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Trung Phan 🇨🇦
@TrungTPhan 2 years, 4 months ago 404 views

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The most memorable interview I did this year was w/ Stanley Druckenmiller, who famously made $1B shorting the British Pound.

The trading legend's track record includes a 30-year stretch returning 30%+ a year (without a single down year).

Here are 8 investing lessons🧵

1/ Make concentrated bets in high conviction plays

2/ Concentrated bets can sometimes *reduce* risk

3/ Use a multi-disciplinary approach to investing

4/ Know when to sell (he never uses a stop loss)

5/ You will fight emotions your entire career

6/ His biggest investing mistake came in 2000 when he let emotions overpower his discipline

7/ If you don’t *really* love investing, you will get beat by those who do

8/ Find what *actually* makes a stock goes up or down

9/ If you enjoyed that, I write 1-2x interesting threads a week.

Follow @TrungTPhan to catch them in your feed.

Here's one you might like: https://t.co/B3SWUCF2cd

ASML is the most important company you've never heard of.

The $300B+ Dutch firm makes the machines that make semiconductors. Each one costs $150m and access to them are a huge geopolitical flashpoint.

Here's a breakdown \U0001f9f5 pic.twitter.com/pARj3x7Kwo
— Trung Phan \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6 (@TrungTPhan) August 22, 2021

10/ PS. I also write a Saturday newsletter digging up the most interesting (and mostly hilarious) nuggets from around the web.

https://t.co/jGZs8brnVR

11/ Here's the full Q&A (audio, text) with Druckenmiller. It covers his views on the tech stocks, inflation, Wall Street Bets, crypto (BTC, ETH, DOGE), China and more:

https://t.co/N7MqxWj2ks

12/ One more: Be able to change your mind (before losing $3B in 2000, Druckenmiller pulled a stunning 180-degree turn in 1999)

(This story is courtesy of the Financial Times)

13/ Here is Stan’s guess for the first FAAMG company to reach $5T

More from Trung Phan 🇨🇦

$Trung Phan \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6$

Trung Phan 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan

The Wall Street Bets due diligence on Wendy’s is gold.

The catalysts are:
◻️ The release of a new summer salad
◻️ The @Wendys Twitter account, which has mastered “meta pragmatic roasting” (which is effective with younger people)
◻️ The fact it literally sells chicken tendies

OP:

Here’s a more fundamentals-driven analysis of Wendy’s

https://t.co/A2k19S9M7J

😂😂😂

\u201cThe name of the company is Wendy\u2019s International $WEN. It is a cutting edge high tech firm out of rural Ohio that is awaiting imminent patent approval on the next generation of summer salads that have both huge military and civilian applications.\u201d pic.twitter.com/qmk4hkKL3N
— u/1ronyman (@1ronyman1) June 8, 2021

Further Wendy’s analysis from @CliffordAsness !!

$Trung Phan \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6$

Trung Phan 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan

Our intuitions often leads us astray. A good reminder: study counterintuitive math and economic results.

Here are 9 of them 🧵

The Birthday Paradox

In a room of 23 people, there's a >50% chance that 2 people share the same birthday.

This type of probabilistic thinking does *not* come naturally to many people.

The Coastline Paradox

Fractal geometry is also confounding:

The coastline of a landmass does not have a well-defined measurement. As the unit of measurement gets smaller (eg. from KMs to cm), the length increases without limit.

Winner's Curse

In an auction, the winning bid will usually exceed the intrinsic worth of an item leading to a significant overpay (and negative net profit for the winner).

Braess's Paradox

Removing an extra road can make everyone's commute time faster.

Why? The existence of a "fast" road leads to congestion because everyone uses it. If you remove the shortcut, traffic flows better.

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𝚃𝚛𝚞𝚗𝚐 𝙿𝚑𝚊𝚗 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan

1/ Amazon is famous for its writing culture:

• "Mock press releases / FAQs" for new product pitches
• "6-page memos" instead of Powerpoint

Two former Amazon execs wrote a book called "Working Backwards" detailing the philosophy.

Here are some insights 🧵

2/ The "Working Backwards" playbook

Instead of creating a product then finding customers, Amazon asks "What does the customer need?" and works toward the product.

✅Customer need --> Create product
❌Create product --> Find customer

3/ Write a mock press release

To determine if the customer need makes biz sense, employees write a press release:

• What problem is the new product solving
• Why it's better than existing options

To persuade a customer, the document has to be jargon-free and tell a story.

4/ Press release forces big thinking

You don't write a press release for an incremental improvements.

Creating a product worthy of a press release means really solving a customer problem and going after markets with large TAMs.

5/ Include an FAQ in press release

Addressing every potential customer question can help identify hurdles to getting something to market...and also uncover opportunities.

$Trung Phan \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6$

Trung Phan 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan

For decades, Jeff Bezos shunned ads.

But now, Amazon’s ad business is huge: it’s on a $30B+ annual run rate (more than 2x the combined sales of Twitter, Snap and Pinterest).

Here’s how it happened 🧵

1/ Amazon doesn’t break out its ad business separately in financial filings. However, most analyst believe ads make up the majority of its “Other” revenue segment.

This figure has exploded from $1B in 2015 to a current annual run rate of ~$32B.

2/ In 2009, Bezos said “ads are the price you pay for a crappy product”.

But the business is so lucrative that Amazon’s interface has been swamped with ads:

◻️ First 3-7 search results (left in red)
◻️ Most of the product page (right in blue)

3/ Prior to the rise of ads, Amazon set out to build the ultimate organic customer recommendations engine.

The approach was codified in a famed 2003 research paper: “Amazon Recommendations: Item-to-Item Collaborative Filtering.”

4/ In recent years, Amazon organic recommendations:

◻️"Customers who bought this also bought this"
◻️"Customers who viewed also viewed"

Have been replaced w/ ads:

◻️ "Sponsored products related to"
◻️ "Brands related to this category"

$Trung Phan \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6$

Trung Phan 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan

At 40, Jim Simons left a famed math career to launch the most successful hedge fund ever: Renaissance Tech.

Even though it only won 51% of trades, the fund made 66%/yr for 30yrs (Simons worth = $25B). It's a story of genius, but also of how hard it is to beat markets.

THREAD🧵

1/ The crown jewel of RenTech is The Medallion Fund (launched in 1988).

◻️ From 1988-2018, it posted a return of 66%/yr (39% after fees)
◻️$1 invested in 1988 is now worth $14m+
◻️ Cumulative profit = $100B+ even with an avg. fund size of only $4.5B

2/ Before creating what Bloomberg calls the “greatest money-making machine ever”, Simons was a legendary mathematician.

3/ While at Stony Brook, Simons started trading commodities (with money staked by former MIT classmates).

The side investing was good enough that Simons -- also going through a divorce -- decided to leave academia and launch his own money management firm in 1978: Monemetrics.

4/ At the time, there were 2 main investment approaches:

◻️ Fundamental (understanding and forecasting an asset based on key drivers)
◻️ Technical analysis (studying price charts)

Simons’ strategy was to place a “fundamental lens” on currencies (eg. supply and demand).

More from Finance

Prashant Shah
@Prashantshah267

Thread: P&F Super Pattern

An effective price pattern defined using properties of P&F charts.

#Superpattern #Pointandfigure #Definedge

Point & Figure is an oldest charting method where price is plotted vertically, and the chart moves only when price moves. It is a different way of looking at the price, the objective box-value and reversal value offers advantage of identifying objective price patterns.

When price is moving up, it is plotted in a column of 'X'. When it is going down, it is plotted in a column of ‘O’. Normally, three-box reversal criteria is used to define the trend & reversal. Unlike a bar or candle, the P&F column can have multiple sessions in it.

Link to know more about the subject:
https://t.co/2xtLAVPBvm

See below chart. Price is in a strong uptrend, P&F chart would produce a long of column of 'X' with more number of boxes in it.

If such a trend is followed by some time bars without meaningful price correct, P&F chart would not move, and it will remain in column of 'X' in such a scenario.

Roger C. Schonfeld
@rschon

Wiley buys Hindawi -- a $298 million acquisition for GBP 25 million in annual APC revenues -- in bid to expand open-access platforms @pbasken

I'm really fascinated by several things about this acquisition. 1. One could posit that APC business models in structural decline as they are replaced by transformative agreements. Will Hindawi titles be folded into Wiley TA's or offered as a separate "pure publish" model?

2. Seems that there is little concern about geopolitical risk: "Wiley…saw value in Hindawi’s strong position in Asia, the world’s largest and fastest growing academic publishing market…“Hindawi’s significant footprint in in China is a major benefit from that perspective”"

3. It seems some in the academic community continue to be "alarmed" when, after taking advantage of private capital to fund commercial start-ups for open access services (bepress; SSRN; now Hindawi), that capital looks to sell in search of returns. As if this is a surprise!

4. Most interesting will be to see how this expansion of Wiley's OA portfolio and platforms/workflows/services can connect with its important businesses in support of society publishing.

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Benjamin Simon
@benjaminsimon97

1/18 After 3 months, @saffronfinance_ is no longer new on the scene. Now that the kid has climbed the ranks, it's time to see if he can hang with the big boys.

Below are some updated thoughts on potential integrations, improvements, and innovations for Saffron moving forward. ⬇️

1/11 @saffronfinance_ ($SFI) is DeFi's new kid on the block with its tranched yield product that is already live with DAI on @compoundfinance. https://t.co/JpqnxhwrDw
— Benjamin Simon (@benjaminsimon97) November 19, 2020

2/18 First, if you haven't seen @Privatechad_'s alpha-leaking introductory thread, you should check it out.

I agree that @AlphaFinanceLab and @CreamdotFinance, specifically the Iron Bank, would be ideal targets for SFI risk tranches.

15/. 3. Though not the focus atm, interest from various projects and integrations are happening.
* Chainlink reached out (props to the amazing $LINK team).
* Talks with $ALPHA and rumored upon V2 releases there will be a collaboration.
*Cream integrations in v2
* $COMP tranches pic.twitter.com/IXCtzvSkw7
— Private Chad (@Privatechad_) February 1, 2021

3/18 Speaking more broadly, Saffron is primarily integrated with @compoundfinance, which has served as a MVP of sorts.

The thing is, Compound is one of the safest (but also lowest yield) protocols in DeFi, so it's not surprising that there isn't much demand for the sen. tranche.

4/18 Expanding beyond Compound to higher-risk/higher-return protocols has always been key.

These protocols are the bread-and-butter target market for Saffron, and I would expect to see a surge in demand for senior tranche staking in these

4/11 Imo, the golden egg will be vault platforms like @iearnfinance, @picklefinance, etc.

Recently, some of these higher risk platforms (e.g. @harvest_finance) have been hit with a wave of attacks.

Saffron will enable cautious investors to use these products with peace of mind.
— Benjamin Simon (@benjaminsimon97) November 19, 2020

5/18 Additionally, @DeFiGod1 convinced me that Senior Tranche pools would be more appealing if they offered fixed yield.

Essentially, Saffron would augment the product offerings of @Barn_Bridge by also offering senior stakers insurance in the form of junior tranche collateral.

Thomas Chua
@SteadyCompound

Marathon Asset produced several iconic investors such as Nick Sleep and Jeremy Hosking.

Their letters from 2002 to 2015 provided a treasure trove of insights into their investment frameworks and how they look at the capital cycle.

Here are my main takeaways:

1/ Periods of high profitability leads to reckless investments.

When profits are high:

-Boost CAPEX with little regard for ROIC
-Competitors will follow suit to avoid losing market share
-CEO's incentives aren't aligned with shareholders

It's a race to the bottom.

2/ The capital cycle will swing down when investments are taken too far.

Forecasts that were reasonable will now look overly optimistic.

Profits collapse, management teams are changed, CAPEX is cut, and consolidation begins.

This will pave way for a recovery of profits.

3/ Asset growth matters

Consider both asset growth at the company and industry level.

Avoid industries where assets are growing rapidly.

4/ We tend to extrapolate

When overdone, investments that appear logical at first can become disastrous.

We have a tendency to forecast linearly when many things are cyclical.

Examples: trade cycles, credit cycles, etc

Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16

Rule 4 : If buying a naked option, always ensure that implied volatility is low. This can be understood from the level of IV vis a vis historical IV levels. Use IVR or IVP etc.
For a naked option to make money, it's better if IV rises or at least stays flat.

Rule 3 : DO NOT run or trade everything that moves. Focus on a few stocks and master them. When a move comes, make the max out of that move.
Example : in this crazy mkt, I did not even trade TataMotors this week. Stayed focussed on ITC and it gave good returns https://t.co/41wkugZg1I
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) October 14, 2021

This is a thread I wrote on IV, IVR etc

IV - A thread

In financial mathematics, implied volatility of an option contract is
that value of the volatility of the underlying instrument which, when
input in an option pricing model ) will return a theoretical value equal to the current market price of the option (1/n)
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) September 20, 2018

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Dr. Jane Clare Jones
@janeclarejones

So, on the subject of bonkers hyperbolic pretzeling over the Bell judgement, Grace 'destroy books I don't like & make inappropriate jokes about sterilising teenage girls' Lavery has some thoughts.

Tell me why my feminism is wrong Grace.

Oh

Well, if anyone thought the Bell judgment was going to make TRAs reconsider making massively overblown claims with no evidence backed up with nothing but a thick wadge of emotional blackmail.... HAHAHA, no one thought that.

A high court in the UK made a delimited judgment about teenager's ability to consent to puberty blockers. This puts all trans people everywhere in the world at risk.

Because if any human anywhere has any thoughts that deviate in any way from the rote line dictated by

the trans rights movement, this puts all trans people everywhere in mortal danger.

Let's be honest Grace. It doesn't put trans people at risk. It puts trans ideology at risk. Because trans ideology depends on the idea of innate gender identity, and the trans child is the

necessary material evidence of the ontology of gender identity.

That is, children are being medicalised to provide evidence to underwrite adults identities.

Nothing to see here.

$\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0932\u0940 \u0939\u093f\u0924\u0947\u0936 \u0905\u0935\u0938\u094d\u0925\u0940$

श्रीमाली हितेश अवस्थी...
@HiteshAwasthi89

Sri Devi Karumariamman mandir, Chennai, Tamilnadu

Sri Devi Karumariamman mandir is in Thiruverkadu, a suburb of Chennai. It is said that God Muruga came here and obtained the 'Vel' (spear) from His mother, Goddess Karumari (an avatar of Parvathi) 1/n

to fight the demon Suran and hence this place was called as 'Vel kadu' and became as Verkadu. As per legend Devi Karumariamman once disguised as a soothsayer visited Bhagwan Surya, the Sun God, to predict His future. 2/n

Not realising that the soothsayer is none other than Sakthi Matha, Surya ignored Her. Angered by his indifference, Devi Karumariamman immediately retreated. Bhagwan Surya lost His glory and the earth plunged into darkness. 3/n

Bhagwan Surya then realised His folly and pleaded forgiveness from Devi Karumariamman. In order to pacify mother Karumariamman, Suryadev said that His rays would fall on Her directly twice in a year and touch her feet. (in the month of Panguni (March- April) & during (Sep - Oct)

Mother Karumari Amman is worshipped here in two forms.A swayambu (self manifested) with only head visible above the ground and another one in a graceful sitting posture with all Parasakthi features,with four arms holding skull, sword, trishul, udukkai (damru). 5/n

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WORLD OF SANATAN DHARM...
@world_sanatan

THE LAST STAND OF PAVAN KHIND - THE 300 BATTLE OF INDIA

A long🧵that u must read

In desperate times, great men come forth. Those men who are ready to sacrifice all of their lives work for a single cause.

Baji Prabhu Deshpande is one such man.

1/25

Battle was between the Maratha Warrior Baji Prabhu Deshpande and Sidi Masoud of Adil Shahi Sultanate.

In 1660, the Maratha King Shri Chhatrapati Shivaji was trapped in the fort of Panhala, under siege and vastly outnumbered by an Adilshahis army led by Sidi Masoud.

2/25

And while everyone is thinking that finally the Maratha king will be subdued, Shivaji planned to escape to the fort of Vishalgadh. It was administered by a Maratha chieftain named Range Narayan Orpe under Shivaji.

3/25

For months the siege warfare continued as Shivaji made sure that the food source of the Besieging army drops down, due to which they will initiate a general assault on the castle.

4/25

Shivaji, Baji Prabhu, and around 600 of their best troops, hardened mountaineers of the Maval region, would dash through the Adilshahis force at night.

A man named Shiva Kashid, who resembled Shivaji in appearance, had volunteered to dress like the king and get captured.

5/25

UN Watch
@UNWatch

The UN just voted to condemn Israel 9 times, and the rest of the world 0.

View the resolutions and voting results here:

The resolution titled "The occupied Syrian Golan," which condemns Israel for "repressive measures" against Syrian citizens in the Golan Heights, was adopted by a vote of 151 - 2 - 14.

Israel and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/HoO7oz0dwr

The resolution titled "Israeli practices affecting the human rights of the Palestinian people..." was adopted by a vote of 153 - 6 - 9.

Australia, Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/1Ntpi7Vqab

The resolution titled "Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and the occupied Syrian Golan" was adopted by a vote of 153 – 5 – 10.

Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/REumYgyRuF

The resolution titled "Applicability of the Geneva Convention... to the
Occupied Palestinian Territory..." was adopted by a vote of 154 - 5 - 8.

Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/xDAeS9K1kW

Ankur Patel
@AnkurPatel59

FEW USEFUL CHARTINK SCANNERS :

This Scanner will be More than Enough for any Swing / Positional Trader to find Good Stocks.

Few Important Chart ink Scanners which can help you to find Setups and boost up your Trading Account : 🧵

Do Retweet If you If it Useful

1. Momentum Stocks

This Scanner can be helpful for Short term Swing Trades . you can easily find Stocks which are in Momentum.

Stocks which are up by 20 % in 5 Days
Stocks which are up by 30 % in 30 Days
Stocks which are up by 30 % in 30 Days

2. Volume Spike

We always Look for Price and Volume Confirmation for Breakout Trading. This scanner will help you to find the Stocks Which has given a move with Good Volume . You can keep this Stock in Radar and catch the Next move in them :

3 . Reversal Scan

Stocks which are Down by 20 % + in 5 days

When Market Corrects for sometime , You can find Stocks where selling is Exhausted and they can make a Good Reversal move .

4. Reversal Scan - Stock Down continues 5 days .

If you Know the Concept of 3-5 Days move . you might catch few stocks from this scanner. Always try and Pick stocks which are in strong momentum , you have more Chances of Getting Right in Reversal Trade.