Overall there will be a lot more people in hospital because far more of the population is unprotected.
NEW: people worry when they hear "40% of hospitalisations are fully vaxxed", but this chart shows that's actually good news.
The more people you vaccinate, the higher their share of hospitalisations, but the *total* number in hospital is a fraction of what it would otherwise be
Overall there will be a lot more people in hospital because far more of the population is unprotected.
Focus on whether the hospitalisation rate is 270 per million or 684 per million.
All the data we have suggests vaccines are working remarkably well. Far beyond what had been hoped for a year ago.
For example, a fully-vaxxed 80-year-old now has the same risk of dying from Covid as an unvaxxxed 50-year-old. That's an enormous drop in risk!
If it weren't for vaccines, more Covid patients would have been admitted to hospital yesterday than at the height of the winter peak. Instead we're 75% below it.
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Breaking—UK scientists just reported a case-control study that the mutated UK 🇬🇧B.1.1.7 variant is not associated w/ more severe #COVID19— “found no significant differences in hospital admissions and case fatality at 28 days, & occurrence of reinfections”, says @mvankerkhove
2) That said, the new UK mutated strain is a more transmissible (contagious) variant. Keep transmissibility and illness severity separate. They are two different things. Don’t get them confused.
3) The new UK variant severity study is included in today’s WHO report, to be released soon this afternoon according to WHO sources. Waiting for it to drop. I’ll keep folks posted on the details.
4) Update: here is UK Technical report on #SARSCoV2 variant of concern (B.1.1.7) in 🇬🇧 with prelim findings from their case-control study of no increased severity for the new variant that I reported yesterday.
5) Also keep in a mind that a virus that spreads faster (more contagious) yields much worse total outcomes than a virus that is just merely more severe.
All things equal, a new mutated variant that is more contagious & no more severe is worse. And that is what we now have.
2) That said, the new UK mutated strain is a more transmissible (contagious) variant. Keep transmissibility and illness severity separate. They are two different things. Don’t get them confused.
3) The new UK variant severity study is included in today’s WHO report, to be released soon this afternoon according to WHO sources. Waiting for it to drop. I’ll keep folks posted on the details.
4) Update: here is UK Technical report on #SARSCoV2 variant of concern (B.1.1.7) in 🇬🇧 with prelim findings from their case-control study of no increased severity for the new variant that I reported yesterday.
5) Also keep in a mind that a virus that spreads faster (more contagious) yields much worse total outcomes than a virus that is just merely more severe.
All things equal, a new mutated variant that is more contagious & no more severe is worse. And that is what we now have.
Why a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more transmissible would in general be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly. A short thread... 1/
— Adam Kucharski (@AdamJKucharski) December 28, 2020
A teachable moment for Bayesian reasoning – when one study finds a result that's massively different than all the others, and, moreover, conflicts with what we know about the science, there's a pretty good chance it's either a fluke or it's wrong.
The Israeli estimate of relatively high immune escape from Delta that a lot of you were freaking out about now looks like it was the result of sloppy statistical analysis. https://t.co/F5sHsJDFF1
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 28, 2021
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5 webinars/conclaves since May 2020 and over 100 stock ideas shared. Still not enough :)
Twitter should be like that airport shuttle service, the moment you walk out (start following someone) - there should be a chauffeur (new stock idea) ready to drive you to your destination!
[Free CDMO Masterclass #18] https://t.co/208eQbYKEF
[Free Art of Investing] https://t.co/bHvUqnpiTE
[Paid IIC Dec 2020 on SeQuent] https://t.co/3iDO438Et9
[Charity fund raise on Unseen Trends in Biotechnology] https://t.co/eNi1x1qwhH
[Q&A on APIs]
Twitter should be like that airport shuttle service, the moment you walk out (start following someone) - there should be a chauffeur (new stock idea) ready to drive you to your destination!
[Free CDMO Masterclass #18] https://t.co/208eQbYKEF
[Free Art of Investing] https://t.co/bHvUqnpiTE
[Paid IIC Dec 2020 on SeQuent] https://t.co/3iDO438Et9
[Charity fund raise on Unseen Trends in Biotechnology] https://t.co/eNi1x1qwhH
[Q&A on APIs]
The YouTube algorithm that I helped build in 2011 still recommends the flat earth theory by the *hundreds of millions*. This investigation by @RawStory shows some of the real-life consequences of this badly designed AI.
This spring at SxSW, @SusanWojcicki promised "Wikipedia snippets" on debated videos. But they didn't put them on flat earth videos, and instead @YouTube is promoting merchandising such as "NASA lies - Never Trust a Snake". 2/
A few example of flat earth videos that were promoted by YouTube #today:
https://t.co/TumQiX2tlj 3/
https://t.co/uAORIJ5BYX 4/
https://t.co/yOGZ0pLfHG 5/
Flat Earth conference attendees explain how they have been brainwashed by YouTube and Infowarshttps://t.co/gqZwGXPOoc
— Raw Story (@RawStory) November 18, 2018
This spring at SxSW, @SusanWojcicki promised "Wikipedia snippets" on debated videos. But they didn't put them on flat earth videos, and instead @YouTube is promoting merchandising such as "NASA lies - Never Trust a Snake". 2/
A few example of flat earth videos that were promoted by YouTube #today:
https://t.co/TumQiX2tlj 3/
https://t.co/uAORIJ5BYX 4/
https://t.co/yOGZ0pLfHG 5/