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This #NewYear we must get serious about climate change. A big obstacle: our brains.

Current risks are vastly different from our ancestors, but our brains are wired the same. Knowing the science behind decision-making helps us better talk about climate threats & spark action. 1/

I’ve dedicated my career to understanding what factors influence our perceptions of risk & shape behavioral outcomes, especially around climate action.

We clearly do not judge risks accurately. Let’s try this example. What is more likely to kill you:

Ppl often say shark attacks even though plane parts are 30x more likely to kill us. Attacks are more sensational/easier to recall.

Brains react in certain ways to risks around us, rapidly scanning environmental cues (e.g. snake’s stance) with subliminal and automated processing.

How does brain wiring relate to climate action? We're influenced by triggers such as if we can see risk or if we trust who communicates it to us.

Bluntly, we overestimate unserious risks like vaccinating children and underestimate seemingly far away risks like rising sea levels.

Sociology shows how even political identities influence risk perception. A human evolutionary trait allows us to avoid cognitive dissonance from info 1) that isn’t pleasant or 2) contradicts beliefs integral to our identity/tribe. We’re wired to make snap judgements for comfort.

Now, before the stupid conservatives begin sneering and laughing AGAIN about climate change and a massive snowstorm, one more time trying to educate:

A warming climate causes extreme weather events, *including* huge snow and plunging temps. 1 example why: (Note: I realize.../1

...that no matter what is said, anti-science and arrogant conservatives who failed high school science will still sneer and laugh because this is more complicated than "temp goes up, it gets cold. HAHAHA!" Plus, they don't wont read anything longer than 20 words. But this.../2

...will at least help reply to their foolishness.)

Here is what is happening right now: there is a large area of low pressure and cold air at both poles. That cycles around the poles and is contained there by higher pressure surrounding it. However, a warming planet changes.../3

...that. The higher pressure/low pressure contains the cold air, but as that warms, what essentially serves as a fence weakens. Plus, simultaneously, the warmer climate is changing the jet stream. Even before this, sometimes the contained area expanded and hit the jet stream.../4

...which brought the polar cold down, thus plunging temperatures. However, with a warming climate - because of the change in pressures and the moving jet steam - the polar air is coming down more frequently. A few years back, *Texas* was hit by polar air. That's how far down.../5

A brilliant talk that punctures current discourse on climate ambition in Scotland, setting out what's really needed, by @KevinClimate for @ScotClimateCA

📽️ https://t.co/i02FtSkJT8 📽️

Well worth watching. Otherwise, here's a summary thread 👇
1/10

Want scientific assessment of what Scotland should do to achieve Paris Agreement temperature targets? Look to carbon budgets. See that a failure to rapidly reduce emissions will eat up the carbon budget in just a few years, leaving impossible burdens for future generations. 2/10

Are UK emissions down 45% in 30 years? Not when including emissions from aviation & shipping, and imports & exports – then they are only down 10%. Over three decades, we have had reductions of less than 0.5% per year. 3/10

Scotland’s average per person consumption emissions are still double the global average. Scotland’s consumption emissions have not meaningfully reduced in the last 20 years… 4/10

Principles of global equity and justice mean that Scotland’s fair slice of the global carbon budget is just a few hundred million tonnes of CO2, which is less than ten years of Scotland’s emissions at current levels. 5/10