thiago a real bonus after months out, but the proper team is not around him. Even Gini looked knackered yesterday. 5th/6th-choice strikers and centre-backs will always be a big drop from 1st choices

Last night was a bit grim, and Brighton were excellent. But it was a strong XI for them, in terms of usual players and in terms of physicality. LFC full of skilful slower little guys right now - lacking the skilful bodyguards and pace. Kabak should help, but he's young and new

You can read Mentality Monsters or Perched for how much I talk about the unity of a team, the practiced understanding from years of intense training together, knowing each others runs and movements. Right now it's a team of semi-strangers and stand-ins.

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