Thread on Invisible China: Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell's illuminating and scary deep dive into rural China's ills and stark inequality. No matter how bad you think it is, it's worse there---more like a developing country than a global superpower. 1/n

2/Rozelle rolled up his sleeves to understand the CN most only see from plane or train windows. Issues in health and education, bringing down human capital of 300m rural Chinese, could trap it in middle income status.

Think future like Mexico/Turkey now, not Korea/Taiwan

3/Most focus on impressive elite universities and high schools topping int'l rankings, but CN average education levels are abysmal.

Only 30% of China's working age pop completed high school--last place for all middle income countries, worse than many poor countries!

4/TIL a startling fact: school in CN through grade 9 became free & mandatory only in 2006! Even today high school is not free in CN! Want to go through grade 12? Pay fees of 10-15x incomes for poor rural areas. Instead they drop out to work unskilled jobs. Xi has promised to fix

5/No country has escaped middle income trap below 50% HS grad rates, and avg for successful countries (now high income) is 76%. Why? HS skills not important for repetitive assembly jobs, but w/o ability to learn & basic skills in math and reading, can't do more productive jobs

1 So, today we turn to early Islamic Beirut. what do we know of the earliest times of #Beirut under early Islamic rule, starting with the #conquest. How and when did Beirut enter the emerging Muslim empire? -rm

2 Let’s start with traditional sources for the early Islamic period. Of those, only al-Balādhurī (d. ca. 892), the Abbasid scholar, is informative. Other Muslim and non-Muslim sources including al-Ṭabarī's Tārīkh are silent on the matter.-rm

3 In his small tome, Futūḥ al-Buldān, al-Balādhurī tells his readers: “After the conquest of Damascus, Yazīd came to Sidon, ʿArqa, Byblos, and Beirut which lie on the sea coast with his brother Muʿāwiya leading the van of the army.”-rm

4 Hence, the men who conquered Beirut were Yazīd b. Abī Sufyān (d. 639) and his half-brother and future caliph Mu‘āwiya (r. 661-680). The date of the conquest of the coast falls between 636 and 639 at the latest, the date of the death of Yazīd in the plague of Emmaus. -rm

5 Yazīd and the Muslim army likely took the coastal road to Beirut, a path taken by numerous armies before. They would have either swung from Damascus to Baalbek through the Hims gap to ‘Arqa, then Byblos, crossed the Dog River, and arrived at the eastern side of Beirut.

EFCC Arraigns Man over N6.2m Forex Deal in Uyo

The Uyo Zonal Office of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC on Monday, January 25, 2021 arraigned one Inibehe Ndarake Eden before Justice F. O. Riman of the Federal High Court sitting Uyo, Akwa Ibom State.

He was arraigned on a one-count charge bordering on obtaining by false pretence to the tune of N6,200,000.00 (six million, two hundred thousand naira).

The defendant allegedly obtained the said sum from one Inime Marcus Umanah sometime in July 2017, on the pretext that he will invest it for him in forex trading.

Umanah, according to his petition dated May 17, 2019 alleged that he agreed to invest the money because of the profit sharing formula of 80% and 20% for investor and trader respectively...

...and that he will also be getting 30% of the invested capital monthly, through his trading system, Eden System-FX.

BJP is planning to undertake 'Rath Yatra' in Delhi's riot-affected areas to seek donations for Ram Temple on Feb 1. In 1990, L.K. Advani had launched Rath Yatra from Somnath to Ayodhya.

This thread covers the large scale killing which took place during the Yatra and it's impact.

Between April 1989 and April 1990, 262 people died in Gujarat, mostly were Muslims. In October 1990, days after Advani’s yatra began, 41 were killed in Ahmedabad. The same month, 52 were killed in Jaipur, 20 in Jodhpur, 33 in Lucknow, over 100 in Delhi, 37 in Assam,

[1]

18 in Patna and 165 in Hyderabad. Also in October, a pogrom against Muslims in Bhagalpur, Bihar, saw 960 killed in which 900 were Muslims. In November, 31 were killed in Agra, again mostly Muslim and 13 in Indore. In Dec, 60 were killed in Karnataka and 134 in Hyderabad.

[2]

Many parts of India remained tense for long periods of time. Between April and May 1990, three riots in Kanpur killed 30; between May and November 1991 more than 50 were killed in Varanasi. In May 1991, 26 including 24 Muslims were killed in Vadodara.

[3]

In October 1992, 44 were killed in Sitamarhi. On 6 December 1992, immediately after the Babri Masjid was destroyed, pogroms against Muslims broke out in Surat where 200 died, of whom some 95 per cent were Muslims. In Bhopal in December, 143 were killed.

[4]

🔴🔴Syria's Kurds ready to get in bed with their worst

Last week, SDC's rep. Sihanouk Dibo stated that they would announce the signing of a new memorandum of understanding with a Syrian opposition party. Yesterday, Ilham Ahmed said that they are planning to hold a national conference for all Syrian opposition forces this year...

These rapprochements might be applauded by Western powers that advocate for regime change, but are disturbing for people in the region. After all, these are the same forces the Kurds have been fighting off for years, and that have taken large swats from the lands they held.

Areas such as Ras al-Ayn, Afrin, Tal Abyad and Suluk, which were previously under Kurdish control, have been violently taken and occupied by the same ‘Syrian opposition’ the SDC now wants to cooperate with.

Dozens – if not hundreds – of civilians and Kurdish fighters were killed in these clashes, and I can only imagine how the families of the victims of these radical groups will feel about the prospect of cooperation with their killers.

Slavery by philanthropy. China offers help to Africa to gain voting power and maintain its hegemony.
@MichaelPSenger @stacey_rudin @randyhillier @katewand

"African allies -- which have crucial voting rights at major international bodies -- have arguably become an even more vital bloc for China to keep on side with its so-called vaccine diplomacy."

Why Does Wang visit African countries every year?

"According to the China Africa Research Initiative, Chinese loans to Africa dropped from $29.4 billion in 2016 to $8.9 billion in 2018."
"[Wang] postponed the repayment of interest-free loans from China that matured at the end of 2020"

When loans are postponed, this comes at some price; usually, its' sell your soul to the devil.

Xi Jinping's speech at Davos boiled down to: The world has no choice but to do business with China, and if you want to do business with China, you need to stop criticizing our tyranny and questioning our lies about the

Xi's address to the World Economic Forum will serve as well as any other moment for historians to mark the beginning of the Authoritarian Era. He said nothing new, but he restated the narratives and demands of Chinese fascism from a post-pandemic position of aggressive strength.

For the first time, Xi spoke to a world that is beginning to accept the tenets of authoritarianism, thanks to the incredible political and economic damage from China's coronavirus. China's ideals have become as viral as Covid-19.

Thanks to the pandemic, the political elites of the world now universally see their citizens as dangerous mobs that must be tightly controlled for their own good. Most of them always thought that way, but now they can say it openly and act aggressively on their prejudices.

Xi clearly stated that China will not be contained, censured, or judged for its actions. He denounced Western ideals of human rights as "arrogance" and imperialism. After Covid and Biden's inauguration, he sees no nation with the strength or will to thwart China's ambitions.

Nigerian Armed Forces Remembrance Day.

In Nigeria, Armed Forces Day, also known as Remembrance Day, is celebrated on January 15th. The day is marked with a Remembrance Day parade at the Cenotaph in Abuja and in the 36 state capitals. The ceremony includes a 21 gun salute, playing of the Last Post,

a minute's silence, laying of wreaths and release of pigeons to symbolise peace.

Officers and men of the Nigerian Armed Forces have fought in various wars and taken part in many peace keeping operations, defensive duties and internal security duties. These include

Wars including:

The First World War
The Second World War
The Nigerian Civil War

Peace keeping/enforcement operations in

The Congo
Tanzania
Liberia
Sierra Leone
Lebanon
Darfur
The former Yugoslavia
Mali

Defensive duties including

The Bamileke Rebellion
Chadian Invasion (1982/83)
The Bakassi Peninsula Territorial Dispute with Cameroon

Internal Security duties including

The Tiv Rebellion
The Western Region Crisis
The Niger Delta Crisis (1992-2009)
The Boko Haram Insurgency.

The Law of the Value Chain

I was at a courier company on Saturday to send out a parcel to Abuja. This courier company actually started out as a transport company with buses going to different destinations in Nigeria.

Overtime, people sent parcels through the drivers to different destinations. The company saw an opportunity and started a courier and logistics company.

As the very courteous staff of the courier company attended to me, I saw her bring out different cartons to pack the items I was sending out. Several parcels were everywhere packed in those cartons.

I whispered to myself that production of packaging is another line of business that this company should go into- if it is not already into it. The company will produce for its own use-rather than buy from others- and also sell to other users of packaging materials.

From transport to courier to packaging- this is a simple explanation of value-chain activities.

I’ve thought long and hard about this. There is a constellation of circumstantial evidence around the most recently identified variant P.1, and what has been happening in Manaus, Brazil which makes me very seriously concerned. A thread 🧵

First Manaus has already been very hard hit by the pandemic. News reports in earlier stages told of rushed burials and bodies piling up

The crucial thing was the rapid rates of transmission, not really mitigated by ‘flattening the curve’ any. total per capita mortality was not as high as might be expected elsewhere, but only because the age structure of the population in Manaus skews young

(I just did the calculation, the numbers of deaths are quite consistent with independent estimates of age stratified IFRs as per

By October 2020, 76% of the population were estimated to have been infected. This is based on a convenience sample of antibodies found in blood donors. I don’t like convenience samples and the true figure might well be lower, but not a lot lower

Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 01/15/2021

1. It's time for the weekly "data from Sweden" thread.
This week 4 main things.
A. Increase in the number of reports
B. Deaths still being reporting back to mid-december
C. Comparing to France?
D. Data on school suggest closing would help.

Let's go!
⬇️⬇️⬇️

2. First, before this week, somehow the swedish public health agency did not consider COVIC too important and reported on deaths only twice a week.

3. I mentioned last week that things are being taken much more seriously now since the government has passed a new temporary law to allow them to close public places likely to spread the virus.

4. You can read more about it in a great article reporting on the Swedish situation with analysis from @FLAHAULT as well. It's all in French though, but would be happy to help if google translate is not enough.

5. If you've been following me before, you know that I have mentioned many this and all the other issues with the situation in Sweden before. You can find short sum ups in these two videos (also in French and with

It’s done. I’m a Sputnik now! I’ve just got my first shot of the Russin vaccine at a mobile vaccination station in Central Moscow. In there weeks I will get the second one. Now feeling a bit lightheaded, but that may be a psychological reaction. How was it and why I did it? /2

The station is located on the second floor of a big food court in a former trolleybus depot on Lesnaya Street near the Belorussian Railway Station. The for court itself was packed with people. Almost none wearing a mask. A paradise for each virus. The vaccination was very.../3

…well organised. Very nice and polite people, explaining everything. Smooth workflow. All in all I needed about an hour. Coming without any advanced reservation, I had to fill out some forms, see a doctor and get the shot. My foreign passport didn’t raise any questions./4

The vaccination was for free. This is one of six such mobile station in Central Moscow, which began to work at the beginning of this week. Why did I take the Russian vaccine? First: I have no other choice, if I don’t want to go to Germany and wait there for probably a long…/5

…time, may be until summer. Second: I saw some friends and colleagues getting vaccinated and all went without any complications. Third: Some of my friend here are doctors. They all got the vaccine, assuring me that it is at least save. Whether it will help as much as the…/6

Man Jailed Ten Years over Farming Scam in Kaduna

Justice Darius Khobo of State High Court sitting in Kaduna on January 22, convicted and sentenced one Kamilu Tukur Ruma to Ten years imprisonment for obtaining N742,000 (Seven Hundred and Forty-two Thousand Naira) from one Zainab Garba as investment in a phony farming business.

After paying the said sum, Garba discovered that the farm land situated at Rigachukun Kaduna which the convict showed her, belonged to someone else.

The charge reads, “that you Kamilu Tukur Ruma sometime in April, 2018 in Kaduna within the Kaduna Judicial Division of the High Court being entrusted with the sum of N742,000,00 (seven hundred and forty two thousand Naira) by Zainab Garba...

...for the purpose that the money will be invested in farming business located at Rigachukun, Kaduna dishonestly converted the said money to your own use in violation of legal contract which you made in regard to the sum...

This week data from all Brazilians were leaked, and when I say "all", it is in the literal sense. The refinement and depth of this data are frightening. @carissaveliz @TweetinChar @johnchavens @DorotheaBaur @privacyint @maria_axente 1/n 👇

There is still no certainty about where the data leaked, but there are suspicions (still not confirmed) that they are from Serasa: an Experian company in Brazil. The leak was of everything imaginable of 220 million inhabitants. 2/n 👇

Being all citizens, this includes ordinary citizens, including minors, police, ministers, presidents, judges, military, deputies, senators, judges, businessmen, religious leaders, people with disabilities, etc. But what kind of data? 3/n 👇

The list is really big: full name, date of birth, home address including lat/lon, social security numbers, ID, driver's license, relatives up to the 3rd degree, credit score, bank account, employer history, salary, working hours per week... 4/n 👇

...car brand, color, plate, chassis, phone number, phone provider, billing, credit score, social class, companies you own or have participation, where and when you graduated, 401(k), IRS, consumer behavior...well, think of any data, and it seems to be there 5/n 👇

1) Let's talk about social-commerce, limitations of growth for a community and why there is no good Chinese Instagram equivalent.

In modern China, XiaoHungShu aka Little Red Book aka RED is no longer the Mao manifesto, but rather a shopping app.

2) XHS was founded by friends Miranda Qu and Charlwin Mao in 2014. Initially, it was conceived as a travel app, the founders wanted something that let them know what spots were cool and what goods to get when they're abroad

3) For context, I would say shopping abroad has been a major Chinese middle-class hobby due to:
1) Perception that foreign goods are of higher quality
2) Cheaper prices for equivalent goods relative to China as no import tax
3) Verified authenticity

4) XHS tapped into this desire by creating an online community where people can share details of what they brought and where. In elaborate posts with multiple accompanying pictures. Showing off your lavish life while being helpful is fun.

5) After building up a robust and lively community among mostly affluent young women, XHS moved into cross-border commerce in 2015. Now rather than just looking at the pretty items from France, you can buy them.

2022 Japanese Government (MEXT) undergraduate Scholarship

Duration- 5 years, beginning in April 2022
For those majoring in medicine, dentistry, veterinary medicine or a six-year course in pharmacy, the term of the scholarship is 7 years.

(The first year is language training.)

For students who are willing to pursue an undergraduate degree in Humanities, Social Sciences, and Natural Science at a University in Japan, the Ministry of

Education, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Government of Japan is offering undergraduate scholarships.

Award: Monthly allowance of JPY 117,000 (445,071.36 Nigerian Naira) and other benefits like travelling expenses, supplemental regional allowance, transportation allowance and

Application period-Recruitment for those arriving in Japan next April is made between April and May of the previous year. First screening is conducted between May and August by the Japanese Embassies or Consulates General.