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November Jobs Report Thread
There is both good news and bad news buried in the report.
Most often, too much attention is paid to the headline month on month numbers.
1)
2) In year over year terms, total nonfarm payrolls did not increase for the first time since the pandemic. Generally, this is a negative.
3) Under the hood, most of the decline was in the government sector so it makes more sense to look at private payrolls in this context.
4) Private payroll growth continues to increase but the gains are clearly slowing down - this is to be expected.
5) The troubling part of the report was the labor force participation rate which remains stubbornly low.
As @R_Perli highlighted, if the LFPR does not increase back to pre-COVID levels, we're going to struggle with weaker trend potential growth.
https://t.co/zw7fCZ2gfY
There is both good news and bad news buried in the report.
Most often, too much attention is paid to the headline month on month numbers.
1)
2) In year over year terms, total nonfarm payrolls did not increase for the first time since the pandemic. Generally, this is a negative.
3) Under the hood, most of the decline was in the government sector so it makes more sense to look at private payrolls in this context.
4) Private payroll growth continues to increase but the gains are clearly slowing down - this is to be expected.
5) The troubling part of the report was the labor force participation rate which remains stubbornly low.
As @R_Perli highlighted, if the LFPR does not increase back to pre-COVID levels, we're going to struggle with weaker trend potential growth.
https://t.co/zw7fCZ2gfY
The worst part of the employment report is the stall in the labor force participation rate (-0.2% today and about 2% lower than pre-#COVID19).
— Roberto Perli (@R_Perli) December 4, 2020
The longer participation stays depressed, the harder it will be to bring those workers back, and the lower potential growth will be. pic.twitter.com/7u966oxBME
The anatomy of a scenario...
A 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱 on how mitigation works, why we probably need some level of carbon capture & storage (CCS) & carbon dioxide removal (CDR) - just not as much as in scenarios.
Based on my presentation ↦ https://t.co/j5uLxUi0xF
2. We start with a baseline or reference scenario, that assumes no or limited mitigation. If we want to stay "well below 2°C" we need to get rid of the dark grey & be net-zero!
We can argue about the baseline, but for the purposes here, it doesn't matter https://t.co/C0dAdj65tl
3. The heavy lifting is done by conventional mitigation: behavioural change, energy efficiency, fuel switching (fossils to non-fossils), changed transport, dematerialisation, etc, etc...
But, scenarios suggest this is not enough to get rid of all greenhouse gases.
4. In some sectors, particularly some industrial sectors, perhaps the cheapest or only way to mitigate is with carbon capture & storage (CCS), eg, cement, steel, chemicals, etc
This is one reason we need CCS...
5. We can't forget about non-CO₂ emissions. We can probably get most non-CO₂ out of industry, but what about agriculture? Even if we change diet, reduce food waste, etc, we may not be able to eliminate CH₄ or N₂O from agriculture.
Some CO₂ & non-CO₂ remains (dark grey)...
A 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱 on how mitigation works, why we probably need some level of carbon capture & storage (CCS) & carbon dioxide removal (CDR) - just not as much as in scenarios.
Based on my presentation ↦ https://t.co/j5uLxUi0xF
2. We start with a baseline or reference scenario, that assumes no or limited mitigation. If we want to stay "well below 2°C" we need to get rid of the dark grey & be net-zero!
We can argue about the baseline, but for the purposes here, it doesn't matter https://t.co/C0dAdj65tl
3. The heavy lifting is done by conventional mitigation: behavioural change, energy efficiency, fuel switching (fossils to non-fossils), changed transport, dematerialisation, etc, etc...
But, scenarios suggest this is not enough to get rid of all greenhouse gases.
4. In some sectors, particularly some industrial sectors, perhaps the cheapest or only way to mitigate is with carbon capture & storage (CCS), eg, cement, steel, chemicals, etc
This is one reason we need CCS...
5. We can't forget about non-CO₂ emissions. We can probably get most non-CO₂ out of industry, but what about agriculture? Even if we change diet, reduce food waste, etc, we may not be able to eliminate CH₄ or N₂O from agriculture.
Some CO₂ & non-CO₂ remains (dark grey)...
Community Capitalism
I wanted to wrap up the year by writing about something I have been thinking about for the last few months:
Who owns the best businesses in the world?
I am trying to draw a line from inherited wealth of feudal lords to community-owned services with tokens.
The last 1,000 years can be roughly split into two 500-year chunks: feudalism & capitalism. Feudal lords controlled all of the land, farms, buildings and capital. This was passed down inside families and never distributed to the workers.
Capitalism totally changed that.
Risk, reward and ruin were separated when joint-stock companies became more common. The prerequisite for successful entrepreneurship shifted from inheritance to initiative.
People without wealth could access it and start new ventures.
Founders started founding new companies.
Equity compensation kicked off in the 1950s but it really went into overdrive when it was mixed with high-growth technology companies backed with high-risk equity bets. Silicon Valley perfected the art. Employees at many of the most successful technology companies became owners.
The SEC did two huge things this year. They raised the crowdfunding limit to $5m and introduced a proposal to allow gig workers to receive stock.
I predict that we will see competitors to Airbnb, Uber and DoorDash all take advantage of this
I wanted to wrap up the year by writing about something I have been thinking about for the last few months:
Who owns the best businesses in the world?
I am trying to draw a line from inherited wealth of feudal lords to community-owned services with tokens.
The last 1,000 years can be roughly split into two 500-year chunks: feudalism & capitalism. Feudal lords controlled all of the land, farms, buildings and capital. This was passed down inside families and never distributed to the workers.
Capitalism totally changed that.
Risk, reward and ruin were separated when joint-stock companies became more common. The prerequisite for successful entrepreneurship shifted from inheritance to initiative.
People without wealth could access it and start new ventures.
Founders started founding new companies.
Equity compensation kicked off in the 1950s but it really went into overdrive when it was mixed with high-growth technology companies backed with high-risk equity bets. Silicon Valley perfected the art. Employees at many of the most successful technology companies became owners.
The SEC did two huge things this year. They raised the crowdfunding limit to $5m and introduced a proposal to allow gig workers to receive stock.
I predict that we will see competitors to Airbnb, Uber and DoorDash all take advantage of this
SEC: proposed pilot program to allow tech companies to pay gig workers up to 15% of their annual compensation in equity rather than cash https://t.co/EJjLWQatcr
— Jesse Walden (@jessewldn) November 24, 2020
Don't pay R2000 to register your small business. It is only R175 to do it yourself.
Easy as ABC. How to do it.
[THREAD]⚠️
#LockdownLevel3
#Bushiri
#RamaphosaChallenge
Go online to the website of CIPC and register a new company for R175, registration is R125 and the name is R50.
Go to https://t.co/RJcCHvdgCl which is the easiest website vision for CIPC.
Easy as ABC. How to do it.
[THREAD]⚠️
#LockdownLevel3
#Bushiri
#RamaphosaChallenge
Go online to the website of CIPC and register a new company for R175, registration is R125 and the name is R50.
Go to https://t.co/RJcCHvdgCl which is the easiest website vision for CIPC.