As nearly all teams have played 18 games, a thread checking in on who is ranked top/bottom of the #EPL for all the key numbers

Shots per match (FBREF)
16.0 City
15.8 LFC
15.6 Villa
14.5 Leeds
13.9 United
...
8.9 Newcastle
8.8 Sheff Utd
8.0 WBA
Shots conceded per match (FBREF)
7.3 City
7.9 LFC
8.9 Brighton
9.7 Chelsea
...
11.6 United (9th)
...
14.5 Leeds, Burnley
15.0 Newcastle
16.5 WBA
Penalties awarded (Opta)
10 Leicester (extremely high)
6 United, Brigton
...
1 Burnley
0 West Ham
Penalties conceded
7 Brighton, Wolves
6 Leeds, LFC
...
1 Sheff Utd, Leicester, Arsenal
Big Chances (Opta - includes pens)
56 City
53 Villa
52 LFC, United
...
20 Newcastle
16 WBA
Big Chances conceded (Opta - includes pens)
19 City, Spurs (very good)
25 Villa
29 Chelsea, Arsenal
...
36 United
38 LFC
...
51 Leeds
54 WBA
Defensive Errors (Opta)
17 Leeds (very bad)
10 Chelsea
9 LFC, Palace, Everton
...
3 Leicester
2 West Ham
1 Saints
Non-Penalty XG per match (FBREF)
1.76 LFC
1.66 City
1.61 Villa
1.49 Leeds
1.40 United
...
0.73 Newcastle
0.57 WBA
Non-Penalty XG conceded per match (FBREF)
0.61 City (elite)
0.84 Brighton
0.90 Spurs
0.93 LFC
...
1.15 United (10th)
...
1.55 Leeds
1.73 WBA
Non-Penalty XG Difference per match (FBREF)
1.09 City
0.78 LFC
0.51 Chelesa, Villa
...
0.33 United (7th)
-0.56 Newcastle
-0.64 Burnley
-1.23 WBA
Net VAR Overturns (Dale Johnson)
+3 Everton, Sheff Utd
+2 Brighton, Burnley, Saints
...
-4 WBA
-5 LFC
Observations:
1) City are top of nearly every performance based metric that matters. and in the middle for the luck based ones
2) West Brom are bottom of every performance based metric. and by a long way
3) Liverpool are typically 2nd for most performance based measures but concede too many high quality chances. Team most impacted by VAR
4) Leicester are firmly mid-table for all performance measures but top for pens. Villa look better.
5) Brighton still the 2nd/3rd best defensive team in the league
6) United have a decent attack but mediocre defence
7) Leeds decent attack but catasrophic defence

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I’m torn on how to approach the idea of luck. I’m the first to admit that I am one of the luckiest people on the planet. To be born into a prosperous American family in 1960 with smart parents is to start life on third base. The odds against my very existence are astronomical.


I’ve always felt that the luckiest people I know had a talent for recognizing circumstances, not of their own making, that were conducive to a favorable outcome and their ability to quickly take advantage of them.

In other words, dumb luck was just that, it required no awareness on the person’s part, whereas “smart” luck involved awareness followed by action before the circumstances changed.

So, was I “lucky” to be born when I was—nothing I had any control over—and that I came of age just as huge databases and computers were advancing to the point where I could use those tools to write “What Works on Wall Street?” Absolutely.

Was I lucky to start my stock market investments near the peak of interest rates which allowed me to spend the majority of my adult life in a falling rate environment? Yup.