BC ECONOMY
Saved by @SteveeRogerr

1/ Trend Factor: Any Economic Gains from Using Information over Investment Horizons? (Han, Zhou, Zhu)

"A trend factor using multiple time lengths outperforms ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal, which are based on the three price trends separately."

https://t.co/udkvsdw2Lz

 2/ This resembles combining multiple measures of ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal (forecasts determined by walking forward rather than using signs from the full sample).

Unlike normal moving average signals, these are *cross-sectional.* More below:
https://t.co/wkIFLg9jtK
3/ Unsurprisingly, the Trend factor formed by this approach outperforms benchmarks in terms of both Sharpe ratio and tail metrics. It's combining momentum with two factors that are negatively correlated to it AND using multiple specifications.

More here:
https://t.co/x8Tloz3iyL
4/ "Average return and volatility of the trend factor are both higher in recession periods. However, the Sharpe ratio is virtually the same.

"Interestingly, all of the factors still have positive average returns.

"Momentum experiences the greatest increase in volatility."
5/ "In terms of maximum drawdown and the Calmar ratio, the trend factor performs the best.

"The trend factor is correlated with the short-term reversal factor (35%), long-term reversal factor (14%), and the market (20%) but is virtually uncorrelated with the momentum factor."
6/ "The trend factor has a higher return during recessions, while momentum earns a small positive return b/c the short leg is a bit more negative than the long leg. Similar conclusions hold for expansions. This is why the two factors are not correlated over the entire sample."
7/ "The trend factor outperforms the momentum factor not only in terms of average returns, but also in terms of downside risks during months when the momentum factor performs poorly."
8/ "The hypothesis is strongly rejected that the trend factor is inside the mean-variance frontier of the short-term reversal, momentum, and long-term reversal factors for all three periods."
9/ "Overall, the trend factor, which utilizes price information across all the investment horizons, seems to place more emphasis on short-term price patterns than on the intermediate and long-term ones."
10/ Table 9: "While the market beta and SMB beta are U-shaped, the HML beta is hump-shaped across the quintiles. Hence, the trend factor has a small loading on the market and insignificant SMB and HML betas in the Fama-French three factor model."
11/ "The results suggest that small stocks and low priced stocks are more trending. This may be intuitively true: large stocks have more analyst following and more investors, and hence more information transparency and faster price movements to reflect available information."
12/ "A certain smoothing of the betas is necessary to maintain the out-of-sample performance of the trend factor.

"The betas do change substantially over time, varying from positive values to negative ones."
13/ "Performance decreases as the market size increases. However, even for the largest stocks, the superior performance of the High-Low spread portfolio is stat. & economically significant.

"Performance remains largely unchanged after controlling for other firm characteristics."
14/ "ER12trd has a significant and positive coefficient, indicating that the trend signals can predict future cross section returns independent of size and B/M. This is consistent with Table 11.

"Similar results are obtained when other variables are added to the regression."
15/ "It is not an easy matter to short all the stocks in the short leg.

"We have to have detailed information on which stocks can be shorted and then estimate the costs. While our evaluation based on the BETCs shows profitability potential, it is limited in scope."
16/ "The performance of the trend factor is not driven by a few outliers but is remarkably stable over time.

"Our trend factor passes the higher bar given in Harvey, Liu, and Zhu (2016) easily with a t-statistic of 13.6 (the momentum has a value of 6.04)."
17/ "The trend factor is clearly valid internationally, yielding the best performance among all the three factors and the local market indexes."
18/ "Table 15 reports the performance of the trend forecasts under different levels of information uncertainty.

"The Fama-French alphas increases as information uncertainty increases."
19/ "The trend factor performs better in explaining the industry returns than the momentum factor.

"The trend factor improves performance in terms of explaining the cross-section returns of the six size and book-to-market portfolios."
20/ "While the momentum factor together with the CAPM is far from sufficient in explaining the hedge fund returns, the trend factor performs still slightly better than the momentum factor in that task."
21/ "While our methodology here is focused on using price trends across investment horizons, it can also be applied to examine other economic fundamentals, such as firm earnings, profitability, growth, and investment patterns, over short and long terms."
22/ Related research:

Industry Long-Term Return Reversal
https://t.co/fuR5VsLB7l

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@Belposto_korea
Little history of QFS

Let’s put all this Woo Woo stuff aside and find out what the QFS has been doing over the last two years or so. It has been very busy.

Those involved in using this computer have learned how to “connect” into the archaic Central Bank computer(s) system. Through the SWIFT transfer protocol used by the Central Banks (CB),/2

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Richard Murphy
Richard Murphy
@RichardJMurphy
I keep hearing people complain that the ‘mainstream media’ does not understand economics and that we’re talked down to as if everything must be explained as if the economy is a household. In this thread I explain all you (and they) need to know. Economics in one thread then....

Very few people seem to understand how money is created. Mainly that’s because when they’re told it seems so simple that they can’t believe something that’s so important that we’re willing to pay a lot to get it is created so easily. This thread explains how money is created.

What this thread also explains is that if we understand money we can completely reimagine how the economy really works, which is the pathway to rebuilding from the mess we are in. Which makes this a pretty big deal. I make no apology for its length as a result.

Let’s start at the very beginning. A person goes into a bank and asks for a £1,000 loan. The bank checks them out, and agrees. And that is all that it takes to create new money. Money is just a promise to pay. That simple exchange of promises is all it takes to create it.

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Ricardo Reis
Ricardo Reis
@R2Rsquared
** MMT is the new supply-side economics
Forty years ago, some economists started from an uncontroversial (but important) result: a lower tax rate raises the tax base, so revenues won't fall as much. But then they ran with it, predicting tax rate cuts could raise revenues.

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The 80s supply-siders went to the limit and came up with a motto: lower taxes will lower deficits as a norm, not an exception. Many economists shouted this was backwards. It was an implausible limit case. Textbooks called them "charlatans and cranks" or "silly".
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In 80s debates, supply-siders would often fall back to "you don't understand me", repeating "Laffer curve!" endlessly, or stating vacuous accounting identities about how the government collect taxes. Their extreme prediction was repeatedly proven wrong by theory and data.
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But they had popular hero figures (Laffer, Moore), and an eager political audience that would use any argument to cut taxes. Eventually, they inspired new good research, and helped in swinging the pendulum of policy debates to include some valid supply considerations.
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Yet, supply-side economic ideas also contributed to a massive rise in US public debt in the last 40 years. Right-wing governments became as prone to have large public deficits as left-wing governments, in the pursuit of cuts in taxes.
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Sean Casten
Sean Casten
@SeanCasten
Expect to see a lot more stories like this. But let's also use this to have a more sophisticated conversation about why the rising tide of cheaper, cleaner energy - like all prior energy transitions - doesn't necessarily lift all boats. Brief thread:

1/ First to state the obvious: the domestic fossil fuel industry in the US wouldn't exist without massive subsidies. $650B/year according to the IMF.

2/ That in turn means that the transition to cleaner, cheaper energy is delayed by those market distortions. Taking away the subsidies is smart economic and environmental policy. It is FANTASTIC that @POTUS is doing so.

3/ But it is paternalistic and naive to assume that workers in those displaced industries will have an easy transition. Knowing how to run an oil rig is a highly specialized, highly skilled job. Gaining that skill set takes time and is geographically specific

4/ The fact that there will be economic gains in other sectors doesn't imply that a 55 year old who planned to work for another 10 years can simply take a correspondence course in thin film deposition and move to the solar industry.
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Ben Norton
Ben Norton
@BenjaminNorton
Priyamvada Gopal is part of a class of elite academics in the imperial core who teach the ruling class, and use woke radlib rhetoric to justify current Western imperial aggression.

She echoes propaganda against Syria, Iran, and China and is silent about Venezuela, Nicaragua, etc


Anti-anti-imperialist Cambridge University Professor @PriyamvadaGopal smears opponents of the Western neocolonial war on Syria as "Assadists"

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This was elite anti-anti-imperialist Cambridge University gatekeeper @PriyamvadaGopal's response right after colonial powers the US, UK, and France bombed Syria in April 2018 on bogus lies that have since been


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Those who sold L @ 660 can always come back at 360. Those who sold S last week can be back @ 301
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Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
KANAKA DURGAMMA, VIJAYWADA (AP)
#bharatmandir

Ma Kanakadurgeswari is the supreme Goddess of Andhra Pradesh, seated atop the Indrakilaparvatha at Vijayawada.
This area is called Bezawada as Shiva made a bejjam (hole) in the rocks so that Krishna river could flow freely.


Once, a Rishi Indra Keela prayed to Devi and asked her to reside on his head forever. Devi told him to wait in the form of a mountain in the holy plains of River Krishna.
Later, when Devi killed all demons, she settled on Keeladri as Mahishasura Mardini and fulfilled his wish.


In this place, Arjuna performed penance and fought with Shiva, who had appeared in the guise of Kiratha to win Pasupathastra, the most powerful weapon. So this place is also called phalguna theertha and Vijaywada on account of Arjun’s victory.


Adi Sankaracharya visited this shrine and worshipped the Devi. He installed SRICHAKRAM at the feet of Sri Kanaka Durga.

Adjacent to the Kanakadurga shrine is the shrine of the divine consort-Sri Malleswara Swamy on the Indrakeeladri.
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அஸ்தினாபுரத்து அரசி👸...
@SivaRoobini555
#தினம்_ஒரு_திருவாசகம்
தொல்லை இரும்பிறவிச் சூழும் தளை நீக்கி
அல்லல் அறுத்து ஆனந்தம் ஆக்கியதே – எல்லை
மருவா நெறியளிக்கும் வாதவூர் எங்கோன்
திருவாசகம் என்னும் தேன்

பொருள்:
1.எப்போது ஆரம்பித்தது என அறியப்படமுடியாத தொலை காலமாக (தொல்லை)

2. இருந்து வரும் (இரும்)


3.பிறவிப் பயணத்திலே ஆழ்த்துகின்ற (பிறவி சூழும்)

4.அறியாமையாகிய இடரை (தளை)

5.அகற்றி (நீக்கி),

6.அதன் விளைவால் சுகதுக்கமெனும் துயரங்கள் விலக (அல்லல் அறுத்து),

7.முழுநிறைவாய்த் தன்னுளே இறைவனை உணர்த்துவதே (ஆனந்த மாக்கியதே),

8.பிறந்து இறக்கும் காலவெளிகளில் (எல்லை)

9.பிணைக்காமல் (மருவா)

10.காக்கும் மெய்யறிவினைத் தருகின்ற (நெறியளிக்கும்),

11.என் தலைவனான மாணிக்க வாசகரின் (வாதவூரெங்கோன்)

12.திருவாசகம் எனும் தேன் (திருவா சகமென்னுந் தேன்)

முதல்வரி: பிறவி என்பது முன்வினை விதையால் முளைப்பதோர் பெருமரம். அந்த ‘முன்வினை’ எங்கு ஆரம்பித்தது எனச் சொல்ல இயலாது. ஆனால் ‘அறியாமை’ ஒன்றே ஆசைக்கும்,, அச்சத்துக்கும் காரணம் என்பதால், அவையே வினைகளை விளைவிப்பன என்பதால், தொடர்ந்து வரும் பிறவிகளுக்கு, ‘அறியாமையே’ காரணம்

அறியாமைக்கு ஆரம்பம் கிடையாது. நமக்கு ஒரு பொருளைப் பற்றிய அறிவு எப்போதிருந்து இல்லை? அதைச் சொல்ல முடியாது. அதனாலேதான் முதலடியில், ஆரம்பமில்லாத அஞ்ஞானத்தை பிறவிகளுக்குக் காரணமாகச் சொல்லியது. ஆனால் அறியாமை, அறிவின் எழுச்சியால், அப்போதே முடிந்து விடும்.
ALL
Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
KANAKA DURGAMMA, VIJAYWADA (AP)
#bharatmandir

Ma Kanakadurgeswari is the supreme Goddess of Andhra Pradesh, seated atop the Indrakilaparvatha at Vijayawada.
This area is called Bezawada as Shiva made a bejjam (hole) in the rocks so that Krishna river could flow freely.


Once, a Rishi Indra Keela prayed to Devi and asked her to reside on his head forever. Devi told him to wait in the form of a mountain in the holy plains of River Krishna.
Later, when Devi killed all demons, she settled on Keeladri as Mahishasura Mardini and fulfilled his wish.


In this place, Arjuna performed penance and fought with Shiva, who had appeared in the guise of Kiratha to win Pasupathastra, the most powerful weapon. So this place is also called phalguna theertha and Vijaywada on account of Arjun’s victory.


Adi Sankaracharya visited this shrine and worshipped the Devi. He installed SRICHAKRAM at the feet of Sri Kanaka Durga.

Adjacent to the Kanakadurga shrine is the shrine of the divine consort-Sri Malleswara Swamy on the Indrakeeladri.
ALL
Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
SRI BANKEY BIHARI JI, VRINDAVAN (UP)

Very famous Krishna Mandir where Bankey Bihari Ji is worshipped and looked after as a child.
Bankey means “Bent at three places”.
Thakur Ji was worshipped in Nidhivan till 1863. This mandir was constructed in 1864 by Goswamis.
@LostTemple7


Legend says that Swami Haridas used to worship Krishna in Nidhivan.
Once, his curious disciples entered the forest but they were almost blinded by bright, intense light. Upon knowing this, Swamiji himself went there and after his requests, Krishna appeared with his consort.


Krishna, then, left back this black charming murti,which we see now, before disappearing.
A curtain is drawn before the murti after every 15-30 second. It is said that if one stares long enough into the eyes of Shri Banke Bihari, the person would lose his self consciousness.


Bankey Bihari Ji sports a flute only once a year on the eve of Sharad Purnima.
Darshan of His lotus feet can be done only on Akshay Tritiya every year.
There are no loud bells here and
no early morning Darshan can be done so that child Krishna’s sleep is not disturbed.
ALL