With ~$ 150 Mn invested till 2017, we see $ 525 Mn rushes in after 2018
#PolicybazaarIPO Long thread: There is monetary printing by RBI, there is lending by banks & finally there is the Indian IPO. “Foreign owned” company with ~1 Bn investment is selling “Indian” unicorn to “savvy” Indians for $ 6.2 Bn. Want to know how this printing works? Let’s go-
With ~$ 150 Mn invested till 2017, we see $ 525 Mn rushes in after 2018
Enter IPO bankers a couple of months later & they value the company at $ 6.2 Bn
What kind of a favor is that? Why do they need US investment bank for this just before IPO?
Without bonus issue in June 2021, each share would have costed Rs 50,000. Heard of circular valuation?
The DRHP devotes significant weight to mark & Sullivan report on Indian insurance. See the snapshot below:
It adds reasons – under-penetrated market, demographic dividend, need for life insurance, blah blah. So what’s wrong with this?
Life insurance was to grow 8 times from 2011 to 2020 to a premium of Rs 20 lac Cr
Most within industry know that it not feasible. But it does help bullish IPO, never mind
Let’s examine this myth in view of life insurance that is almost ~60% of revenue for PB. Life ins is a people intensive push business.
How can #policybazaar scale digitally when 65% costs are employee expenses?
Revenue = Salesmen x policies sold x avg premiums. Can't beat this equation. Have you ever bought a ULIP on your own?
But magically, the promotional exp reduce in IPO year. How? Ask Zomato & Paytm. Same trick.
Assume a 15% profit margin in distant future, the PE works out at ~ 306. So how about banks that earn similar revenues from brokerage?
PolicyBazaar with just Rs 1000 Cr (fee income) revenue is asking $ 6 Bn !
First, PB is 70% insurance biz. Second, the PB revenues have been growing on “outsourcing services” & “Online consulting”. What's that story
If banks can’t have loan growth, brokers like #paisabazar can’t grow more on their backs.
Suddenly, revenue seems to go up with a fall in employee costs & promotion expenses. This one-year fall raises more questions than it tries to answer
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So I'd recommend reading this thread from Dave, but I thought about some of these policies, and how they fit into the whole, a lot, and want to offer a different interpretation.
I think California is world leading on progressivism that doesn't ask anyone to give anything up, or accept any major change, right now.
That's what I mean by symbolically progressive, operationally conservative.
Take the 100% renewable energy standard. As @leahstokes has written, these policies often fail in practice. I note our leadership on renewable energy in the piece, but the kind of politics we see on housing and transportation are going foil that if they don't change.
Creating a statewide consumer financial protection agency is great! But again, you're not asking most voters to give anything up or accept any actual changes.
I don't see that as balancing the scales on, say, high-speed rail.
CA is willing to vote for higher taxes, new agencies, etc. It was impressive when LA passed Measure H, a new sales tax to fund homeless shelters. And depressing to watch those same communities pour into the streets to protest shelters being placed near them. That's the rub.
It's very in vogue to bash California and this doesn't even reach to some things that deserve scorn, like the continuing control of the Western States Petroleum Association and the state Chamber of Commerce in policymaking. And yet-https://t.co/vHZ6GM7QF8
— David Dayen (@ddayen) February 11, 2021
I think California is world leading on progressivism that doesn't ask anyone to give anything up, or accept any major change, right now.
That's what I mean by symbolically progressive, operationally conservative.
Take the 100% renewable energy standard. As @leahstokes has written, these policies often fail in practice. I note our leadership on renewable energy in the piece, but the kind of politics we see on housing and transportation are going foil that if they don't change.
Creating a statewide consumer financial protection agency is great! But again, you're not asking most voters to give anything up or accept any actual changes.
I don't see that as balancing the scales on, say, high-speed rail.
CA is willing to vote for higher taxes, new agencies, etc. It was impressive when LA passed Measure H, a new sales tax to fund homeless shelters. And depressing to watch those same communities pour into the streets to protest shelters being placed near them. That's the rub.
Facebook originally a CIA program called "LifeLog".
LifeLog, via DARPA, terminated on Feb 4th, 2004.
Facebook was launched on Feb 4th, 2004.
Many of the LifeLog team became execs at FB.
Zuckerberg is a figurehead.
CIA allowed Cambridge to help Trump win
https://t.co/enzOXDCogV
Pentagon Kills LifeLog
LifeLog, via DARPA, terminated on Feb 4th, 2004.
Facebook was launched on Feb 4th, 2004.
Many of the LifeLog team became execs at FB.
Zuckerberg is a figurehead.
CIA allowed Cambridge to help Trump win
https://t.co/enzOXDCogV
Project: Lifelog
— Robert Horan (@Robby12692) December 13, 2018
Started by DARPA in 1999, the goal of Lifelog was to create a database on civilians without their knowledge, and track everything they do.
The project "ended" on Feb 4th, 2004.
Facebook began the exact same day.
The CIA funneled tens of millions into Facebook. pic.twitter.com/r7hwF0v9kh
Pentagon Kills LifeLog